Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

[WxBlue]

Looks like there could be some icing issues over NC though.  2m temps are cold enough.  I will say this, we might have to sacrifice this one, to make room for the other system making its way onshore over CA.  That could be the Christmas, or right around there, storm that affects us.  I think its nice and cold, at least at 2m behind this storm.  

 

That's what I was wondering. We could use this storm to become our 50/50 low down the road for a storm moving across STJ in Southwest USA and hopefully it'll be there for us by Christmas-time.

[NCSNOW]

Thanks for the updates and pbp. Just logged on here after a bust day. Keep em coming. Maybe the euro is falling back to known habit of holding energy back sw to long. Sure will get to see a few more different solutions before it gets in its wheel house by Sunday or monday. Anyway nice to have something to look at while we wait for the flip to get here, which is coming right after this event exits stage left.

[Hvward]

12z euro still has some frozen precip across WNC. Surface temps are still warm but it looks better then the 00z run for anyone living in the NC mountains.

[BullCityWx]

Cold rain is best rain.

 

You've got to stop listening to Cold Rain.

[deltadog03]

Now, the pattern is actually ripe for us to have a nice winter storm in the SE.  The first one goes by, next weekend, and lays down some snowcover and plenty of cold over the county.  I wouldnt' give up on the weekend storm just yet either, btw.  There looks like it could be a nice icing threat over a lot of NC. The euro has another big storm rolling east over baja by 240.  IF** that is correct, and IF** that continues to move east at a nice clip...we could have fun and games close to Christmas.  GFS has that idea, but too warm.  EURO looks colder, and has a 50/50 low.  

[mackerel_sky]

I guess it could take two storms to set us up for the third!? We have a cutter, then an apps runner , then we finally have one good storm for the SE, as the cold slowly takes over the east. But any snowcover in the plains and or or Midwest , will only help us in the long run to get the cold air down here without too much modification .

[burgertime]

Now, the pattern is actually ripe for us to have a nice winter storm in the SE.  The first one goes by, next weekend, and lays down some snowcover and plenty of cold over the county.  I wouldnt' give up on the weekend storm just yet either, btw.  There looks like it could be a nice icing threat over a lot of NC. The euro has another big storm rolling east over baja by 240.  IF** that is correct, and IF** that continues to move east at a nice clip...we could have fun and games close to Christmas.  GFS has that idea, but too warm.  EURO looks colder, and has a 50/50 low.  

 

It sucks we won't really know until mid week next week. I suspect as WOW said that the Euro is playing to it's bias. You see at 5h how that western system is serving as a kicker to get it moving but there is so much energy coming out of the PAC that you would think there would be an impulse before that to gain steam and get moving. 

[deltadog03]

I agree, that the low could be to slow on the EURO, my guess, with yall's is yes as well.  However, I also think that we could be more cutter/apps runner with some CAD in the fav areas, and some SVR outside that with this one next weekend.  Depends on the speed of that system.  

[Jon]

I'm not saying I'm just saying the 12z Chinese model (CMA) has a 997mb low off coast of NC/SC after it taps the gulf at 192hrs and explodes up the east coast (offshore) before it hits new brunswick at 958mb. 50/50 low in tact. I don't know the skill for this model it's just on WxBell.

[superjames1992]

I'm not saying I'm just saying the 12z Chinese model (CMA) has a 997mb low off coast of NC/SC after it taps the gulf at 192hrs and explodes up the east coast (offshore) before it hits new brunswick at 958mb. 50/50 low in tact. I don't know the skill for this model it's just on WxBell.

I didn't even know there was a Chinese model. Is it better than the Korean?

EDIT: I just saw that on WeatherBell. I didn't know WB had that. Beautiful track. My new weenie model of choice.

[Brick Tamland]

I didn't even know there was a Chinese model. Is it better than the Korean?

 

Only bad thing about the Chinese model is once you look at it you want to look at it again an hour later.

[packbacker]

EPS improved from 0z run, has SLP over HAT at 210.

[tnweathernut]

EPS improved from 0z run, has SLP over HAT at 210.

Miller Bish or more defined Miller A?

[superjames1992]

Miller Bish or more defined Miller A?

 

Looks possibly Miller Bish to me based on hr 204, though it may actually be disagreement between the members on whether to shove the LP up through the Ohio Valley vs. keeping it more Miller A-ish.  I would say it looks better than the 00z EPS mean.

 

BTW, at the end of its run the 12z JMA has a LP over central Mississippi.

[superjames1992]

Wow, the 12z Canadian looks totally different.

 

Also, the Euro is the coldest of cold rains here.  The verbatim temperature on the Euro is 32 for a good portion of the storm here.

[Hvward]

32/50 of the 12z euro ensemble members have accumulation for the Asheville Airport, 19 with 3"+.  39/50 have accumulation for Boone with 23 of 3"+ & 31/50 for Franklin, NC.

 

other cities:

 

Charlotte: 12/50

 

Raleigh/Durham: 7/50

 

Greensboro: 20/50

 

Winston-Salem: 20/50

 

Hickory: 25/50

 

Greenville, NC: 4/50

 

Greenville, SC: 18/50

 

Columbia, SC: 2/50

 

KATL: 2/50

 

Marietta: 6/50

 

Waycross: 0/50

 

Cartersville: 4/50

 

Augusta: 2/50

 

Athens: 4/50

 

Blairsville: 18/50

 

Dalton: 9/50

[WSNC]

Nice cad showing up on 18z upgraded gfs. Looks to put down some snow and ice in western NC. Definitely a different look than regular gfs and more in line with euro.

[deltadog03]

Just updated the video for looking ahead/trends.  Im really sorry its a long one. LOL  I wanted to make sure all the info in there.  I really love the pattern we are heading too.  As always, let me know what y'all think, good or bad.  IF you want to like my page, that would be amazing!  Maybe share the video, page, and invite some your friends to do the same.  TY everyone!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Wxmanchris/690966551001476?ref=hl

[Eastatlwx]

Just updated the video for looking ahead/trends.  Im really sorry its a long one. LOL  I wanted to make sure all the info in there.  I really love the pattern we are heading too.  As always, let me know what y'all think, good or bad.  IF you want to like my page, that would be amazing!  Maybe share the video, page, and invite some your friends to do the same.  TY everyone!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Wxmanchris/690966551001476?ref=hl

Good video!

[deltadog03]

Good video!

Thank you!  I appreciate it.  Sorry it was long..LOL

[burgertime]

00z is a weak strung out low cutting on the 20th. Doesn't even look like the last few runs with a big low. 

[DixieBlizzard]

Thanks Chris. I have your page "liked" now on FB.

[burgertime]

GFS PARA is close for the 20th storm in the SE...the soap opera continues. 

[WxBlue]

GFS PARA is close for the 20th storm in the SE...the soap opera continues. 

 

540 line is down to I-40 in NC by evening of 21st with low pressure too far off coast of OBX. Very close to something wintry, but not quite there.

[Jonathan]

I just don't feel confident about this Dec 21 threat. The overall cold air just isn't there to be tapped. The track isn't quite there. (Cutter/offshore/cutter/offshore)

Hopefully it sets up as our 50/50 low for DT's Christmas storm.

[burgertime]

I just don't feel confident about this Dec 21 threat. The overall cold air just isn't there to be tapped. The track isn't quite there. (Cutter/offshore/cutter/offshore)

Hopefully it sets up as our 50/50 low for DT's Christmas storm.

Looks like it's doing exactly that on the Canadian.

[WxBlue]

I just don't feel confident about this Dec 21 threat. The overall cold air just isn't there to be tapped. The track isn't quite there. (Cutter/offshore/cutter/offshore)

Hopefully it sets up as our 50/50 low for DT's Christmas storm.

 

There were quite a good amount of Ohio Valley cutters on both GFS models, that's for sure!

 

EDIT: Canadian appears to be too warm.

[deltadog03]

Well, the gFS looked like hell.  hahah strung out like its on meth...NEXT!!!!

[superjames1992]

Gotta love how the regular GFS versus the parallel GFS look 100% different.

 

The GFS parallel actually looks fairly similar to the Canadian.  The Canadian seems to be more of a Miller A/B hybrid, though.

 

Dare I say the models have taken a shift towards today's 12z run of the Chinese model, though (at least with the track)?   

[TeleConnectSnow]

Gotta love how the regular GFS versus the parallel GFS look 100% different.

 

The GFS parallel actually looks fairly similar to the Canadian.  The Canadian seems to be more of a Miller A/B hybrid, though.

the GFS P has been absolutely horrid since its been apart of the models. Even though both GFS are bad, I would take the regular one since the GFS never even had the thanksgiving storm until like a day out.