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Nov 1/2 Coastal Chance?


Zelocita Weather

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Looks like some consensus on a significant cold front and a digging trough over the EC and North East this weekend.

Some models hinting at cold temps and the chance for the first flakes for some in the forum.

Latest GFS certainly hints some in the area could see a few flurries to possibly a little more well N/W.

 

Looks like some consensus on a significant cold front and a digging trough over the EC and North East this weekend.

Some models hinting at cold temps and the chance for the first flakes for some in the forum.

Latest GFS certainly hints some in the area could see a few flurries to possibly a little more well N/W.

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Looks like some consensus on a significant cold front and a digging trough over the EC and North East this weekend.

Some models hinting at cold temps and the chance for the first flakes for some in the forum.

Latest GFS certainly hints some in the area could see a few flurries to possibly a little more well N/W.

JB in this morning's atmospheric avenger was also beating the drum on this as well being a first snow for many in the interior northeast. We have the cold air this week away from the coast thats for sure. Being on the coastal plain i feel given the current synoptic setup we would see scattered snow showers at the tail end at the most, like you said areas well N&W will have alot better shot of their first accumulating snows of the winter season

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I first posted in the Banter thread last week about this potential. It's funny how quickly it was dismissed, not so much in this forum but especially up in New England.

 

If you look at the 06z GFS, the surface never drops below freezing unless you're well north and west, more than say 50 miles NW of the city. With that being said, 850's are definitly cold enough to support a car topper.

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I first posted in the Banter thread last week about this potential. It's funny how quickly it was dismissed, not so much in this forum but especially up in New England.

If you look at the 06z GFS, the surface never drops below freezing unless you're well north and west, more than say 50 miles NW of the city. With that being said, 850's are definitly cold enough to support a car topper.

Dont think it was dismissed as much as climatologically speaking its just highly unlikely. I know the past few years we've been spoiled with earlier season surprise snows and seen where that got us for the ensuing winters. I agree that we may see a car topper but anything at this moment currently looks very unlikely ATM. Can it change? Yes but unless your from orange county,NY N&W i would expect more than that right now
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The fact that our progressive model the GFS is amped like this is notable. Would love to see the ECMWF later this afternoon to see what it says. Im going to stop short on saying accumulating snows for the immediate NYC area and surrounding suburbs. My gf is rockland county though may be getting some snow out of this though if you take this GFS run seriously

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As modeled, this is an inverted trough type scenario. We're likely to see some wild swings the next few days or see it completely dissapear as time goes on.

 

I still give this an outside chance of phasing earlier and cutting off to our southwest. Then instead of potential snow we would be looking at more heavy rain and wind with midler conditions. Time will tell.

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I first posted in the Banter thread last week about this potential. It's funny how quickly it was dismissed, not so much in this forum but especially up in New England.

 

If you look at the 06z GFS, the surface never drops below freezing unless you're well north and west, more than say 50 miles NW of the city. With that being said, 850's are definitly cold enough to support a car topper.

Dismissing this event more than five days out, is just as bad, if not worse, than calling for a big hit from a Nor' Easter. Clearly the synoptic setup is primed with all the right ingredients, for a big storm; the issue here is timing. And when it comes down to just timing, it's much better to just be a silent observer than begin making predictions on a specific outcome more than five days away.

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Anything more than a car topper could cause some significant damage. Most of the area trees are still 85-90% leafed. The three maples in my yard have just begun to change.

its a no brainer what damage would occur as the October 2011 storm is a perfect analog and the power companies and towns have done very little to get the trees far enough away from the power lines ............

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