IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Right over New Orleans at hour 111. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Quite a bit flatter at H5 than 00z as the run goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 @120 you have a 1010 low right over the center of the FL panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 hr 123 near the Florida, Georgia line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z ECM is much weaker and much further south than the 00z so far. The differences at 500mb are really drastic with this run being much less organized and flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Tremendous differences at H5 once you get beyond hour 102. Much flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Hour 129 near Charleston. Probably going to be a swing and a miss this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 THE 12Z EURO IS south BECAUSE at 126 hrs the 12z euro STILL has the 50/ 50 Low in place over se canada... that in turn forces southern Low to stay More south great for dt LAND.. but I think this is wrong...I dont think the 50/50 low will stay there THAT long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Hour 135, just southeast of OBX, and 138 just east of OBX, and then it goes northeast from there with most of the precip offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 THE 12Z EURO IS south BECAUSE at 126 hrs the 12z euro STILL has the 50/ 50 Low in place over se canada... that in turn forces southern Low to stay More south great for dt LAND.. but I think this is wrong...I dont think the 50/50 low will stay there THAT long Have you looked at the differences at H5? The differences from 00z start at hour 96 regarding the amplification of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 (500mb comparison centered on 12z Saturday) Yesterday's 12z: http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/American%20Stuff/ecmwf_z500a_eus_7.png Todays 12z: http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/American%20Stuff/ecmwf_z500a_eus_6.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 People really thought the euro was going to keep the same solution? This solution is a lot colder along the coast with a big storm just offshore. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 hr 144 200 miles east of Norfolk....light snow up to about ttn.. Delmarva and Va get a good snowstorm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 People really thought the euro was going to keep the same solution? This solution is a lot colder along the coast with a big storm just offshore. Good run. It's a lot colder because the storm is so far offshore, if you tracked it closer to the coast you would warm. Also, it's terrible looking at H5. I'm shocked it was able to pull out such a good looking system given the mess aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 hr 144 200 miles east of Norfolk....light snow up to about ttn.. Delmarva and Va get a good snowstorm.. How far north does it come with light snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Somehow it manages to close off at hour 144 after the system is well southeast of us which is why it suddenly begins bombing out. The whole thing just looks so odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 It's a lot colder because the storm is so far offshore, if you tracked it closer to the coast you would warm. Also, it's terrible looking at H5. I'm shocked it was able to pull out such a good looking system given the mess aloft. H5 didn't look terrible at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 How far north does it come with light snow? It barely brushes the area. Less than 0.10" for all, and less than 0.05" for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 How far north does it come with light snow? Ttn..that's it. It's a gorgeous evoloution aloft, just off a bit. Everyone should be excited at that look. Plenty cold also. All the major players still there also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 H5 didn't look terrible at all. look at the trough here and look at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Somehow it manages to close off at hour 144 after the system is well southeast of us which is why it suddenly begins bombing out. The whole thing just looks so odd. It's a pretty good look...I can't understand why u think it's odd. Pretty classic look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 It's a pretty good look...I can't understand why u think it's odd. Pretty classic look Because we went from a negatively tilted trough at 00z to a flat neutral trough this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yes, a gorgeous look aloft. It went from a negatively tilted trough over the TN Valley to a broad, flat trough at 12z. How is that gorgeous? Great winter storm signal with a piece of energy digging into the SW US and then undercutting some blockiness to the north with the northern stream getting involved once the storm gets near the Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Because we went from a negatively tilted trough at 00z to a flat neutral trough this run. It's weak sauce until it's too far northeast. Look at 108 hours at H5, though. I think everyone in this subforum would take a swing with that depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 It's a lot colder because the storm is so far offshore, if you tracked it closer to the coast you would warm. Also, it's terrible looking at H5. I'm shocked it was able to pull out such a good looking system given the mess aloft. Terrible looking? Have you ever seen a shortwave evolve northeastward from the southwest US under some blockiness? If you think the H5 evolution is terrible looking, well, it's time to log off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 THE 12Z EURO IS south BECAUSE at 126 hrs the 12z euro STILL has the 50/ 50 Low in place over se canada... that in turn forces southern Low to stay More south great for dt LAND.. but I think this is wrong...I dont think the 50/50 low will stay there THAT long Have you looked at the differences at H5? The differences from 00z start at hour 96 regarding the amplification of the trough. The trough will be less potent with more confluence from the 50/50 low being further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Look at 108 hours at H5, though. I think everyone in this subforum would take a swing with that depiction. Yeah, that's all fine and good, but everything flattens out after that. I'll take my chances with a more amplified solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The Euro evolution at 12z is now not too far off from December 2009...except the ULL is too far south over Eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Notice how from 48 through 96 hours, the North Atlantic ridge links up with the Rex Block which doesn't allow the 50/50 low to leave that quickly. The Euro has been doing that for several runs in a row. The notion that we have to have some big -NAO in order to keep a 50/50 low around long enough for a snowy solution is just wrong, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The Euro evolution at 12z is now not too far off from December 2009...except the ULL is too far south over Eastern Canada. Agreed. It's a pretty good match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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