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Coastal low 1/24 can this get winter going?


Mitchell Gaines

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I was a little lost after the break-up :) But this is home...

 

I also like that ray is calling for 4 in his backyard, and I can't recall him ever busting too low...

I was just saying the EC had 4.  My actual range is 1-4.  So, they'll get at least 1 (though the other day I had 1-2 and they got a half)

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Not such great NWS office collaboration, as often happens along I-95 between Middlesex County in the Mt. Holly CWA and Union/SI in the Upton CWA.  1-2" for my area in northern Middlesex, adjacent to 3-4" amounts immediately to our north and east and you'd figure we'd get at least what SI gets, given that we're further inland at the same latitude.  They do have 0.10-0.25" of freezing rain falling in our area, though, which would surprise me.  

 

http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

 

StormTotalSnowRange.png

 

 

StormTotalSnowRange.png

 

StormTotalIceWebFcst.png

 
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18z GFS looks snowier on stormvista, 12z showed practically 0, 18z has philly in the 2-4" range

Not sure about that, it actually looks warmer to me... it has 850 at PHL +1 at 0Z and 6Z.  Based on the GFS, it probably wouldn't be pure snow to start, at least snow sleet mix if not plain sleet or rain.

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Not sure about that, it actually looks warmer to me... it has 850 at PHL +1 at 0Z and 6Z.  Based on the GFS, it probably wouldn't be pure snow to start, at least snow sleet mix if not plain sleet or rain.

 

I'm just going off the snow accumulation map on stormvista which is generally anti-snow biased...Not saying you're wrong, but there has to be a reason it shows more snow...Maybe more precip before the changeover?

 

12z:

XHjsu09.jpg

 

18z:

TAq5xbJ.jpg

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That's not apples to apples - that is Mt Holly's AM map - not the new one

 

 

Sorry bout that now its updated

 

No sweat - I've noticed some very funky behavior with those maps, in which I've double checked the timestamp, copied and pasted onto a post here and then noticed that the older version was copied or at least what I saw - wonder if it's cookies or something like that.  On the NYC page, the graphics are available in two places and I've seen them not be the same timestamp.

 

I just wish they'd have a very prominent link or icon right on the homepage of the site (plenty of space to the right of the CWA map), as there's probably nothing people look for more than those precip maps, especially snow.  It's annoying to have to make multiple clicks on obscure locations to get to what's critical.  

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Looks like I am right on the fence between snow and mix where Im at. Good luck NW friends!

Like myself you'll probably get 2" or so of snow...then ping...ping mixed w/snow...then ping...ping mixed wfrz /rain....then a little of all frz rain then all rain by 3-5am. Basically slop...

 

33.9F

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Not too sure about that wederwarrior....we are usually mighty close in weather being only about 20 miles from each other.....I think IP/ZR will make that verify on the low end of the current forecast. Snowing here now but.....thinking you may need to be a bit further NW then you and I if you want significant snow.

 

Optimistic with this one happening overnight.
Would really like to fire up the snowblower.

That said, I think 5" in the NW territories

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Ray,

Little OT but since you use the COD site I was wondering if you would answer a couple of questions. Is there any way to distinguish rain from snow and what do the yellows mean when using the Correlation Coefficient setting?

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12

 

Just looking at the CC product, it can be difficult, you kinda have to know in advance where things are going to set up.  Right now I can see an obvious snow to rain changeover with that rather narrow yellow line surrounded by reds in south Jersey, with a broader area of mixing further west, though that is likely due to the radar beam being higher in the atmosphere.

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Ray,

I agree I think the NAM is spot on here....I don't think we will see many reports anywhere near the high end of current forecasts. Wxsim has been mighty sure this all goes over to non-snow mighty quick. I doubt  the Wxsims current forecast of 2" before a significant ice event will verify.....but again I leave it to the professionals like you....I have been wrong too many times to count!!

 

Don't look at the new NAM, the warm air absolutely surges on it, at least for I-95.  If the NAM is right, my parents will be lucky to get an inch.

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Not too sure about that wederwarrior....we are usually mighty close in weather being only about 20 miles from each other.....I think IP/ZR will make that verify on the low end of the current forecast. Snowing here now but.....thinking you may need to be a bit further NW then you and I if you want significant snow.

I hear ya chesco

Should be a fun one to watch, regardless of totals.

I typically don't throw down a number, but feel like a snowblower could be in order for the cleanup tomorrow.

Bought it and used it on that thanksgiving 4" slop.

Just need an excuse to fire her up

Call it wishfull thinking, call it a wishcast, I'm all in.

Well... As much as 5" can be all in!

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http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12

 

Just looking at the CC product, it can be difficult, you kinda have to know in advance where things are going to set up.  Right now I can see an obvious snow to rain changeover with that rather narrow yellow line surrounded by reds in south Jersey, with a broader area of mixing further west, though that is likely due to the radar beam being higher in the atmosphere.

Thanks for the reply

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Don't look at the new NAM, the warm air absolutely surges on it, at least for I-95.  If the NAM is right, my parents will be lucky to get an inch.

 Ray - have always loved your very objective perspective, so let me ask: what do you think, especially for the Trenton to Woodbridge corridor (Mercer/Middlesex Counties near I-95)?  Lots of people quoting the HRRR as not changing over for NYC metro until close to 6" have fallen.  Looking at the temps and the radar showing things starting off as rain in South Jersey 10-20 miles SE of Philly (where I grew up, actually) makes me a bit nervous for getting more than an inch or two of snow in the Edison area.  

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