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Southern Ontario Winter '14-'15 Discussion


harrisale

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Overnight euro has 0.46" of qpf at YYZ as all snow. GFS in the 0.3-0.4" range while the nam looks close to the euro though the gradient across the city is really impressive(5" in Etobicoke with near 10" in Oshawa via instantwxmaps).

Hoping you're right! Great job by the way in keeping us Ontario posters up to date! :)

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First (and quite possibly final) call: 1" to perhaps 2". Locally.

 

Just looked at the 12z Euro and it shows about 3-4" (7-10cm) in the GTA with sfc temps below -1.0C and 850mb temperatures around -7 to -8C during the heaviest rates. However, compared to the 0z Euro its about 0.10 qpf drier. 

 

I wouldn't bet more than an inch or two atm as well. Unless models drastically change tonight, its a good call. 

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Just looked at the 12z Euro and it shows about 3-4" (7-10cm) in the GTA with sfc temps below -1.0C and 850mb temperatures around -7 to -8C during the heaviest rates. However, compared to the 0z Euro its about 0.10 qpf drier. 

 

I wouldn't bet more than an inch or two atm as well. Unless models drastically change tonight, its a good call. 

I remember there was a coastal storm around March 2001 where Toronto was forecast to get flurries but because of a last minute shift in the track, we got 6-8".

 

Worst bust I can remember is December 30, 1997. Foot of snow forecast for Toronto, plows at the ready, and we ended up with flurries.

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I remember there was a coastal storm around March 2001 where Toronto was forecast to get flurries but because of a last minute shift in the track, we got 6-8".

 

Worst bust I can remember is December 30, 1997. Foot of snow forecast for Toronto, plows at the ready, and we ended up with flurries.

 

Wonder what happened with that one. Luckily, I don't remember it.

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I remember there was a coastal storm around March 2001 where Toronto was forecast to get flurries but because of a last minute shift in the track, we got 6-8".

 

That was 13 years ago, models have improved significantly.... HIGHLY doubt we're going to see some kind of shift like that at this range.

Thinking DAB for my backyard. SSC likely outta the game on this one. Obviously, those farther east will fare better.

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I'm sure everyone remembers the February 2011 storm. What a fail that was LOL.  

 

And we can't forget about all the media hype for that storm too.  :lmao:

 

Well, expecting a foot and getting flurries is way worse than expecting 6-10" and getting 5".

 

The non-event in February of 2012 is one of the more recent pure busts I can remember.

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Did anybody see the 12z NAM? It shows a fair bit of snow for the GTA, possibly exceeding 4". It's the NAM, though, so I'm not completely sold on it.

 

I'm starting to wonder if the GTA is going to be caught off guard again, leading to traffic mayhem on Thursday morning. Environment Canada has yet to issue a special weather statement for the GTA and hasn't even issued a snowfall warning for Kingston and Ottawa.

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Did anybody see the 12z NAM? It shows a fair bit of snow for the GTA, possibly exceeding 4". It's the NAM, though, so I'm not completely sold on it.

I'm starting to wonder if the GTA is going to be caught off guard again, leading to traffic mayhem on Thursday morning. Environment Canada has yet to issue a special weather statement for the GTA and hasn't even issued a snowfall warning for Kingston and Ottawa.

I wouldn't take one NAM run verbatim. I doubt we will see many 4" reports in the GTA, with the possible exception of the eastern extremes of the city. SREF plumes have been consistent around 2-2.5" inches and I think that's reasonable.

WPC is being realistic with the situation. Probability of exceeding 4":

prb_48hsnow_ge04_2014120912f048.gif

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I wouldn't take one NAM run verbatim. I doubt we will see many 4" reports in the GTA, with the possible exception of the eastern extremes of the city. SREF plumes have been consistent around 2-2.5" inches and I think that's reasonable.

WPC is being realistic with the situation. Probability of exceeding 4":

prb_48hsnow_ge04_2014120912f048.gif

I completely agree. The NAM almost always overhypes amounts. I do think, though, that Environment Canada should at least issue a special weather statement for Toronto given that even 2" could cause problems on the roads if the salters aren't given the heads up.

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It's too early for EC to issue a SWS in mid December for up to 10cm. Tomorrow would be the appropriate time to issue it. The earlier you issue a SWS, the more serious it seems. In mid December this is nothing to overhype.

I do think there is some "hang time" potential with this set up though. Flurries could linger longer than modelled.

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I'm going to bump my upper range to 3" (7-8cm). Currently think it's going to unfold as a 2-3/maybe 4 hr burst of snow with the CCB late Wednesday. But we're going to be slotted pretty quickly and that'll preclude amounts from reach 10cm+ imo.

 

Thermals look surprising cold. I'm not seeing much sfc or elevated warmth. Can't complain.

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Agreed. Although my call is for 3-5", I think totals closer to 3" (or possibly 4") will be more likely than 5".

 

Last I checked the Kuchera map was calling for a 14:1 ratio off the NAM. Your range looks ok even with 0.30" QPF if those ratios verify. I'm really liking an aggressive slot with this thing so that's why I'm going conservative.

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I'm going to bump my upper range to 3" (7-8cm). Currently think it's going to unfold as a 2-3/maybe 4 hr burst of snow with the CCB late Wednesday. But we're going to be slotted pretty quickly and that'll preclude amounts from reach 10cm+ imo.

 

Thermals look surprising cold. I'm not seeing much sfc or elevated warmth. Can't complain.

 

I'm with you on that call, with 5" for Snowstorms and blizzardof96

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I'm with you on that call, with 5" for Snowstorms and blizzardof96

 

Initially, I was thinking east of the city would be the sweet spot. Now though I think some of the higher amounts (aside from the Snowstorms slant-stick sweetspot :lol:) might end up being over the high ground NW of the city, where the deformation zone pivot point is likely to set up. Guelph, Caledon, etc.

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NAM QPF over 0.50" is nonsense. Don't drink the kool-aid.

RGEM drinking the kool-aid as well. Little 0.5-0.6" contour north of the 401/407. You will hate me for saying this but i'm actually liking the 3-5" range. The euro has been rock solid with 3"+ amounts and its only more reassuring to have some of the high res models onboard(besides the NAM of course).

 

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