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Costal storm discussion 10-21-14 to 10-23-14


Allsnow

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I really wouldn't take model QPF forecasts too seriously with this event. Systems that cut off are notorious for producing excessive rainfall wherever the best features setup. In this case, it looks like the area will be on the backside of the low so a lot of the rain should go more towards New England. It will still be cool and showery with periods of heavier rains, but not as bad as it could of been with the 500mb low over say Baltimore.

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Hoping that the meh solution on the GFS is out to lunch. Can't think of many worse outcomes than days of drizzle and light rain with chilly temps and breezy conditions. If it's going to be nasty then let it trully be nasty.

Considering how dry its been around here the last few months and practically every "event" has underperformed for most of the metro - I would lean more towards the dryer  GFS solution verifying

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102012/gfs_apcpn_neus_18.png

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Considering how dry its been around here the last few months and practically every "event" has underperformed for most of the metro - I would lean more towards the dryer GFS solution verifying

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102012/gfs_apcpn_neus_18.png

It hasn't been dry, at least not up by me. Measurable rain at least 3-4 days a week since Labor Day. Before that was dry.
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It hasn't been dry, at least not up by me. Measurable rain at least 3-4 days a week since Labor Day. Before that was dry.

3 - 4 days a week since labor day ???? yeah right - then why are you under the abnormally dry area on this map ? - if you have had 3 - 4 days of precip per week  in the last 7 weeks you wouldn't be abnormally dry.

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast

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3 - 4 days a week since labor day ???? yeah right - then why are you under the abnormally dry area on this map ? - if you have had 3 - 4 days of precip per week  in the last 7 weeks you wouldn't be abnormally dry.

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast

Because we had virtually zero rain here in July and August outside of a rouge thunderstorm

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Because we had virtually zero rain here in July and August outside of a rouge thunderstorm

Well show me a reporting station closer then Newark to your location and post it here - Newark is only a few miles south of you correct ? And they have only had 60 % of their normal precip amount since September 1st Labor Day

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.EWR.KOKX.html

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Well show me a reporting station closer then Newark to your location and post it here - Newark is only a few miles south of you correct ? And they have only had 60 % of their normal precip amount since September 1st Labor Day

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.EWR.KOKX.html

From my house to Newark Airport is just over 29 miles per google maps. By way of the crow is probably closer to 20.

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I accidentially deleted my previous post because it was showing as a duplicate and then it wasn't.

 

I used Caldwell Airport since that's less than ten miles from my house.

 

So far we're at 8 days with measurable rain there out of 20 or 40% for a weekly average of 2.8 days per week.

 

September was officially drier than I thought, but the second half of the month was more active.

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