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November 2014


Rtd208

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If the ridge axis ends up in the perfect position the landfalling Pacific TC could theoretically ride the edge from Mexico right into the northeast, or the energy and moisture could get infused with a larger system. The GFS and Euro sure have been printing out some interesting scenarios in the day 10 time frame.

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12z GFS and 12z Euro lost the warmth for November. 12z Euro is really different than the 0z run lol.

But most of the time that's how it is and then new 0z runs could flip right back to warm. I enjoy seeing real analysis versus run to run models because that doesn't tell me anything.

Why is November going to be warm/cold? What factors drive the pattern heading forward and what kind of pattern is it?

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Spoke about this a few days ago, but most medium range models agree that any semblance of high latitude ridging will break down at least temporarily in the beginning of November. Makes sense given the general pattern progression. The Euro and GFS both noticeably have negative H5 height anomalies over Greenland all the way through the Davis St into North Central Canada. Should preclude a warmup over the Eastern 1/3 of the US

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f240.gif

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What a furnace October turned out to be and it was a lot warmer than I expected. November looks like a warm month as well but I'm hoping we turn the corner in the second half.

At some point you would think everything that's going on dictating the pattern would start to give us cooler weather. The winter correlation does increase deeper into November. In the meantime just enjoy this very mild,comfortable autumn.

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What a furnace October turned out to be and it was a lot warmer than I expected. November looks like a warm month as well but I'm hoping we turn the corner in the second half.

At some point you would think everything that's going on dictating the pattern would start to give us cooler weather. The winter correlation does increase deeper into November. In the meantime just enjoy this very mild,comfortable autumn.

You can start to see on the long range EURO/GFS that the models are starting to develop that ridge in the west up into western canada and the trough in the east. Its getting delayed little by little but the signal is they're for the pattern for the cold anomolies to start taking shape through the central/eastern parts of the country by mid to late next month possibly.
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You can start to see on the long range EURO/GFS that the models are starting to develop that ridge in the west up into western canada and the trough in the east. Its getting delayed little by little but the signal is they're for the pattern for the cold anomolies to start taking shape through the central/eastern parts of the country by mid to late next month possibly.

Well from all the forecasts I've read it could take until December for things to change. I've never seen such a strong consensus on a cold snowy winter for us but every piece of data available strongly points to it.

But could it be like last years hurricane season where one ingredient threw the entire forecast off, I really hope not.

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Well from all the forecasts I've read it could take until December for things to change. I've never seen such a strong consensus on a cold snowy winter for us but every piece of data available strongly points to it.

But could it be like last years hurricane season where one ingredient threw the entire forecast off, I really hope not.

We still can get that fly in the ointment so to speak but from right and up until december it looks fairly promising for cold and snowy again

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What a furnace October turned out to be and it was a lot warmer than I expected. November looks like a warm month as well but I'm hoping we turn the corner in the second half.

At some point you would think everything that's going on dictating the pattern would start to give us cooler weather. The winter correlation does increase deeper into November. In the meantime just enjoy this very mild,comfortable autumn.

Am I wrong in thinking October for this area was quite average temperature wise? I didn't think it was overly warm.

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Over the past day or so I've become increasingly interested in the period focused around November 6 for another possible coastal system.

 

Once the current troughing regime pushes east this weekend we should briefly be influinced by the ridge axis that is sliding eastward behind it. But then things looks somewhat interesting as the energy that is currently pushing into the southwest gets hung up over the four corners region. By Wednesday, the models are in agreement that a strong shortwave will be dropping through the upper plains. Combine that with a flip to a +PNA and higher heights over Greenland, thanks in part to our noreaster from this weekend moving into the Canadian Maritimes and you get a marginal setup for some phasing to occur while the southern stream wave is near Texas.

 

Now admittedly none of the 12z operational models are showing much of anything today, but a few of 00z GEFS members had some interesting scenarios to say the least. It seems as if the 12z GEFS have trended more towards cutting off the energy in the southwest while the northern stream wave passes by harmlessly.

 

It could end up as nothing, but it at least bears some watching.

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Over the past day or so I've become increasingly interested in the period focused around November 6 for another possible coastal system.

Once the current troughing regime pushes east this weekend we should briefly be influinced by the ridge axis that is sliding eastward behind it. But then things looks somewhat interesting as the energy that is currently pushing into the southwest gets hung up over the four corners region. By Wednesday, the models are in agreement that a strong shortwave will be dropping through the upper plains. Combine that with a flip to a +PNA and higher heights over Greenland, thanks in part to our noreaster from this weekend moving into the Canadian Maritimes and you get a marginal setup for some phasing to occur while the southern stream wave is near Texas.

Now admittedly none of the 12z operational models are showing much of anything today, but a few of 00z GEFS members had some interesting scenarios to say the least. It seems as if the 12z GEFS have trended more towards cutting off the energy in the southwest while the northern stream wave passes by harmlessly.

It could end up as nothing, but it at least bears some watching.

Agreed, in between transient ridging this month atleast some storm threats will have to be monitored whether it be in the form of liquid or frozen precip.
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Which only reinforces my thoughts on this month being a furnace. When normal feels cool then things have been warm. The second half in particular has been very mild and averages are gonna be slipping into the 50s if not already.

 

The last 15 days have been pretty damn warm with several record highs falling.

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This is more then just a "little above" average:

 

October 14th: +13

October 15th: +16

October 16th: +9

October 17th: +9

October 18th: +7

October 21st: +6

October 24th: +3

October 25th: +5

October 26th: +4

October 27th: +2

October 28th: +10

October 29th: +9

 

Month is currently +3.0

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October 2014 will turn out to be the warmest temperature departure at Central Park

since October 2013 as the +EPO finally warmed things up.

 

 

10-13...+3.3

11-13....-2.5

12-13...+1.0

1-14......-4.0

2-14......-3.7

3-14......-4.8

4-14......-0.7

5-14.....+1.6

6-14.....+1.0

7-14......-0.4

8-14......-0.7

9-14.....+1.7

10-14..+3.0..so far.

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October 2014 will turn out to be the warmest temperature departure at Central Park

since October 2013 as the +EPO finally warmed things up.

10-13...+3.3

11-13....-2.5

12-13...+1.0

1-14......-4.0

2-14......-3.7

3-14......-4.8

4-14......-0.7

5-14.....+1.6

6-14.....+1.0

7-14......-0.4

8-14......-0.7

9-14.....+1.7

10-14..+3.0..so far.

I love how everyone was saying what a cool and refreshing summer we had this year and yet the JJA average came in at -0.1 degrees, and that's when compared to the warmest 30 year climate block on record.

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I love how everyone was saying what a cool and refreshing summer we had this year and yet the JJA average came in at -0.1 degrees, and that's when compared to the warmest 30 year climate block on record.

It's all relative. The summers prior to this year have been so well above normal that even normal felt cool and pleasant, but yea it's still quite pitiful.

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I love how everyone was saying what a cool and refreshing summer we had this year and yet the JJA average came in at -0.1 degrees, and that's when compared to the warmest 30 year climate block on record.

 

It was the lack of 90 degree heat that made this summer so cool compared to recent years. Check out how much

cooler the maxes were compared to the warmer mins from the Plains to the East.

 

 

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