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Jan 23-24 Winter Storm Potential


Ollie Williams

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The Tues 12z & Wed 0z Model Suites trended colder overall to include some parts of the SE areas *outside of the mtns* potentially seeing a threat of wintry weather for Friday & Saturday.

The 0z GFS was the warmest solution (that seems to be its bias, as stated by others) But it still continued to trend slightly colder (NAM as well)

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The CMC has a 1030 HP sliding into position along the lee side of the apps locking in cold air for CAD areas. Mixed bag of wintry weather.

 

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Euro ensemble looks rock solid for WNC.  KAVL has 47/50 showing accumulation for the 23rd-24th with 44/50 showing +2".  The Deterministic is up above 6" and the ensemble average is just above 5".  Boone has 49/50 seeing the storm and many of those members go over the 10" mark with the Monday clipper.  If cold air can get itself in place over WNC, I think we see a pretty decent event up here in the mountains. 

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Euro ensemble looks rock solid for WNC. KAVL has 47/50 showing accumulation for the 23rd-24th with 44/50 showing +2". The Deterministic is up above 6" and the ensemble average is just above 5". Boone has 49/50 seeing the storm and many of those members go over the 10" mark with the Monday clipper. If cold air can get itself in place over WNC, I think we see a pretty decent event up here in the mountains.

Mountains and foothills have to like where we are sitting right now

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Depends of your location in the foothills. Sitting in the southern end gives. Major sense of uncertainty in this type of setup.

Sent from my iPhone

  Trends have been positive overnight (couldn't have been worse yesterday), but I'm still very worried about temps.  850's look warm.  

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I am not ruling out a front end thump of snow for the northern upstate. Mid/upper levels look potentially cold enough until midmorning Friday. The bigger concern during that time is/was low level temps; however, the models are tending much colder at the surface in response to the wedge. The Euro and CMC now have the northern upstate staying in the mid 30's all day Friday.

 

In my experience, a finger of precip often outruns the model output in these type setups. If we could get some steady precip in here from 3am to 7am we might have a window for a quick thump of snow, before the upper levels warm.

 

Wish thinking... I know!

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I am not ruling out a front end thump of snow for the northern upstate. Mid/upper levels look potentially cold enough until midmorning Friday. The bigger concern during that time is/was low level temps; however, the models are tending much colder at the surface in response to the wedge. The Euro and CMC now have the northern upstate staying in the mid 30's all day Friday.

In my experience, a finger of precip often outruns the model output in these type setups. If we could get some steady precip in here from 3am to 7am we might have a window for a quick thump of snow, before the upper levels warm.

Wish thinking... I know!

Very accurate explanation for this local area.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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HKY was up to 4" on the EPS mean.

so is it looking more and more now like a snowstorm for some folks?  think I'm reading that this is trending colder and the precip is more north and west now.  if so will this start in the wee hours of Friday morning say around 3?

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