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Costal storm discussion 10-21-14 to 10-23-14


Allsnow

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This would have been an incredible long duration winter storm. Here comes another batch from the north. I can only hope to see stuff like this in a couple months.

True, but we know that with winter storms we need to get everything lined up , placed perfectly and synced.   Storm track, intensity, speed, moisture availability, position of cold High Pressure, mesoscale banding, dryslotting, rain/snow line, etc.  Anyway, I wish you all good luck as I now live in Florida and will miss those lovely snowstorms.

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Must be the missing satellite data!!!!!

 

 

(I think the models have been pretty good actually)

None of the models really had the rain into the city and central NJ that occured yesterday morning. They were further south over SNJ. Last night the models were too far south and east with that convective blob that crossed from Long Island into NJ. The models were too far North in New England saying that the heaviest rains would be up into Maine when in reality they have been in MA. Today the models were too far east with the band coming through the LHV and crossing into NNJ. And none of the models really did well with the wind threat. Wasn't till a few high res models started picking it up yesterday.

 

Overall the models did a great job of sniffing out the storm and that it would be a slow mover. I guess you can't expect them to be very accurate with QPF considering the convective elements involved.

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The waves are essentially flat which is rare for a nor'easter of this caliber. Reminds me of the Boxing Day storm. The straight north winds blow down any swell created in the Se quadrant of the storm.

Overall a nice storm. My moms plane was diverted from lga to JFK last night after two failed landing attempts.

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The waves are essentially flat which is rare for a nor'easter of this caliber. Reminds me of the Boxing Day storm. The straight north winds blow down any swell created in the Se quadrant of the storm.

Overall a nice storm. My moms plane was diverted from lga to JFK last night after two failed landing attempts.

 

LI sound waves have been 3'-6' since yesterday. That's very impressive for the sound.

Like you said, North wind is off land and flattens the ocean out.

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Max winds just updated:

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS

 

NYC/LA GUARDIA 41 1114 PM 10/22 ASOS

NYC/JFK AIRPORT 39 920 PM 10/22 ASOS

1 NNE EAST NEW LONDO 51 344 AM 10/23 MESONET

BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 48 1257 AM 10/23 ASOS

MIDDLE BEACH 50 1100 PM 10/22 MESONET

1 E POINT LOOKOUT 45 232 AM 10/23 MESONET

WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT 52 715 PM 10/22 ASOS

EATONS NECK 51 215 AM 10/23 MESONET
NAPEAGUE 48 201 AM 10/23 MESONET
1 NNE CRYSTAL BROOK 48 800 PM 10/22 MESONET
MECOX 46 641 PM 10/22 MESONET
ISLIP AIRPORT 46 1040 PM 10/22 ASOS

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Jersey Shore jackpot.

 

...OCEAN COUNTY...
2 NNE BRICK TWP 3.88 830 AM 10/23 COCORAHS
NW PINE BEACH 3.10 800 AM 10/23 COCORAHS

 

1233 PM HAIL BRICK TWP 40.07N 74.12W
10/21/2014 M0.25 INCH OCEAN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

1235 PM HAIL BRICK TWP 40.07N 74.12W
10/21/2014 M0.50 INCH OCEAN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

1235 PM HAIL BRICK TWP 40.07N 74.12W
10/21/2014 M0.75 INCH OCEAN NJ SOCIAL MEDIA

1245 PM HAIL TOMS RIVER 39.95N 74.20W
10/21/2014 M0.25 INCH OCEAN NJ PUBLIC

1256 PM HAIL COLTS NECK 40.29N 74.17W
10/21/2014 M0.25 INCH MONMOUTH NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM HAIL BAYVILLE 39.91N 74.15W
10/21/2014 M0.25 INCH OCEAN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0105 PM HAIL POINT PLEASANT 40.08N 74.07W
10/21/2014 M0.25 INCH OCEAN NJ COCORAHS

0208 PM WATER SPOUT 1 E SEASIDE HEIGHTS 39.94N 74.05W
10/21/2014 ANZ451 NJ SOCIAL MEDIA

0445 PM HAIL JEFFERSON TWP 40.96N 74.59W
10/21/2014 M0.25 INCH MORRIS NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

 

 

 

Small waterspout off Lavallette shortly after 2:00 p.m. by JSHN contributor Matt Burk.

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Wouldn't this eclipse blocking mess be better described as a cut off low, rather than a Nor'easter?

 

Cut off low pressure systems are usually in the upper levels and typically do not deepen very much.

 

Here you had the initial cyclogenesis and the deepening phase which occured on Wednesday and into Wednesday night which was aided by a strengthening LLJ. On Thursday the low began to occlude and weaken. The result has been essentially a rotting low pressure system that more or less rained itself out over us. The epic paste bomb from late February 2010 essentially did the same thing.

 

This setup during January would have likely produced something epic.

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Cut off low pressure systems are usually in the upper levels and typically do not deepen very much.

 

Here you had the initial cyclogenesis and the deepening phase which occured on Wednesday and into Wednesday night which was aided by a strengthening LLJ. On Thursday the low began to occlude and weaken. The result has been essentially a rotting low pressure system that more or less rained itself out over us. The epic paste bomb from late February 2010 essentially did the same thing.

 

This setup during January would have likely produced something epic.

 

Interesting. I just saw it as a low not strung by the jet stream; a sit and spin crap fest.

 

Thank you for your response.

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