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Winter Storm Threat: Jan 23rd-25th 2015


John1122

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All the models seem to show the deform band giving some decent snow to a good portion of the area Friday night into Saturday. Normally wouldn't be exceptional but for many it may likely still be the most snow they've gotten this season,

In 4 years, perhaps
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I'm really hoping we get some surprises but modeling is not looking too great for more than a dusting across the area, with the exception of higher elevation areas.  The 12z RGEM is a tad more optimistic with some 2 inch splotches.

 

Through 48 hours:

 

yAWf7C5.jpg

 

I think that is what may make this storm fun, is the potential for surprises.  Without a strong enough cold high to the north to funnel in cold air we have to rely on the storm dynamics, and marginal diurnal temps to really get anything.  Though I can remember a few times having storms in this similar type of position and forecasts as rain then within the Low rounding the bend heading NE, that it strengthened more rapidly than generally modeled or expected, and the storm pulling just enough marginal cold air down to the surface to get heavy wet snow.  I think at least for East Tennessee that is where we are, we have to hope for that scenario, but those surprises/storms are rare in my years following storms.  My hopes for this winter are still pinned on end of the month beginning of February.

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Friday looks warmer everywhere, but hope springs eternal Friday night and Saturday morning east. I'm looking for all rain Friday except northwest Tennessee into Middle Kentucky where snow mix in is probable. It is a common pattern when the Tennessee Valley is slightly too warm. I believe the models have Friday handled quite well.

 

After the main slug Friday, a weak deformation zone might come across Friday night. Couple models forecast a separate weak comma head early Saturday morning. Currently the deformation zone is in central Texas and the comma head is in New Mexico as a separate piece of energy. Models are really struggling with the evolution of both. Some have the deformation zone falling apart over the Mid-South and the comma head shearing out. Others hold both. Third scenario is the deformation zone fizzling, but the comma head finding new life over the Valley; perhaps the latter is when the Carolina trough starts to strengthen. In all cases surface is above freezing if snow falls.

 

Local offices Memphis, Nashville and Morristown have good forecast discussions. Upper Plateau to Tri Cities could see light sticking snow late Friday night into Saturday.

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Have to like the looks of that if you're in SW Virginia and Eastern Ky..Hopefully the GFS is finally coming around..

 

Shoot yeah, I hope you cash in buddy.

 

I just noticed the 18z GFS meteogram shows 5.5 inches for TYS around 6z Saturday lol.  Of course that probably Cobbs out at about zero but it's still funny to see.  If the temps were any more marginal they'd have to release the prog on ruled loose leaf notebook paper.

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I'm not feeling any accumulation for the Valley (Chatty, TYS, TRI). Just too warm for the main slug of moisture and probably too warm for the deform band too. Just sad to waste the perfect track with crappy temp profiles.

Jax and John I hope y'all can cash in. I think y'all have the potential for a few inches with the back edge.

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I'm not feeling any accumulation for the Valley (Chatty, TYS, TRI). Just too warm for the main slug of moisture and probably too warm for the deform band too. Just sad to waste the perfect track with crappy temp profiles.

Jax and John I hope y'all can cash in. I think y'all have the potential for a few inches with the back edge.

 

It depends on how heavy the deformation band is. I wouldn't be surprised if a dusting to a half inch happened in the valley just due to moderate snow falling.

 

Or it could be wishful thinking.

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It depends on how heavy the deformation band is. I wouldn't be surprised if a dusting to a half inch happened in the valley just due to moderate snow falling.

Or it could be wishful thinking.

Yeah it could happen and be heavy enough for a slushy inch or so. I think the GFS supports that more than the NAM. The GFS is has been more robust today with the back edge than the NAM. Which is weird since normally it is the NAM over doing things. We could see some sleet or snow with the leading edge here in a couple hours. Radar looks promising for a brief shot for folks in middle TN.

At least we finally have something to follow. This winter has been so bad that we haven't even got the chance to get hosed yet. (Lucy and the football) lol

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