DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 MORE ON THE COMING PATTERN CHANGE ... glad to see WES is a board....i have been talking about the dec 22-26 change for over a week now so the TREND IS MY FRIEND One of the reasons why I am not particularly bullish about the event /threat for December 21 is that the overall pattern on a hemispheric scale ...is not very favorable. Yes the models DO show what appears to be cold HIGH in a pretty good set up ...at least for the beginning of the event. The problem is that the flow at 500 mb across Canada is Pacific and ZONAL ....and has no arctic connection. Thus the HIGH is NOT very cold and has to be the perfect ideal position when the coastal Low begins in order to keep some the precip snow. The only reason why this is potential threat to begin with is the development of the big ocean Low over southeastern Canada (the 50/50 LOW)The NAO is strongly positive which along with the Pacific pattern strongly interdicts the supply of cold air into the Northeast US. But beyond the December 21 event... If we use the overall hemispheric pattern as a starting point we can truly see some significant changes taking place across the hemisphere by DEC 25. Here is the 324 hrs EURO EPS MEAN.... It shows several important tihngs... many of which are self explanatory The 5 days CFS from from the website tropicaltidbits web site has been showing this for while.... and increasingly amplified +PNA and -EPO pattern . Now the euro ensembles are showing this as well. see image The one thing that should be noted is that we do not on this map yet see a -NAO and the PV is still very far to the north over Baffin island. here is the week 3 and 4 500 mb on anomaly maps from CPC. I have drawn in some key features for ease of comprehension. The cfs clearly indicates that the pattern amplification is going to really picked up speed In week 3 and week 4 . The -EPO goes absolutely ballistic in week4 and strongly resembles what we saw last January But again ...even though there IS a -AO we do not have -NAO.. Yet Here is why. Next week as the zonal flow across Canada begins to amplify it will take on the WIDE and BROAD shape. We can all see that. Because of this ...the PV is forced to over to Baffin Island in far Northeast Canada . This in turn means any RIDGE is forced over iceland or the uK or Norway ...and the NAO is either positive or neutral. BUT as the western Canada ridge amplifies ... it will get pulled WEST because of the --EPO development. This will cause western Canada ridge to shaprens up ....which in turn will allow he PV to shift SW into Hudson's bay And THAT that in turn will allow the NAO to go Negative in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 MORE ON THE COMING PATTERN CHANGE ... glad to see WES is a board.... i have been talking about the dec 22-26 change for over a week now so the TREND IS MY FRIEND One of the reasons why I am not particularly bullish about the event /threat for December 21 is that the overall pattern on a hemispheric scale ...is not very favorable. Yes the models DO show what appears to be cold HIGH in a pretty good set up ...at least for the beginning of the event. The problem is that the flow at 500 mb across Canada is Pacific and ZONAL ....and has no arctic connection. Thus the HIGH is NOT very cold and has to be the perfect ideal position when the coastal Low begins in order to keep some the precip snow. The only reason why this is potential threat to begin with is the development of the big ocean Low over southeastern Canada (the 50/50 LOW) The NAO is strongly positive which along with the Pacific pattern strongly interdicts the supply of cold air into the Northeast US. But beyond the December 21 event... If we use the overall hemispheric pattern as a starting point we can truly see some significant changes taking place across the hemisphere by DEC 25. Here is the 324 hrs EURO EPS MEAN.... It shows several important tihngs... many of which are self explanatory ECMWF-EPS_500mbHgtanom_nhem_f324.png The 5 days CFS from from the website tropicaltidbits web site has been showing this for while.... and increasingly amplified +PNA and -EPO pattern . Now the euro ensembles are showing this as well. see image The one thing that should be noted is that we do not on this map yet see a -NAO and the PV is still very far to the north over Baffin island. here is the week 3 and 4 500 mb on anomaly maps from CPC. I have drawn in some key features for ease of comprehension. The cfs clearly indicates that the pattern amplification is going to really picked up speed In week 3 and week 4 . The -EPO goes absolutely ballistic in week4 and strongly resembles what we saw last January CFS500WEEK34.jpg But again ...even though there IS a -AO we do not have -NAO.. Yet Here is why. Next week as the zonal flow across Canada begins to amplify it will take on the WIDE and BROAD shape. We can all see that. Because of this ...the PV is forced to over to Baffin Island in far Northeast Canada . This in turn means any RIDGE is forced over iceland or the uK or Norway ...and the NAO is either positive or neutral. BUT as the western Canada ridge amplifies ... it will get pulled WEST because of the --EPO development. This will cause western Canada ridge to shaprens up ....which in turn will allow he PV to shift SW into Hudson's bay And THAT that in turn will allow the NAO to go Negative in January Great write up Dave!..what a refreshing post for this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Thanks for the post DT. Always look forward to your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Great write up Dave!..what a refreshing post for this board Agree this way a very refreshing post regarding the pattern change later this month and into january. Still dont like how he ripped JB the way he did in november being a professional forecaster he is. I digress though since that has nothing pertaining to this. The El Nino west based that we are seeing this winter proves it is going according to plan with what DT wrote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I don't care which DT this is. When you get a cleanup hitter here you deal with whatever comes. The guy is money and when he's not he rips himself as much as he rips others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Thanks for sharing DT, the pattern sure looks promising and eerily similiar to last year where if flipped Right near Christmas. If that Cfs model is right we are gonna have one heck of a forum going for the New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I don't care which DT this is. When you get a cleanup hitter here you deal with whatever comes. The guy is money and when he's not he rips himself as much as he rips others. People think he's anti snow, which is hardly the case. He gets just as excited when things look promising....that's a good forecaster somebody who doesn't hype up anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I think DT is the best LR forecaster in the biz..just look at his December forecast,it shows the storm tracks for the beginning and the end of the month..very accurate..his winter forecasts the last 5 years are very good,and when he's wrong he admits it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Boxing Day Blizzard Part Deux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I wonder if everyone would be as kind about DT had he been forecasting a mild, less snowy pattern in the LR. It's a good discussion but again we're talking weeks 3-4 which are not exactly accurate to forecast. A few weeks ago we were supposed to torch right now but it's been slightly below normal right? And let's not forget the forecasts for November. Bottom line is beyond a certain time frame it's difficult to forecast exactly what's going to happen and we've already had proof of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I wonder if everyone would be as kind about DT had he been forecasting a mild, less snowy pattern in the LR. It's a good discussion but again we're talking weeks 3-4 which are not exactly accurate to forecast. A few weeks ago we were supposed to torch right now but it's been slightly below normal right? And let's not forget the forecasts for November. Bottom line is beyond a certain time frame it's difficult to forecast exactly what's going to happen and we've already had proof of that. Many didn't buy the torch. Buy you did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 lets first get 1 with a few inches under our belts - shouldn't be even mentioning KU Many of us have already had some small nickle and dime events. Others have already received a warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I'm really liking the period from roughly the 20th to the end of the year, but it's going to take a thread the needle event with a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 i don't think we get any real snow until january. the ecmwf ens mean keeps us warm through 360 hrs and dumps the cold into the west instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 i don't think we get any real snow until january. the ecmwf ens mean keeps us warm through 360 hrs and dumps the cold into the west instead The upcoming period looks stormy and at this point that's about all we can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 We'll see what happens on the 20-21 storm/set-up. In many ways it is a nice set-up with broad cool high pressure to north in a more or less good spot and as storm sneaking underneath. But yes, it is going to be a job for it to hold cold enough for many...much like the last couple storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014121200/ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 i don't think we get any real snow until january. the ecmwf ens mean keeps us warm through 360 hrs and dumps the cold into the west instead 360 hours?Thats further than weenie land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The upcoming period looks stormy and at this point that's about all we can ask for. So far everything feels very 97/98 like with the large amount of storminess and lack of cold air. Luckily we don't have a massive Nino in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 360 hours?Thats further than weenie land. do you know what "through" means? JFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 GEFS develops a negative AO and EPO in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014121200/ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png whatwehaveherecoolhandlukede2.jpg Got those 850's under there at 240 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 So far everything feels very 97/98 like with the large amount of storminess and lack of cold air. Luckily we don't have a massive Nino in play. December very similar to 77-78 too..first snow that winter didn't happen till new years day..and it was a below average winter until Jan 20th..just put things in perspective Dec 77 had 0.4 inches of snow and about average temps..it was a cold November and a weak el nino...So that's why bringing out 97-98 in nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 12z ECMWF - 150hrs. The ULL over Maine that eventually becomes the 50/50 low is more sprawling this run and it's helping to build better heights over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Really big changes on the Euro for the end of next week. Nasty ice storm over portions of NW Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 this is incorrect by a wide margin i don't think we get any real snow until january. the ecmwf ens mean keeps us warm through 360 hrs and dumps the cold into the west instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Big closed 500mb low right over OKC. Surface low over LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 dont bother me none.Never has never will its science it not personal when its s time to get optimistic its time to get optimistic when its not .. its not. selling people bull**** in JULY does NOT help the science ... I wonder if everyone would be as kind about DT had he been forecasting a mild, less snowy pattern in the LR. It's a good discussion but again we're talking weeks 3-4 which are not exactly accurate to forecast.A few weeks ago we were supposed to torch right now but it's been slightly below normal right? And let's not forget the forecasts for November. Bottom line is beyond a certain time frame it's difficult to forecast exactly what's going to happen and we've already had proof of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 PAST DEC 21 THREAT .. this one I have been talking about since dec 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 12Z ERO has the DEC 21 low going up the appalachians because the 50/50 Low over se canada leaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.