Jb1979 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's a boatload of ice/sleet for almost everyone here. Surface never gets above freezing anywhere in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 question for pro's ......the warmer waters off the east coast are going to play some kind of role, grant it not 80 degree water but above normal for any storm that rides up to coast to blow up, how is that factored into the models and is that something that causes concern even for the clipper to blow up and over-achieve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS holds serve... a bit closer to the Euro but pretty much right over the benchmark.... Mostly snow for the city.... mix to snow coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Oh man storm number 2 on Mon-Tue is looking SO close to being a huge storm on the 0z GFS. The temp profile looks so much better and it could very well be a snowstorm from the Carolinas all the way to NE. Mt. Holly is much more bullish on the early week storm then they are for Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GGEM has joined the weekend party SECS'y Big cities slammed with 12" MECS Sweet run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GEFS are beautiful for everyone as well. Most members support that GGEM CCB and argue it should have been stronger on OP Gfs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GGEM has joined the weekend party SECS'y Big cities slammed with 12" MECS Sweet run I can't really see it on these plots what does the temp profile look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I haven't seen the temps but its, at best, an inch of QPF on the GGEM. Any temp issues and its definitely not a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If this snowmap is accurate, then the GGEM is quite a bit colder then the other models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0z ECM excellent benchmark track strong storm and wound up tight gradient hurts N&W locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0z ECM excellent benchmark track strong storm and wound up tight gradient hurts N&W locations Just how bad does it hurt us lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just how bad does it hurt us lol Sent from my iPhone This. Crazy it looks like it takes a really nice track. Closer to the coast than it's been with this storm why is the precip shield to the NW weak? I can only see the 24 hr panels on Tropical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This.Crazy it looks like it takes a really nice track. Closer to the coast than it's been with this storm why is the precip shield to the NW weak? I can only see the 24 hr panels on Tropical...[/quote Based on snow maps NYC: 7" (Jackpot zone) PHL: 5" ABE: 2.3" MPO : 1" Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This.Crazy it looks like it takes a really nice track. Closer to the coast than it's been with this storm why is the precip shield to the NW weak? I can only see the 24 hr panels on Tropical...[/quote Based on snow maps NYC: 7" (Jackpot zone) PHL: 5" ABE: 2.3" MPO : 1" Sent from my iPhone uug lack of a decent ccb is perplexing to say the least. All i can say is still a couple days away from getting nailed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 And on that note, the euro has the Tuesday storm as a coastal scraper, with ocean points in jackpot zone. 1" in PHL Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 6z NAM is wingdinger... 11" ABE PHL: .2" ZR - 7" snow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 6z GFS is a coastal scraper... quite a bit east of 0z... looks alot like the 0z Euro actually... Verbatim it's at most 6" for the i95 corridor.... mixing/rain to snow jersey shore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Last leg of a mid shift, well it was interesting night. Got a nice spread from the western NAM and from the looks of the mean some EC ensemble members, warm and wet. Now we have the OTS 06z GFS and of course everyone's favorite the CMC snowstorm. If I had to take something away from tonight/ this morning was that the models are really speeding up the pattern so far with everything. Dewpoints start in the 20's, a little evap cooling and some dynamic cooling occur to try and offset WAA. Really going to need a solid CCB. EC lacked this and was warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 typical model back and forth swings.. my gut tells me the overall pattern favors a more inland track. (compared to 0z GFS and ECM) No strong High around to push things out. wouldn't even surprise me if models eventually track too far inland / warm. 6z NAM...even though 'its the nam' ...might actually have the best idea so far. temps will be close either way.. since it's workin with a leftover arctic airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This. Crazy it looks like it takes a really nice track. Closer to the coast than it's been with this storm why is the precip shield to the NW weak? I can only see the 24 hr panels on Tropical... Thank the GL low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z GFS continues to be east of 0z only an advisory event in SEPA. 12z euro is huge on gleeming if we really have an east trend I don't trust the new GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Doubt the euro comes in east. Not with the nam, cmc, cras, others super amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Doubt the euro comes in east. Not with the nam, cmc, cras, others super amplified. Even the Navgem came back north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Even the Navgem came back north Now that is a positive sign. I had wanted to see the NAM further N&W at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z GGEM and UKMET are solid SECS hits. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Canadian is so tight it's snow to ice in SEPA. JMA also a coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z GGEM and UKMET are solid SECS hits. Nice lots of warmth on the cmc probably a few hours of poo in and around the city at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z ECM perfect track expansive CCB. MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z ECM perfect track expansive CCB. MECS Yea...solid run for sure. Storm can make up for the entire winter YTD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yea...solid run for sure. Storm can make up for the entire winter YTD. January 1987 style hit this run but not as cold as that storm. One of my favorite storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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