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Let's Start the Winter Off with a Bang


DaculaWeather

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Yes they will be   ;)       Hunker down se peeps as we welcome a touch of winter    :hug:

 

 

Edit: A perfect Saturday.......football, fire, food(drink) and discussing a winter system =   :wub:

i will second this lol - just finished dinner and cleaning up and having a glass of wine and saw the updated forecast for mby - winter wx advisory haha  i will believe it when i see it in oct (or november 1).  nws has maybe an inch or so here.  wild halloween BOO.  was just thinking whether it was cold enough to warrant cranking up the fireplace :)

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The 00z NAM is much wetter up in the northwestern Piedmont.  Interesting.  0.50-0.75" from hr 6-12.

 

The Hi-Res is wet, too.

wow this will be painful to watch for me and northeast ga. Sorry to say that nam/hrrr have been stuck on this solution for a while. The composite reflectivity on the hrrr just makes me want to cry lol. Literally get missed by about the width of one county or two tops.

 

Not saying those snow totals are going to be accurate but I do believe there will be snow in the air, maybe even more than just a flake or two,  along the savannah river valley over into the upstate.

 

totp_t6sfc_f15.png

 

cref_t6sfc_f12.png

 

 

acsnw_sfc_f15.png

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wow this will be painful to watch for me and northeast ga. Sorry to say that nam/hrrr have been stuck on this solution for a while. The composite reflectivity on the hrrr just makes me want to cry lol. Literally get missed by about the width of one county or two tops.

 

Not saying those snow totals are going to be accurate but I do believe there will be snow in the air, maybe even more than just a flake or two,  along the savannah river valley over into the upstate.

 

That's the million dollar question....where will it set up  ;)   I honestly think it will be further north than what they are showing, but tracking it is half the fun  :D  

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That's the million dollar question....where will it set up   ;)   I honestly think it will be further north than what they are showing, but tracking it is half the fun   :D

I really believe south carolina will be the big winners here outside the mountains. The last 24 hour of model runs really warmed up the low to mid levels over north carolina (even making it into the far northern/northeastern upstate)with waa from the east. So somewhere between the savannah river  to gsp to columbia/your neck of the woods will be the winners imho. Although more actual precip might fall northeast of this area, This area has the benefit of the coldest air.

 

Unfortunately for me all the guidance shows it hitting a brick wall at the savannah river. So unless there is a surprise of some sort, you and the rest of the lucky south carolina dogs will get all the treats :axe:

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wow this will be painful to watch for me and northeast ga. Sorry to say that nam/hrrr have been stuck on this solution for a while. The composite reflectivity on the hrrr just makes me want to cry lol. Literally get missed by about the width of one county or two tops.

 

Not saying those snow totals are going to be accurate but I do believe there will be snow in the air, maybe even more than just a flake or two,  along the savannah river valley over into the upstate.

 

 

 yep, this area has been basically dry for most of the model runs, just a little bit here and there.  the winners are just to our left and right :( it can be painful to watch to say the least. if it does snow really close by maybe time for a quick drive to see early nov snow lol.  although even a few flurries here would be nice imby sigh  at least it is active out tonight - winds are howling and temps already in the upper 30s

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I really believe south carolina will be the big winners here outside the mountains. The last 24 hour of model runs really warmed up the low to mid levels over north carolina (even making it into the far northern/northeastern upstate)with waa from the east. So somewhere between the savannah river  to gsp to columbia/your neck of the woods will be the winners imho. Although more actual precip might fall northeast of this area, This area has the benefit of the coldest air.

 

Unfortunately for me all the guidance shows it hitting a brick wall at the savannah river. So unless there is a surprise of some sort, you and the rest of the lucky south carolina dogs will get all the treats :axe:

I really hope you're right about SC.  :snowing:

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I really believe south carolina will be the big winners here outside the mountains. The last 24 hour of model runs really warmed up the low to mid levels over north carolina (even making it into the far northern/northeastern upstate)with waa from the east. So somewhere between the savannah river  to gsp to columbia/your neck of the woods will be the winners imho. Although more actual precip might fall northeast of this area, This area has the benefit of the coldest air.

 

Unfortunately for me all the guidance shows it hitting a brick wall at the savannah river. So unless there is a surprise of some sort, you and the rest of the lucky south carolina dogs will get all the treats :axe:

:lol:   Clinton, Union, Chester, Rock Hill, Lancaster, Cheraw should be the winners, but I've been wrong before.....a lot    :P  

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One thing I noticed with this though as usual with other situations most of the times the models want to drop the ULL too far south. Seems like the last 18-24 all the models have been trending further and further south. Honestly dont know why the models have been trending toward SAV.

 

But just looking at WV Im not quiete sure if that will happen. Somewhere north of Columbia SC. The flow is backing a fair amount the last few frames to the NW. This may take a turn shortly over the next few hours.

wow this will be painful to watch for me and northeast ga. Sorry to say that nam/hrrr have been stuck on this solution for a while. The composite reflectivity on the hrrr just makes me want to cry lol. Literally get missed by about the width of one county or two tops.

 

Not saying those snow totals are going to be accurate but I do believe there will be snow in the air, maybe even more than just a flake or two,  along the savannah river valley over into the upstate.

 

 

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How much?

Not really looking into "accumulation" since it's going to be too warm, but under the heaviest returns on simulated radar.

 

The HRR is going to keep changing.  Trying to figure out exactly what the ULL is going to do is pretty much impossible until it's happening imo.

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Not really looking into "accumulation" since it's going to be too warm, but under the heaviest returns on simulated radar.

 

The HRR is going to keep changing.  Trying to figure out exactly what the ULL is going to do is pretty much impossible until it's happening imo.

Thank you. Its just fun watching this thing, snow or no snow. Like seeing the rain anyways. 

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