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WPC and the models


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Uh, LOL, no they don't. You can see the GFS, NAM, etc status here & watch the products come out on NCEPs model site: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/#TARGET

Well thanks for the lol, but i didnt ask if they had access to completed runs, even if the gfs isnt finished, we can all see sundays rain. There is no "early" access at all, even to incomplete runs, is what im asking. Because that claim was just made in our subforum and i was 99.99% sure its incorrect.

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Since they aren't selling the data, there's really no incentive for them to sit on the data for several hours before releasing it to the public. Based on the timing of the status messages, it seems pretty clear that the initialization and forecasts are released more or less in real time. Either that or they have a very big and completely unmotivated conspiracy.

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Since they aren't selling the data, there's really no incentive for them to sit on the data for several hours before releasing it to the public. Based on the timing of the status messages, it seems pretty clear that the initialization and forecasts are released more or less in real time. Either that or they have a very big and completely unmotivated conspiracy.

That was my original thought when questioning it.

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WPC gets the NCEP models about when everyone else does.  As far as the Euro, not sure exactly of the timing but I suspect that paying customers get it a bit before WPC, as NCEP gets a push of the Euro from the EC, then it is processed in-house, then they see it in their system.

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WPC gets the NCEP models about when everyone else does.  As far as the Euro, not sure exactly of the timing but I suspect that paying customers get it a bit before WPC, as NCEP gets a push of the Euro from the EC, then it is processed in-house, then they see it in their system.

Do they not pay for the Euro as well?
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If you have any input regarding the original question I would love to hear it.

I don't really understand the question.  The GFS stuff starts running 2:45 after synoptic time (i.e. things start going at 14:45 for the 1200 UTC cycle).  This is two fold:

1) They are simply waiting for observations to arrive to do the assimilation.

2) There is a +/- 3 hour window (total of 6 hours) for observations to be assimilated for a particular cycle in the GFS.  In other words, all observations between 900 and 1500 UTC are assimilated into the 1200 UTC GFS.  There is no "early" access since there is nothing to access early.  Products are generated and disseminated to the appropriate (all) channels as soon as stuff is available. 

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I don't really understand the question.  The GFS stuff starts running 2:45 after synoptic time (i.e. things start going at 14:45 for the 1200 UTC cycle).  This is two fold:

1) They are simply waiting for observations to arrive to do the assimilation.

2) There is a +/- 3 hour window (total of 6 hours) for observations to be assimilated for a particular cycle in the GFS.  In other words, all observations between 900 and 1500 UTC are assimilated into the 1200 UTC GFS.  There is no "early" access since there is nothing to access early.  Products are generated and disseminated to the appropriate (all) channels as soon as stuff is available.

Thanks

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Here is another interesting question I have often pondered that has some contextual relation to the original topic at hand.

 

The 1630Z update of the convective outlook by the SPC is closely watched. It looks like the 12Z GFS products out to 24 hours are available by around 1540Z so the SPC forecasters might be able to get a quick look at that cycle before publishing their forecast. The 12Z ECMWF, on the other hand, isn't available until later though. So in this context the skill of the GFS at 12Z could be compared to the skill of the ECMWF at 00Z...the latest run available. Perhaps this is one area where the usual superior skill of the ECMWF is trumped by the GFS?

 

Comments? Opinions? 

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I don't really understand the question. The GFS stuff starts running 2:45 after synoptic time (i.e. things start going at 14:45 for the 1200 UTC cycle). This is two fold:

1) They are simply waiting for observations to arrive to do the assimilation.

2) There is a +/- 3 hour window (total of 6 hours) for observations to be assimilated for a particular cycle in the GFS. In other words, all observations between 900 and 1500 UTC are assimilated into the 1200 UTC GFS. There is no "early" access since there is nothing to access early. Products are generated and disseminated to the appropriate (all) channels as soon as stuff is available.

Thank you. My question was based on a comment by someone who claimed that the wpc had access to the 0z gfs and 0z euro runs for their update posted at 0254z.

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Has anyone seen or heard anything recent on when the GFS Ensembles will be running the higher resolution version?

GEFS will be upgraded on phase 2 of the operational supercomputer.  Last I heard (back in December), is that it was on the schedule for April or May of this year (T574 L64, Semi-Lagrangian, new IC perturbations, and other changes).

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Here is another interesting question I have often pondered that has some contextual relation to the original topic at hand.

 

The 1630Z update of the convective outlook by the SPC is closely watched. It looks like the 12Z GFS products out to 24 hours are available by around 1540Z so the SPC forecasters might be able to get a quick look at that cycle before publishing their forecast. The 12Z ECMWF, on the other hand, isn't available until later though. So in this context the skill of the GFS at 12Z could be compared to the skill of the ECMWF at 00Z...the latest run available. Perhaps this is one area where the usual superior skill of the ECMWF is trumped by the GFS?

 

Comments? Opinions? 

 

I would think that the 1630z outlook is composed taking more weight into current observations and trends than model data.  Not to say model data is useless or anything but at that point in the day you can probably have a better understanding of everything based on observations and trends...plus you have RAP/SREF runs, etc.  If previous Euro runs though seemed to be handling the evolution of everything well you could certainly compare the 12z GFS to the 0z Euro.  

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