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Potential Clipper Jan 21st 2015


metTURNEDpro

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Most global models are suggesting a clipper may drop southeast from the Alberta, Canada region on Wednesday, and redevelop off the coast off New Jersey. Euro seems cold enough but redevelops it kinda late, GFS was a tad warmer but many model runs to go. Please post your discussion down low and model runs... This is my first time making a thread and hopefully it's good luck. If we do end up getting snow please let me make the possible snow threads for this winter...haha

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Euro brings clipper furthur south and has it redevelop off Delaware coast. If this  happens  it will bring snows to NY/NJ.

 

This is a result of the Sunday storm shunting it south on the Euro.

 

Rossi

Plus an inverted trough feature hanging back across NJ.  That will move around on the models between now and Wednesday but something to keep an eye on

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The pattern to me argues that clipper should get its act together much better than most of the guidance has been showing, the Euro and GFS try desperately with it, but it never really comes to together, some of their ensembles however look better.

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I am more excited over the potential of this than any storm so far this winter...this one has the most potential I thing to trend stronger as we get into the next 2 days, the combination of the pseudo 50/50 and ridge out west enable the shortwave to dig. and it should take a near perfect track for us and has some potential to redevelop

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I am more excited over the potential of this than any storm so far this winter...this one has the most potential I thing to trend stronger as we get into the next 2 days, the combination of the pseudo 50/50 and ridge out west enable the shortwave to dig. and it should take a near perfect track for us and has some potential to redevelop

thats what I like to hear goose. At least we got the euro on board because GFS imo sucks. Hope it keeps trending stronger just looked at the euro it looks good for a moderate snow event...
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I am more excited over the potential of this than any storm so far this winter...this one has the most potential I thing to trend stronger as we get into the next 2 days, the combination of the pseudo 50/50 and ridge out west enable the shortwave to dig. and it should take a near perfect track for us and has some potential to redevelop

snowgoose any chance this thing blows up off the coast? I like the nam where it is at 84 hrs
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Is this definitely going to be all snow for the coast? As of now nws has a rain /snow mix and a high of 37 for western Long island!!!

i wouldn't worry about the temps, if the storm redevelops off the coast, dynamic cooling would lower the temperatures to 32 or lower for it to be all snow. If it fizzles it out like the GFS is depicting it to be than it'll be light taint snow showers not accumulating whatsoever! Hoping for a slower storm with a redevelopment off the coast of Jersey...
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I am more excited over the potential of this than any storm so far this winter...this one has the most potential I thing to trend stronger as we get into the next 2 days, the combination of the pseudo 50/50 and ridge out west enable the shortwave to dig. and it should take a near perfect track for us and has some potential to redevelop

I so appreciate mets like you that do not model hug but look at the overall synoptic pattern to prognosticate. That is true meteorology!

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Is this definitely going to be all snow for the coast? As of now nws has a rain /snow mix and a high of 37 for western Long island!!!

from Upton afternoon AFD

 

THEN CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH  

12Z ECMWF FORECASTING UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF...WITH  

MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT PASSING NEARBY OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY  

EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT IF IT DOES INDEED  

MATERIALIZE DUE TO ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. POPS UPPED FROM  

PREVIOUS...AND WITH COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...CAPPED  

POPS AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. ANY SHIFT IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL  

MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE...WITH EITHER CATEGORICAL POPS IN A LOW QPF  

EVENT...TO A DRY FORECAST.  

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from Upton afternoon AFD

 

THEN CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH  

12Z ECMWF FORECASTING UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF...WITH  

MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT PASSING NEARBY OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY  

EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT IF IT DOES INDEED  

MATERIALIZE DUE TO ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. POPS UPPED FROM  

PREVIOUS...AND WITH COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...CAPPED  

POPS AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. ANY SHIFT IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL  

MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE...WITH EITHER CATEGORICAL POPS IN A LOW QPF  

EVENT...TO A DRY FORECAST.  

Very nice AFD. Looks good to me, at least from this point in time.

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