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Major Rain Event October 15-16


IsentropicLift

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As of Wednesday morning a deep trough was located over the Eastern United States with a closed 500mb low over the Ohio Valley in a classic location for a heavy precipitation event along the East Coast. Various shortwaves will rotate around the trough tonight into tomorrow morning and will deliver a threat of heavy training convection with the potential for flash flooding and perhaps some minor river or stream flooding.

 

Catagory 4 hurricane Gonzalo was also located north of Puerto Rico as of the 11AM advisory with a minimum central pressure of 949mb. The tropical cyclone was moving NW and is forecasted to become steered by the trough exiting off the east coast on day 2 perhaps striking Bermuda as a powerful major hurricane in about 48 hours.

 

The GFS has been showing the potential of having some of the moisture from Gonzalo becoming entrained into the trough and impacting eastern sections and New England late tommorrow. That will need to continue to be monitored.

 

While the overall instability is low, some breaks in sun today have inscreaded SBCAPE to a few hundred J/KG and SPC has placed southern areas in a 5% risk for damaging winds and a 2% risk for tornados.

 

Below is Uptons rainfall forecast. Generally ~ 2.00"+ closer to the city and a bit more the further east you go.

 

StormTotalQPFFcst.png

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This must be new but the GFS now allows you to see precip in 3 hour intervals but I think 6 z and 12 z are cumulative for the 6 hour period

 

THU 00Z 16-OCT 20.0 14.0 1012 97 94 0.21 580 569
THU 03Z 16-OCT 19.9 14.2 1011 98 80 0.25 579 569
THU 06Z 16-OCT 20.1 13.7 1009 97 97 0.65 577 569
THU 09Z 16-OCT 20.0 13.5 1007 98 99 0.47 575 569
THU 12Z 16-OCT 19.4 13.7 1007 98 80 0.64 574 568 

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As of Wednesday morning a deep trough was located over the Eastern United States with a closed 500mb low over the Ohio Valley in a classic location for a heavy precipitation event along the East Coast. Various shortwaves will rotate around the trough tonight into tomorrow morning and will deliver a threat of heavy training convection with the potential for flash flooding and perhaps some minor river or stream flooding.

 

Catagory 4 hurricane Gonzalo was also located north of Puerto Rico as of the 11AM advisory with a minimum central pressure of 949mb. The tropical cyclone was moving NW and is forecasted to become steered by the trough exiting off the east coast on day 2 perhaps striking Bermuda as a powerful major hurricane in about 48 hours.

 

The GFS has been showing the potential of having some of the moisture from Gonzalo becoming entrained into the trough and impacting eastern sections and New England late tommorrow. That will need to continue to be monitored.

 

While the overall instability is low, some breaks in sun today have inscreaded SBCAPE to a few hundred J/KG and SPC has placed southern areas in a 5% risk for damaging winds and a 2% risk for tornados.

 

Below is Uptons rainfall forecast. Generally ~ 2.00"+ closer to the city and a bit more the further east you go.

 

StormTotalQPFFcst.png

 

NWS attempt to forecast and differentiate among the various local stations concerning rain amounts to the hundredth of an inch is lol worthy. 

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IMO this will very soon become a nowcasting event - part of the problem with previous storm threads was not paying attention to what was going on real time on radar and assuming somehow certain models would end up verifying which they did not..........

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Well now, are you actually putting stock in the driest model?

Models have been hinting for days that we would see two precip maxes, one in eastern PA and the other over Long Island. Most people in this sub-forum will be relying on the shortwave coming through around 06z for our heaviest rains.

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IMO this will very soon become a nowcasting event - part of the problem with previous storm threads was not paying attention to what was going on real time on radar and assuming somehow certain models would end up verifying which they did not..........

I agree with this statement. Even our short range Hi-Res models have trouble picking up little nuances that can change the outcome of a storm. Nowcasting is a pretty good move at this point. I do agree with yanksfan in the two precip maxes being E.PA and LI but i would shift the LI max to include NYC unless he actually inferred that as well

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I agree with yanks about bullseye being in Long Island and eastern Pa. Although I think I would include NYC in that to get at least 1.25-2.00 inches. Especially if that frontal boundary takes it's time like it is right now on the eastern PA. Btw I think accuweather stole my winter forecast take a look... I mean they literally have the same map as me. How rude! http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-2014-2015-winter-forecast/35422753

Oh well. Enjoy ur afternoon folks

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