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Winter medium range model pbp I


GaWx

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Here's a medium range pbp thread. This is for specific potential events that are getting a lot of attention but are more than 3 days away. Let's see if this works or not. Consider this an experiment. This is not for pattern discussion, ensemble discussion, and fantasy maps ( like day 10+ on op runs). That stuff is mainly for the pattern disc. or even banter in some cases. This is mainly for threats/near threats that have begun to repeatedly show up and have started to generate a lot of posts.

Opinions? Suggestions? Put it in banter.

 

 

EDIT: Bolded above edited by jburns

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12z EPS holds serve from previous runs, very nice mean track just east of HAT with a nice cluster between HAT and the mean.  The EPS mean snowfall is 1.5-2" still between INT-RDU and approaches 2.5 inches at the VA/NC border.  I didn't look at the 0z EPS but this looks similar to the 12z run yesterday, I think.   

 

Jackpot area is central VA to DCA where the mean has 2.5-3"

 

Some of the accumulation is the frzn potential on Wed.

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The CIPS analogs look fun, don't they, Pack?

 

Maybe we'll get a January 2000-like miracle shift at the last second? :weenie:

 

There's 87, 04, 10, just to name a few.  If we had a lot of luck we get could get snow out of this.  We have seen many of these potential events the timing be just off and miss us.  Atleast something to root for, long shot, very long shot, but wouldn't be impossible I guess.

 

Edit:  A victory to me would be a dusting-1" on grassy/elevated surfaces, snow for a couple of hours.

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desperately need a pattern change before we waste the whole month of January.  we normally at least have some fantasy storms by now.  what ever is happening we need it to stop so we can get some cold air and storms at the same time.  this may have well been october with the boring weather.  :violin:

 

LOL, it's a fairly sucktastic winter so far, even some red taggers on other regional forums that have been preaching patience and laughing at the weenie meltdowns that started a week or so ago  are starting to melt down.  On some good news, last nights EPS run was the first run that I can remember in a long time where it has the AO going negative, around day 12.

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looks like only Rain Cold to me

Yeah, surface temperatures are awful. Oh, well, toss 'em!

 

The 12z GGEM took a substantial jog northward.  Throws precip into to a line from maybe GSP to RDU.  The 850 line sags to CAE to maybe Wilson.  I think surface temperatures are too warm, so it's not snow for anyone, though.

 

The 12z UKMET appears to be improved, too.  You can actually see a solid LP way off the coast at hr 120 whereas last night's run never even formed a solid LP.

 

We might be able to reel in this rainstorm!

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