WxJordan Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Looks like the mountains up to DC really cash in, but I love the looks of that for my backyard. Yes, compared to WeatherBell my forecast is similar. WeatherBell shows greater snowfall than what I am predicting in the east, which is definitely possible. For this to happen, in my opinion, December is going to have to be cooler than what we are expecting right now. Regardless, unless something changes over the next month, winter is looking to be cool with multiple winter weather chances through the southeast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Quick question.... If Dec is cool, does that increase the chance for increased snowfall??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Quick question.... If Dec is cool, does that increase the chance for increased snowfall??? Yes/No. If it's colder, the odds of snow will logically go up. On the other hand, snowfall here is so dependent upon timing that many things can screw you out of snow, even in a cold regime. Also, a cold December doesn't, by itself, mean Jan/Feb/March will be cold and thus yield more snow. Standard Nino climo suggest that December is warmer than Jan/Feb. So if you get a cold December (assuming the rest of the season follows standard climo), consider that a bonus. The bottom line is, pull for a cold regime. Then, the eye of the needle will become just a little larger in which to thread a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 What about Asheville Jordan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hey, fritschy, welcome back to the winter discussion. I think you'll find Jordan's forecast favorable to Asheville, but I'll let him speak for himself. How about deleting three pages worth of content before posting your reply next time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hey, fritschy, welcome back to the winter discussion. I think you'll find Jordan's forecast favorable to Asheville, but I'll let him speak for himself. How about deleting three pages worth of content before posting your reply next time? fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Great read and very well thought out. I hope it verifys. I will miss our little micro climate in Wake Forest/Youngsville this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Great read and very well thought out. I hope it verifys. I will miss our little micro climate in Wake Forest/Youngsville this year. It really seems there's been a micro climate in our area. The horrible 2012-2013 year for the SE was not so horrible for us: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130117.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.freezing.20130127.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20130216/accum.20130216.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130222.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Great read and very well thought out. I hope it verifys. I will miss our little micro climate in Wake Forest/Youngsville this year. It really seems there's been a micro climate in our area. The horrible 2012-2013 year for the SE was not so horrible for us: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130117.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.freezing.20130127.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20130216/accum.20130216.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130222.gif Yes, that is one reason I was looking forward to moving to Wake Forest. It always seemed that was the hot spot when it came to snow in the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It really seems there's been a micro climate in our area. The horrible 2012-2013 year for the SE was not so horrible for us: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130117.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.freezing.20130127.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20130216/accum.20130216.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130222.gif If you look back over past winter event data this theory seems to be valid. Looking at my new location between the merge of the Haw and the Deep rivers and 1 mile from the Jordan lake dam something similar seems to take place. The 16/17 2013 Feb event shows this. My place is at the base of the lower side of the Chataham county pan handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 That just means you have a big mouth....err..keyboard? But yeah, Great write up. Me thinks I'll pin it for good luck too..us ne ga/upstate/midlands need all the help we can get. thats for sure - lol. if its not a degree off on the dewpoint to hit freezing its that nasty "warm bubble" against the mountains lol i vote with the others on a well done forecast. hopefully the last couple of winters will be a trend in a better direction than previously. side note - the leaves this year are pretty horrendous. just got back and was going through several north and ne ga counties. the maples are pretty, but most others are bland to blah. little color and many leaves have already fallen from a lot of the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 thats for sure - lol. if its not a degree off on the dewpoint to hit freezing its that nasty "warm bubble" against the mountains lol i vote with the others on a well done forecast. hopefully the last couple of winters will be a trend in a better direction than previously. side note - the leaves this year are pretty horrendous. just got back and was going through several north and ne ga counties. the maples are pretty, but most others are bland to blah. little color and many leaves have already fallen from a lot of the trees. The leaves in our part of NGa this year are bizarre, yeah. All the maples around here are outer 1/3 barren twigs, the next 1/3 of the branch is carrying brown (instead of the usual lovely red), and the 1/3 of the branch closest to the trunk is still green as summer. And the other trees aren't doing anything but dying back. It's been such a warm October here, it's like the poor trees are fighting themselves trying to decide whether to drop the leaves or keep them, and in their confusion forgot to color almost entirely. I suspect the winds on Saturday will just strip them bare of even the inner core of green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 What about Asheville Jordan? Asheville is looking very good this winter. Even though Asheville usually does not cash in on NWFS, there should be a couple of Gulf lows that will give you a chance for some good snow. I expect 133% of average snow this year in Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 According to your map, I will get 125% above normal snowfall but what is the ice storm risk.... I rather have snow than ice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The leaves in our part of NGa this year are bizarre, yeah. All the maples around here are outer 1/3 barren twigs, the next 1/3 of the branch is carrying brown (instead of the usual lovely red), and the 1/3 of the branch closest to the trunk is still green as summer. And the other trees aren't doing anything but dying back. It's been such a warm October here, it's like the poor trees are fighting themselves trying to decide whether to drop the leaves or keep them, and in their confusion forgot to color almost entirely. I suspect the winds on Saturday will just strip them bare of even the inner core of green. Identical here esp the maples. Water oaks are falling at the bottom and green as can be up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 According to your map, I will get 125% above normal snowfall but what is the ice storm risk.... I rather have snow than ice.... 125% for you, would be just 0.6". Admittedly that is six times the annual snowfall of Waycross, but still way too insignificant to hang a forecast on. When we get to the point where we can accurately predict the difference of 0.4" and 0.6" of snow several months out we won't even need a weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 According to your map, I will get 125% above normal snowfall but what is the ice storm risk.... I rather have snow than ice.... Ice risk in your area remains elevated this year with the number of storm possibilities we will see. As you know, everything has to come together right for you to have a big snowstorm where you are, but temperatures will be cooler than average and precipitation will be above average, so at some point you stand a good chance of seeing at least an inch or two of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 This forecast seems quite reasonable to me, especially for temperatures considering all of the bullish factors out there. Edit: anyone thinking this is hyping cold is probably not very familar with the correlations of various indices with SE winter wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 This forecast seems quite reasonable to me, especially for temperatures considering all of the bullish factors out there. Edit: anyone thinking this is hyping cold is probably not very familar with the correlations of various indices with SE winter wx. Yep... Still too early in the season.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 December 1958 Total Snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The leaves in our part of NGa this year are bizarre, yeah. All the maples around here are outer 1/3 barren twigs, the next 1/3 of the branch is carrying brown (instead of the usual lovely red), and the 1/3 of the branch closest to the trunk is still green as summer. And the other trees aren't doing anything but dying back. It's been such a warm October here, it's like the poor trees are fighting themselves trying to decide whether to drop the leaves or keep them, and in their confusion forgot to color almost entirely. I suspect the winds on Saturday will just strip them bare of even the inner core of green. by far the worst year I can remember in terms of color. Hopefully the wind doesn't take down all the leaves before they have a chance to change colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 by far the worst year I can remember in terms of color. Hopefully the wind doesn't take down all the leaves before they have a chance to change colors. What portion of your leaves have changed colors? Here on the northside of ATL many are changing pretty quickly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 December 1958 Total Snowfall December 1958 Total Snowfall.jpg According to that graphic... My area had 9".... not to shabby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 by far the worst year I can remember in terms of color. Hopefully the wind doesn't take down all the leaves before they have a chance to change colors. Funny, I was just thinking the same thing up here in Durham today. Not much color at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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