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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

Yesterday afternoon SHV took frozen precip out of my forecast, now I am a few likes from winter storm warning and under an advisory.

Yep, just as expected. An advisory at the least this morning....Really don't understand the forecasting during the afternoon hours at SHV...

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Yep, just as expected. An advisory at the least this morning....Really don't understand the forecasting during the afternoon hours at SHV...

It is baffling. For a few days it has been clear that we will see at least advisory level conditions and north of I-20 and even south of there warning criteria is likely.
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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

Well, looks like another ice day Thursday. The question really will be that freezing line and how quickly it advances. NWS seems pretty confident it will lag around 6, but if it does come early by a couple hours, it could be a bad situation with the evening commute.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Well, looks like another ice day Thursday. The question really will be that freezing line and how quickly it advances. NWS seems pretty confident it will lag around 6, but if it does come early by a couple hours, it could be a bad situation with the evening commute.

 

The latest run of the HRRR starts to mix in heavy sleet between 4:00 and 5:00 pm just as the freezing line moves into the area.  The thing about this system that will probably throw off a lot of people is that the impulse that could really deliver the winter weather hammer to DFW won't arrive until later on this evening.  Anything before then will just be bonus. 

 

ETA:  Temps are already running a degree or two cooler vs. HRRR

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

Some of the local TV mets are jumping on the 3-5" of snow across the area tonight.

 

noticed that even I love warm and no snow/ice period Evan Andrews said 2-3".. I just woke up (yay off day) and i was like WHOA what happened! winter storm warnings and 3" of snow again.... 

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted

The latest run of the HRRR starts to mix in heavy sleet between 4:00 and 5:00 pm just as the freezing line moves into the area. The thing about this system that will probably throw off a lot of people is that the impulse that could really deliver the winter weather hammer to DFW won't arrive until later on this evening. Anything before then will just be bonus.

ETA: Temps are already running a degree or two cooler vs. HRRR

this is what we should really look at today. The timing and position of freezing line!

Could bubba keep us update here plz? Lol

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Taken verbatim, according to the NAM, more than half of the precipitation is sleet...lots of it...and even then there's a good 2-3" snow at the end, especially for the NE counties.

0z

Screen Shot 2015-03-04 at 09.13.51.png

3z

Screen Shot 2015-03-04 at 09.14.01.png

6z

Screen Shot 2015-03-04 at 09.14.16.png

9z

Screen Shot 2015-03-04 at 09.14.27.png

I've been pretty confident that we would see accumulating snow out of this. Timing is everything but it doesn't look like we will waste much qpf as freezing rain. A nice sleet base topped with snow will make for some challenging travel tomorrow morning.

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

I've been pretty confident that we would see accumulating snow out of this. Timing is everything but it doesn't look like we will waste much qpf as freezing rain. A nice sleet base topped with snow will make for some challenging travel tomorrow morning.

Yes, there will probably be some ZR before 0z, but it looks like the precip will be light at the time...sleet and then snow will be the main ptypes there.

 

For MBY there's a big disparity between models. The NAM being the coldest, and the GFS the warmest (shocker)...also the GFS is driest, and the NAM along with several other models is wetter, though mostly light precip. The hires NAM depicts some sleet at the higher elevations of the city, and looking at the soundings, the main hindrance for the stratiform precip is the dry surface, which is also just above freezing (34-37F). If we can get some 'heavy drizzle' precip, it can cool the surface temps a bit and allow it to survive without sublimating. I'm not very optimistic, since that's the coldest of the models, and it's March, which probably sees wintry precip every 2-3 decades, if so. In any case, this will be an extraordinary cold wave for MBY.  

 

Now, let's see what's the high for today...there's a slight chance to get up to 90F :P

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

Well, edited comment here, but it may come in a bit earlier. I was looking and it looks to be crawling to me, but I found an animated temperature map that seems to show it moving fairly good even if it's not hauling. Maybe 4:30 is possible for Denton and far north Tarrant?

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Looks like Central Texas including Austin will see up to .5" of freezing rain. Northwest Texas between Lubbock and Wichita Falls could see up to 6" of snow. The I-30 corridor could see 3-5" of sleet and snow. The I-20 corridor could see light freezing rain and 1-3" of sleet and snow. Western parts of the state will see most precip between now and late this evening. the I-35 corridor from this evening through very early tomorrow morning. Eastern Texas mainly after midnight into tomorrow morning. All areas besides NW TX should start as rain with parts of NE TX seeing up to an inch before changing over.

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1032 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND METRO AUSTIN...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AN
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATION PLAINS...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DROP TEMPERATURES 20-25 DEGREES...WITH FURTHER COOLING TO NEAR
FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST GULF
AIR WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ABOVE THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE...WITH THE RESULT EXPECTED TO BE A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS IS A LONGER PERIOD BELOW
FREEZING...AND HIGHER FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IN THE
WARNING AREA. WE EXPECT THIS EVENT MAY HAVE THE LARGEST IMPACT OF
THE WINTER WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING...PRODUCING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND METRO AUSTIN. FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE TO 1/10 INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE
WARNING AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT FROM NEW BRAUNFELS TO SAN ANTONIO TO
BRACKETTVILLE.


LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN
1032 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING...ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA AFTER 6
  PM...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
  FREEZING AFTER NOON THURSDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CAUSING ICING OF 1/10 INCH
  AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. THIS WILL MAKE FOR ICY ROADS AND
  HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SIDEWALKS...DECKS...AND OTHER SURFACES MAY BE
  DIFFICULT TO WALK ON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS
WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL PROBLEMS AND MAY POSE A THREAT TO
LIFE AND PROPERTY.


BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...BRACKETTVILLE...
UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART
1032 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET..WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING...ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA AFTER 6 PM...
  FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
  FREEZING AFTER NOON THURSDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CAUSING ICING OF LESS THAN
  1/10 INCH. THIS WILL MAKE FOR PATCHY ICE ON ROADS AND HAZARDOUS
  DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SIDEWALKS...DECKS...AND OTHER SURFACES MAY BE
  SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

 

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