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why I am NOT Bullish next 2 weeks on snow -


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Dave,

 

Wes did mention "some uncertainty" when he wrote his piece a few days ago. He also noted that the idea was contingent on the guidance being correct (AO-/PNA+ pattern), concluding, "If the mean patterns being forecast in the longer ranges by the European and NCEP ensemble are in the ball, always a big if, our snow chances should rise before the end of the month."

 

In any case, it will be interesting to see how things evolve.

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Dave,

 

Wes did mention "some uncertainty" when he wrote his piece a few days ago. He also noted that the idea was contingent on the guidance being correct (AO-/PNA+ pattern), concluding, "If the mean patterns being forecast in the longer ranges by the European and NCEP ensemble are in the ball, always a big if, our snow chances should rise before the end of the month."

 

In any case, it will be interesting to see how things evolve.

so far the lowest ao reading was -1.280 on 12/28/14...The highest AO minimums for the winter since 1950...

-0.318 3/4/1989...

-1.280 12/28/2014

-1.695 12/14/1974

-2.044 12/17/1972

-2.118 2/18/2000

-2.184 2/4/2007

-2.228 3/2/1993

-2.314 2/28/1998

-2.468 1/2/2008

-2.597 12/4/1991

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so far the lowest ao reading was -1.280 on 12/28/14...The highest AO minimums for the winter since 1950...

-0.318 3/4/1989...

-1.280 12/28/2014

-1.695 12/14/1974

-2.044 12/17/1972

-2.118 2/18/2000

-2.184 2/4/2007

-2.228 3/2/1993

-2.314 2/28/1998

-2.468 1/2/2008

-2.597 12/4/1991

The AO+ has been very impressive so far this winter. At this point in time, it will take a -2.046 average from today through 2/28 for a December-February average of -0.500. For a DJF average of -1.000, the AO will have to average -3.118 the rest of meteorological winter.

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I was basing the forecast on the euro ens mean which showed a negative AO but even if the Ao only goes negatvie for a couple of days, our winter chances aren't dead if the Pacific cooperates.  

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I'm  not sure why you deicded to drag my name into the thread.  Why not just put down your own thoughts before bashing mine.   You very well could be right about us not getting snow.  Any two week outlook is pretty much an educated guess.  If the PNA goes negative and the AO goes positive then my guess will be totally wrong, if the PNA is positive and the AO goes positive I'd still take my chances. If the ridge ends off the coast, then and we have a positive PNA, my forecast is dead unless the Eruo clipper verifies. 

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Using the strong -QBO alone for support for strong +AO or +NAO is questionable.

 

For December 2005, the QBO at 30mb was -25.05. Yet that same month the AO averaged -2.104 and NAO  -0.44.

 

More likely other factors such as weaker easterly QBO winds at 50mb, geomagnetic activity and lack of MJO/+ENSO forcing contributed to +AO or +NAO this winter.

 

We've seen decrease of geomagnetic activity and more tropical forcing that last few weeks. So there is reason to think AO/NAO state will at least oscillate going forward. This will at least open door a little more for more moderate or significant threats.

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wes I didn't mean to drag your name into it in a negative sense. I simply trying to generate some controversy and some debate. This is not intended as a form of disrespect at all. people come on my facebook page all the time and debate forecast issues and ideas with me all the time. again it is not my intention to piss you off at all... i will delete the thread if you so wish

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wes I didn't mean to drag your name into it in a negative sense. I simply trying to generate some controversy and some debate. This is not intended as a form of disrespect at all. people come on my facebook page all the time and debate forecast issues and ideas with me all the time. again it is not my intention to piss you off at all... i will delete the thread if you so wish

 

And I think there's a lot of people here who would rather you didn't.

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wes I didn't mean to drag your name into it in a negative sense. I simply trying to generate some controversy and some debate. This is not intended as a form of disrespect at all. people come on my facebook page all the time and debate forecast issues and ideas with me all the time. again it is not my intention to piss you off at all... i will delete the thread if you so wish

Dave, I'm not into generating controversy, I just want to try to convey thoughts about the weather.  Leave but I would appreciate that next time you disagree that you just post inside of the "offending thread" or in the CWg comment thread rather than starting one with my name on it. 

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no  it  wasnt ...
 

 from  my perspective ..on my facebook  page many   mets post   differing views..    Mike Masco (WBAL)     Chris Martucci (epwxa)
Al  marinaro  ( midwest wx)      Robert  Gamble ( wx south)  just to name a a  few.    

 

Still I should of  posted this thread differently 
 

It was disrespect

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And just to be clear I mean no disrespect by pointing out how ridiculously wrong your forecast is just trying to start some controversy

 

DT's arrogance has surely got the best of him and it really detracts from his abilities.  and a tip...keep the caps lock off...it's not controversial....its condescending.  

 

Nut

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yawn everyone busts on forecasts...

I was mostly just poking fun, you did open the door to criticism by poking at others. I have noticed that recently you seem to often be a little too liberal along the southern snow boundary of storms, especially when it's from northern Maryland through pa. Not a big deal as you are trying to forecast for a huge area. Most forecasters only have to worry about a more specific location or smaller region. Still I have noticed the trend to overdo snow on the south side
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DT's arrogance has surely got the best of him and it really detracts from his abilities.  and a tip...keep the caps lock off...it's not controversial....its condescending.  

 

Nut

what?  arrogance, arguing, controversial, what site are we one here Nut trails.com?  (inside joke)

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what?  arrogance, arguing, controversial, what site are we one here Nut trails.com?  (inside joke)

LMAO....well done!

 

I really like what DT throws it out there.....but don't like how....just should'nt come off as absolutes....not in this "sport" anyway.

 

Nut

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