SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 And that's ok, we can work with that down here, IMO. That's especially true if we can get a moderate to strong negative AO. It can vary, that pattern was great in the SE last year but not so much in 1993-94 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 If today is a my indication, we might have some surprises this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 It can vary, that pattern was great in the SE last year but not so much in 1993-94 though. Yeah, that was a really icy year down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 If today is a my indication, we might have some surprises this winter.my oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Burger - check the run date/times for the GFS Para. I don't think it is updating and you are getting the same runs. Looking at ensemble trends, it appears to me that the Atlantic ideas have trended toward the Euro with the -NAO spike being rather brief....and the Pacific ideas have trended toward the GFS with the stout and favorably oriented -EPO ridge. Didn't even notice that. Looks like it's updating now. 6z is very CADish for that time period on the PARA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Well, so much for the warm CFSv2 Jan fcast. It has solid cold in the E US now and the coldest anomalies on the planet. 1939-40 type winter still possible based on this! Day by day evolution of Jan fcast as it got colder over last week: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201501.gif It also has drier than normal for the SE outside of SE GA and FL though it often takes only one major winter storm to make it a memorable winter for much of the SE US and cold is much more crucial than wet based on history. Example: Feb. 1895 was quite dry in ATL with only 2". Yet, it is the snowiest month in ATL history with 11.6" from 3 storms! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201501.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Well, so much for the warm CFSv2 Jan fcast. It has solid cold in the E US now and the coldest anomalies on the planet. 1939-40 type winter still possible based on this! Day by day evolution of Jan fcast as it got colder over last week: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201501.gif It also has drier than normal for the SE outside of SE GA and FL though it often takes only one major winter storm to make it a memorable winter for much of the SE US and cold is much more crucial than wet based on history. Example: Feb. 1895 was quite dry in ATL with only 2". Yet, it is the snowiest month in ATL history! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201501.gif Was about to mention the same thing. CFS looks great for Jan. Also just to give people an idea of what I look at in the morning is an archived look at all the model run composites. Not sure if this is unique to SV but it makes it totally worth the price.I can only see the the runs from the day before so it's hard to say how good it will look from today and last night's runs. Looking over the last few days the Euro ENS is slowly trending towards the GFS with more cold centered towards the east. We'll see what happens but I've been very encouraged with the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Burger/folks, As mentioned, the CFSv2 has the coldest anomalies on the planet for Jan in the E US with some of the SE being a whopping 3-4 C below normal or 5.4-7.2 below!! That's a heck of an anomaly for a monthly forecast, especially with the start still being 12 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I wonder if the CFS is dry because the cold is overwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I wonder if the CFS is dry because the cold is overwhelming. It could be since Arctic air is dry by nature. However, I'd welcome that opportunity. The very cold Feb. Of 1895 was like that (only 2" of rainfall ATL) and yet it produced three snowstorms there adding up to a whopping 11.6" there, the snowiest on record! Besides, a cold winter would mean a lot of excitement, regardless, though I'd strongly prefer we also get one or two nice winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 It could be since Arctic air is dry by nature. However, I'd welcome that opportunity. The very cold Feb. Of 1895 was like that (only 2" of rainfall ATL) and yet it produced three snowstorms there adding up to a whopping 11.6" there, the snowiest on record! Larry, I'm with you. I'll take all the cold air I can get and settle up with moisture later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Sharp drop on the 1hpa and 10hpa zonal wind forecast today,this is a good sign.Need to see more. Helps promote displacement PV's/blocking later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Most memorable storms (and thus winters) occur in winters which were not wall to wall cold. At least its not looking torchy for Christmas! Bring on January. I think we're going to have some ripe opportunities for some big ones next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Sharp drop on the 1hpa and 10hpa zonal wind forecast today,this is a good sign.Need to see more. Helps promote displacement PV's/blocking later. Might be onto something there... Certainly agrues for how December's turned out so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Am I the only one intrigued by the CAD on Monday and the possibility of some ice in prime NC CAD locations? I'd give it a 50/50 chance as of now. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 12z GFS looks interesting for the Christmas storm. Slower and looks a little deeper on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 992 low over the lakes...wow. Also some energy on the backside...might give a little more on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 12z GFS looks interesting for the Christmas storm. Slower and looks a little deeper on the backside. That's what....well, you know where I'm going. Man, I'd love to see a look in the medium and long range like the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 12Z looked like maybe some snow shower on the back side christmas day for wnc central nc. Cud it be cold chasing moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Looks like the GFS has an ice event after the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Is it just me or is the 12z GFS running really slow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Looks like the GFS has an ice event after the new year. Damn SV is only on hour 123. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Damn SV is only on hour 123. I'm at 135 on SV and they're usually the fastest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I'm at 135 on SV and they're usually the fastest. I'm using straight extracted data from AccuWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Looks like the cold tries to dump in the west again!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Ever since the ncep server problem, the ncep sites have been the fastest for both gfs's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I think the models look pretty good, if you ask me. Thanks Larry, Burger for the maps today. Queencity, I agree with you as well, I think the Christmas storm is going to have some fun surprises. If the the warm sector doesn't get too muddied, and the storms don't get super crazy over the Gulf, someone is going to have some fun svr weather out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Ever since the ncep server problem, the ncep sites have been the fastest for both gfs's. You see HM mentioning 79? That would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Well, so much for the warm CFSv2 Jan fcast. It has solid cold in the E US now and the coldest anomalies on the planet. 1939-40 type winter still possible based on this! Day by day evolution of Jan fcast as it got colder over last week: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201501.gif It also has drier than normal for the SE outside of SE GA and FL though it often takes only one major winter storm to make it a memorable winter for much of the SE US and cold is much more crucial than wet based on history. Example: Feb. 1895 was quite dry in ATL with only 2". Yet, it is the snowiest month in ATL history with 11.6" from 3 storms! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201501.gif The CFS' forecast for extremely dry conditions doesn't make much sense to me given the pattern it's predicting. A huge -EPO block would allow for strong disturbances to undercut the ridge and move into the Southeast, potentially producing wintry weather given the degree of cold the CFS is forecasting. But when does the CFS make sense anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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