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2015 Western Pacific Typhoon Season


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If this type of rapid intensification happened in the Atlantic, there would be quite a bit of talk about it. JTWC's prognostic reasoning for Tyhoon Goni (Warning #13).  Wind increased from 63 mph to 132 mph in a day.

TY GONI IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), INCREASING APPROXIMATELY 60 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 55 KNOTS AT 16/00Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.
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Amazing recovery by typhoon Goni, I can't post a longer loop but it had zero semblance of an eye just a few frames before the loop I posted above. Of course our old (and missed) friend Josh is there recording all the action in Ishigaki. There's a cool video on Facebook of the eye from the ground of one of the Japanese Islands and the lowest recorded pressure so far that I saw was 947mb and highest recorded gust so far was 132 mph. The JMA and JTWC currently have it at 80 and 90 Knots respectively which is likely a gross underestimation.

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Goni is gaining forward speed to the NNE which is abating negative effects of vertical wind shear. If anything, Goni is intensifying some. Inevitably, Goni will succumb to shear, but that doesn't look to be the case until after Kyushu has its strongest landfalling typhoon in many years as time is running out for significant weakening prior to landfall.

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Yeah, Goni has about run out of time to weaken. Cloud tops have even cooled some over the past few hours. Radar echoes in the eyewall have also strengthened, although at least some of that can probably be attributed to land friction. Goni has been camping out upstream of a jet streak ever since it started strengthening again near Taiwan, and the mass removal this jet streak has provided likely has been integral to Goni maintaining a higher intensity on approach to Kyushu.

 

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Impressive... Does anyone recall a typhoon this strong hitting Japan in recent memory? These radar echoes in the eyewall are super intense right now:

attachicon.gifgoni_landfall3.png

I know Japan had some majors make landfall in 2004, but I couldn't tell you off the top of my head if any have made landfall there at category three or above since then.

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I know Japan had some majors make landfall in 2004, but I couldn't tell you off the top of my head if any have made landfall there at category three or above since then.

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The last legitimate Category 3 at landfall I could find was Yancy in 1993. Looks like a lot of majors have weakened just prior to hitting Japan, including that 2004 season.

 

Edit: My bad. Looks like Typhoon Ma-on was the last Cat 3 when it made landfall in eastern Japan. That was in fact in 2004. So there we go.

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If it hasn't yet, it's awfully close. JTWC kept Goni at 110 kt at 18Z, so it is/will be a high-end category 3 landfall, and only 5 kt less than Yancy's landfall intensity from 1993. You could even make an argument for a 115 kt category 4 if you go by JMA since their 95 kt 10-minute sustained winds equate to T6.0 for them. Regardless, Goni is the strongest landfalling typhoon in Japan in many years.

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Dujuan is really strengthening now. Forecasts have the typhoon plowing straight into Taiwan now, and with it following the ridge axis south of the mid-latitude westerly shear, this could be a big time landfall.

 

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Euro looks like it beat the GFS on this one. Looks similar to the Soudelor now. 

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Here is an amazing visible satellite image of Typhoon Dujuan. This has intensified to a category 4 typhoon (115 knots)

 

 

2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM SOUTH OFKADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIXHOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH VERY GOOD BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 33 NM EYE; SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 261750Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A NEARLY CLOSED OFF MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW AS WELL AS THE BETTER SYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM.

 

 

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