NEG NAO Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 18Z GFS shows a potential coastal storm which is possibly going to be partially frozen according to the 18Z http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC WPC QPF http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1421278096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 We actually have a few real threats to track finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg tip for the late night model huggers -trade secret- The WPC has viewed the 0Z suite of models (GFS -Euro) ------ before this updated map was created and represents what their (pro forecasters) team feels is the best blend and trends from that guidance all the layers not just the op runs..... surface reflections do a spot check for yourself and save yourself some sleep dm 9khwbg_conus.gif This is most likely a rain storm for most of the area. I don't think anyone would disagree with that. The NW folks should keep an eye out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 How could they have seen a euro run that won't initialize for another hour and twenty mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 00z gfs has over a inch of rain for the area..994 into sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 56 for the public, access after 1:00am EST not for the WPC Youre going to have to provide a link to that. Im almost 100% sure this is incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Youre going to have to provide a link to that. Im almost 100% sure this is incorrect. He's completely incorrect! I posted in your thread in the discussion forum, you can see the NCEP models run status & watch the products come out on NCEP & other sites as they complete: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/#TARGET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 He's completely incorrect! I posted in your thread in the discussion forum, you can see the NCEP models run status & watch the products come out on NCEP & other sites as they complete: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/#TARGET Yeah, it sounded like bs to me, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Nothing you posted provided a link to them stating they get access to a model 3 hours before it runs. Sorry, im not "trusting" you, this is a science forum, so post appropriately, with the information to back up your assertions, or dont post them at all. What is 0Z UTC 7:00pm EST yes??? the have the maps posted (issued)at 0254UTZ three hours from the cycle start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 What is 0Z UTC 7:00pm EST yes??? the have the maps posted (issued)at 0254UTZ three hours from the cycle start Yes, the maps were posted at 9:54. 3 hrs before the 0z euro runs. You claimed they have seen the 0z euro. PROVE IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The sunday storm is probably rain for the coast . As John pointed out a day ago most of the precip falls in the warm sector and the surface is just too warm on the coastal plain. Like most storms this year snow should be confined to our NW suburbs as they prob change over towards the end. Be patient the one we want could b 8 days away. Sunday would b hard to pull off . Anything can happen but snow is not modeled for the city east as of now so I am not expecting any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 12Z NAM (out of its range) is a miss doesn't develop much of anything as that little low in southeast Canada is sweeping in the colder air http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011512&fh=78&xpos=0&ypos=300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This storm will likely be rain for the coast and maybe some mangled flakes towards the end. Most of the moisture is in the warm sector of this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The 12z GFS is a tick east of 06z and a tick colder, but most if not all of the precip falls in the warm sector. Now the Euro is pretty much by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The 12z GFS is a tick east of 06z and a tick colder, but most if not all of the precip falls in the warm sector. Now the Euro is pretty much by itself.how much qpf on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 how much qpf on the gfs For BDR: 0z run: 1.60" 6z run: 0.77" 12z run: 0.79" The 0z ECMWF had 1.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 The 12z GFS is a tick east of 06z and a tick colder, but most if not all of the precip falls in the warm sector. Now the Euro is pretty much by itself. as soon as the precip arrives on the 12Z GFS ( the new improved update ???)the 540 line crashes towards the coast - precip get no further west then extreme eastern PA - this needs to be watched in future runs to see how much cold air can get wrapped up in this system in the metro - lets see if the Euro starts moving towards the majority of the guidance http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011512&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=1100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 as soon as the precip arrives on the 12Z GFS ( the new improved update ???)the 540 line crashes towards the coast - precip get no further west then extreme eastern PA - this needs to be watched in future runs to see how much cold air can get wrapped up in this system in the metro - lets see if the Euro starts moving towards the majority of the guidance http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011512&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=1100 I think this is all or nothing meaning all rain or cirrus clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 I think this is all or nothing meaning all rain or cirrus clouds. not many systems that pass east of the metro with the 540 line east of NYC on January 19th with precip falling over the area is all rain - some part of the metro is going to see at least some frozen according to the 12Z GFS........details have to be worked out http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011512&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=1100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 not many systems that pass east of the metro with the 540 line east of NYC on January 19th with precip falling over the area is all rain - some part of the metro is going to see at least some frozen according to the 12Z GFS........details have to be worked out http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011512&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=1100 If you notice very little precip falls West of the storm center, most of it is confined to the north of the surface low. It's a progressive pattern and this is almost like a wave developing on a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 If you notice very little precip falls West of the storm center, most of it is confined to the north of the surface low. It's a progressive pattern and this is almost like a wave developing on a cold front. The Canadian is also in this camp, will be interesting to see if the euro follows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The Euro through 66 hours is much less amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Result is a weaker surface low that develops right on the NJ coast instead of inland. It would bring some snow or mixed precip to Western sections although the surface is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 QPF is about 1.00"+ from MMU East, a little more East of the GSP. 0.75"+ line is near TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The mid-level centers close off over Upstate NY, we need this to happen further South so that we can get a quicker developing surface reflection. That would help flip winds faster to out of the northeast and help with dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Surface temps are in the mid-upper 30's during the height of the event but the rest of the column is cold. Would think we could possibly wet bulb enough to get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The progressive NAVGEM is quite amplfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Surface temps are in the mid-upper 30's during the height of the event but the rest of the column is cold. Would think we could possibly wet bulb enough to get the job done. like I said in my previous post there will be at least a mixture somewhere in the metro if GFS and now Euro verify BUT the Canadian only has precip making it as far west as the jersey shore and NYC and points east http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011512&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Surface temps are in the mid-upper 30's during the height of the event but the rest of the column is cold. Would think we could possibly wet bulb enough to get the job done. From your euro post, it smells & sounds as if NW NJ may be able to hammer home a few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 From your euro post, it smells & sounds as if NW NJ may be able to hammer home a few inches of snow. but the euro is basically alone with significant precip making it that far NW - have to wait for the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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