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Clipper snow disco and OBS Wednesday 1/21/2015


famartin

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I figured the numbers were bad across the board.   My basic point is just that it is a little too soon to call the wednesday event done.   I feel like someone will get a few inches from it, time will tell where the sweet spot is.

I vaguely recall that with the last clipper on the 6th, it wasn't obvious who might jackpot until maybe 36 hours out?

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I vaguely recall that with the last clipper on the 6th, it wasn't obvious who might jackpot until maybe 36 hours out?

 

The models overdampened the shortwave with that one and then started catching onto the idea it would stay stronger longer.  I think it also ticked north in the final 24-30 hours and even tracked more north in real time which it seems these things always do.  I think the 00Z Euro was on crack, when I got a look at the actual maps this morning it appears the system was about to turn up the coast but it shunts it east towards an offshore low where there is a convective blob.  Given the 12Z models I would not be surprised if the Euro comes in much weaker, but it may also be further north at the same time.

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12z GFS improved look indeed. I wonder if the new GFS will have the NS bias that the old one seemed to have. Is it hereditary? We may find out Wednesday.

OT for this thread, but meanwhile the 12z Euro (usually better with southern stream/coastal systems) brings the weekend system north enough to (as Ralph would say) raise an eyebrow.....getting closer anyway.

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12z GFS improved look indeed. I wonder if the new GFS will have the NS bias that the old one seemed to have. Is it hereditary? We may find out Wednesday.

OT for this thread, but meanwhile the 12z Euro (usually better with southern stream/coastal systems) brings the weekend system north enough to (as Ralph would say) raise an eyebrow.....getting closer anyway.

I still think that bias is present. Not a big fan of the new GFS.
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