October 13th-14th Severe Event

[downeastnc]

Folks,

 I've been asked how it is looking for Atlanta and just north for tomorrow with regard to severe potential. This involves kids going to school. Does anyone here have much confidence in how bad or not so bad it will get in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs corridor between sunrise and the afternoon? TIA.

 

Honestly these type of setups are hell to predict as far as the individual areas along the line that truely get the severe weather....and the timing of that as well.....Another factor that will make any real timing prediction tough is the more discrete cells that may or may not form out in front of the main squall line as we are currently seeing in southern Al and Fl panhandle....

 

Timing does seem to indicate the line will be in or around the ATL metro area around 6am but how bad it will be is pretty difficult to determine......

[audioguy3107]

Folks,

 I've been asked how it is looking for Atlanta and just north for tomorrow with regard to severe potential. This involves kids going to school. Does anyone here have much confidence in how bad or not so bad it will get in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs corridor between sunrise and the afternoon? TIA.

 

I've been here all too long to know that only under the most extreme circumstances do these QLCS make it to Atlanta without dissipating if it's during the overnight hours.  During the afternoon peak heating during April without a protective wedge maybe, but these setups usually bring nothing more than a few downpours and maybe a gust of wind.  Severe weather here may be a little more likely if the atmosphere can destabilize after the initial line moves through toward the afternoon before the front moves through.  Redevelopment would be likely if we don't get worked over too much in the morning.

[buckeyefan1]

CAE........   

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE FORECASTED
JUST CHANCE POPS EARLY BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH INCREASING
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BECOMES
DEEPER. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 2
INCHES TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TOOL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS TUESDAY.

THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
PLUS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET
SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR WILL BE
HIGH. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE H85 WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. THE NAM
HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -2 TO -3. THE WEAK INSTABILITY APPEARS
REASONABLE BECAUSE CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT STRONG CONVECTION
NEAR THE GULF COAST WITH SOME DIMINISHING OF INTENSITY FARTHER
NORTHWARD IN THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE HIGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE FRONT SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ABOUT MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA EARLIER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS SUPPORT
MID-LEVEL DRYING BY THAT TIME. THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A RELATIVELY SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT
BECAUSE OF THE ASSOCIATED H5 CUT-OFF LOW SUPPORTS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED BY CONVECTION TO
OUR SOUTH. AN AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORTS GENERAL RAINFALL
AROUND 1 INCH.

[mackerel_sky]

CAE........

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY IN THE WARM

ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE FORECASTED

JUST CHANCE POPS EARLY BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH INCREASING

POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BECOMES

DEEPER. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 2

INCHES TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT

MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TOOL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS TUESDAY.

THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT

WILL LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT

PLUS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET

SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR WILL BE

HIGH. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE H85 WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. THE NAM

HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -2 TO -3. THE WEAK INSTABILITY APPEARS

REASONABLE BECAUSE CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE

TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND INTO THE

FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT STRONG CONVECTION

NEAR THE GULF COAST WITH SOME DIMINISHING OF INTENSITY FARTHER

NORTHWARD IN THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH

INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE HIGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE FRONT SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA

ABOUT MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING

OUT OF THE AREA EARLIER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS SUPPORT

MID-LEVEL DRYING BY THAT TIME. THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD DIMINISH

FROM WEST TO EAST.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A RELATIVELY SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT

BECAUSE OF THE ASSOCIATED H5 CUT-OFF LOW SUPPORTS SIGNIFICANT

RAINFALL. HOWEVER...RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED BY CONVECTION TO

OUR SOUTH. AN AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORTS GENERAL RAINFALL

AROUND 1 INCH.

Just turrible, turrible , turrible! This seems to be a recurring statement that they will be able to cut and paste all winter long!

How come moisture transport is never robbed over MS, AL, and LA?

[calculus1]

Quite the line of storms splitting AL down the middle from north to south currently.  A few storms out in front of the main line too.

 

[AJF0602]

there is a nasty little couplet down in the florida panhandle right now

[Shawn]

 

CAE........    

 

Looking at some modeling, I notice that the new super-res HRR is wanting to strengthen a line pretty robustly as it crosses the midlands and then develop a bit more on the tail end... hm

[downeastnc]

there is a nasty little couplet down in the florida panhandle right now

 

TDS with it so that one was the real deal...

[toxictwister00]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 543
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WESTERN GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1145 PM
UNTIL 700 AM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 540...WW 541...WW 542...

DISCUSSION...A PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND A
STRONGLY SHEARED KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EMBEDDED BOWING AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21030.


...MEAD

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I guess there's no point going to sleep tonight and missing all the action ( if there is any).

[downeastnc]

the north half of the line really has lost its punch with the exception of a small area in TN, it no longer has that ominous look to it, generally when I see lighter returns out in front of the main convection its a sign that its going to be a dud.....assuming you want to see some big wind etc.....

 

now folks in the Florida pandhandle and southern AL/GA look to get rocked with the southern end of the line looking much more threatening which might explain why the northern end is losing its punch.

 

Of course this could all change over the next few hrs.....

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Judging by radar, I think it's very silly there is a tornado watch in North and West GA.

[downeastnc]

Judging by radar, I think it's very silly there is a tornado watch in North and West GA.

 

I was canceled actually

[downeastnc]

Timing continues to become better for central and eastern NC/SC during the day tomorrow, could be a few tornado warnings as the SE flow strengthens during the day, its already very evident on radar with storms coming into the NC/SC border areas, the flip side to that is the clouds etc associated with said activity might dampen destabilization.

 

The SPC did increase the slight risk area quite a bit..... I would watch any discrete cells out in front of the main line closely in NC and SC tomorrow...

 

Its nuts that it is still 70 at almost 3am with a DP of 68........any sun in the morning and afternoon could really set the stage for the squall line to go off again.

[Hvward]

Just got home from Mississippi and considering a quick nap then heading for central nc but who knows.  I targeted too far south in MS today where shear was down just a bit.  The only cool things I got were a couple pic's of the shelf cloud and a lightning strike that was right next to my car from my dash cam.  Oh and me driving in the hardest rain I have ever driven in for 2 straight hours.  Highlight of my life, let me tell you.  Then I got suck in Starkville because I all the red lights were out and there was nearly a wreck at every single one.  Saw a little damage there.  Could have had a little EF0, I saw a caution light knocked off, a tree twisted off and laying back south, and some metal from a gas station blown off the side.  Anyways, those three cells north of ATL near Canton, GA look pretty mean.  They have rotation for sure.

[downeastnc]

There are a couple almost interesting spins in the line NE of ATL, makes sense it will get ugly since they dropped the tornado watch for the area.

 

If that one line segment headed for ATL was out in front then there might be a shot at some pretty serious winds but most of the locations I looked at are mid 20's to low 30's for peak gust where the worst of it ( according to radar) has crossed in the last few hrs....

[AJF0602]

Timing continues to become better for central and eastern NC/SC during the day tomorrow, could be a few tornado warnings as the SE flow strengthens during the day, its already very evident on radar with storms coming into the NC/SC border areas, the flip side to that is the clouds etc associated with said activity might dampen destabilization.

 

The SPC did increase the slight risk area quite a bit..... I would watch any discrete cells out in front of the main line closely in NC and SC tomorrow...

 

Its nuts that it is still 70 at almost 3am with a DP of 68........any sun in the morning and afternoon could really set the stage for the squall line to go off again.

 

 

The SPC read up mentioned mcape of ~1500, originally this was thought to be high shear/low cape getting into this area, a good deal of SC and NC should see heating if that area of showers driving in from the SE does not expand in cloud cover, it will be interesting to see what happens later; even if it busts I had fun reading the updates in the TN valley forum and thank everyone for the info that came in.

[downeastnc]

The SPC read up mentioned mcape of ~1500, originally this was thought to be high shear/low cape getting into this area, a good deal of SC and NC should see heating if that area of showers driving in from the SE does not expand in cloud cover, it will be interesting to see what happens later; even if it busts I had fun reading the updates in the TN valley forum and thank everyone for the info that came in.

 

Well both RAH and MHX discussions just out overnight really downplay Tuesday and make Wed night the timeframe for the best chance of severe in central and eastern NC....guess we will see but its quite a disconnect from the SPC which has most of NC in a slight risk and a 5% tornado area for most of central NC for today not Wed.

[AJF0602]

Yeah I noticed that as well... and the spc 'see text' for day 2 does not sound impressive.

[oconeexman]

Warning for Athens...lookout Lookout!

Radar indicated rotation.

[mackerel_sky]

There appears to be no convection robbing thunderstorms in the gulf with this one for a change! Radar looks juicy!

[mackerel_sky]

Isn't this arriving about 12 hours faster than was forecast? I was hearing "evening" from most local mets? I will be in the meat of the line in about an hour or so?

[Solak]

700 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 700 AM UNTIL 200 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE

[NavarreDon]

Got pounded last night down here in Navarre & the surrounding areas. Onshore wind flow all day long fired up discrete cells during the afternoon. Some real gulley washers. The main show started about 10:30 last night as the front approached. Some of the most vivid lightning I have ever seen. The local tv station (WEAR Pensacola) reported 19,991 strikes within 1 hour. I have no idea what they use for data & their viewing area includes portions of SE MS, S AL, & NW FL. None the less quite impressive. Rainfall totals varied from about 2" to 5" in some isolated spots. Wind got pretty gusty a couple times thru the night. All in all it was great to see a front from the other side so to speak, compared to the Mnts, Hope everyone stays safe today!

[Solak]

From CHS...

738 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...CONVECTION HAS RACING EASTWARD THROUGH GEORGIA SINCE 3 AM AND WASMOVING INTO THE CSRA PRIOR TO DAWN...MUCH FASTER THAN ALL MODELEXPECTATIONS. SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OFOUR FORECAST AREA. A CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG ORPERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY SCRAPE OUR INLAND GEORGIA ZONESTHROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING OR SHIFT INTO THE SC MIDLANDS ANDPERHAPS OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES LATE MORNING OR EARLY THISAFTERNOON. THE QUICKER TIMING WILL COME INTO PLAY WITH LATERCONVECTION TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW CONVECTION ALSO INCREASINGOVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH FLORIDA WITH TOPS COOLING ONSATELLITE. THE MAIN PROBLEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECONVECTION AND SPECIALLY OUR RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. AHEAD OF THECONVECTION TO THE WEST...ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTHCAROLINA...THERE IS A WINDOW FOR A PERIOD OF INSOLATION AND BETTERATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN SE SOUTH CAROLINA.MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR 1500 TO PERHAPS 2000J/KG SB CAPES TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR ATMIDDAY. THE AVERAGE SOLUTION ON 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION MODELSINDICATE THE REFORMATION OF A FORKED CONVECTION SEGMENT PATTERNWITH UNCERTAINTIES ON WHICH SEGMENT WILL BECOME THE MAIN QLCSPRIOR TO A SECONDARY CONVECTIVE LINE DURING THIS EVENING. THE LEADCONVECTION PRIOR TO SUNSET COULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEEPERCONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND PRODUCE SMALL BOWS AND OR BROKEN LINESEGMENTS AS THE DEEP LAYERED WIND FIELDS BUILD.A MORE CONCERNING RISK FOR POSSIBLE LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER ANDPERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK LOOKS TO BE IN THE 22Z TO 03ZTIME FRAME ACROSS INLAND ZONES BORDERING THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS.MODELS SHOW GOOD BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING0-1KM HELICITY VALUES IN THE 150-200 RANGE AND FAIRLY DECENT MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER A REGION WHERE STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHTSARE OCCURRING AND 850 MB WIND FIELDS NEARING 40 KT. WE AGREE WITHTHE 5 PERCENT TOR RISK FROM SPC BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWNWHICH PORTION OF THE INLAND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA REGION WOULD BEUNDER THE GUN...GIVEN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITYBY LATE EVENING. WE HAVE FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT A CONVECTIVE WATCHWILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.SUMMING OUR RISK TODAY IS CONSENSUS SLIGHT RISK AGREEMENT WITH SPCWITH A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT UNLIKELY BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IFTHE LINE ARRIVES WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER INSTABILITY. AN ISOLATEDTORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING OR THE FIRST PART OF THEOVERNIGHT INLAND FROM U.S. 17 IN SOUTH CAROLINA....AGAIN DEPENDENTON COMPLEX TIMING AND MESOSCALE CONVECTION PATTERNS.OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE ON THE OVERALL FORECAST...INCREASINGPOPS WSW TO ENE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT ASCONVECTIVE RAINS SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. TODAY WILL BE THE 7TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF TEMPS IN THE 80S AND PERHAPS THE FOURTH DAYOF SOME RECORDS IF WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE EARLY ON. PWATS ARE ABOVE 2 INCHES FROM LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS BUT MOTIONS WILL BE SWIFT AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS DO NOTSEEM TO BE TOO BIG OF A CONCERN.

[mackerel_sky]

That bow echo about to hit Anderson looks especially nasty! Then heading this way!

[arlwx]

_{TORNADO WARNING}

_{NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC}

_{753 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014}

 

_{THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A}

 

_{* TORNADO WARNING FOR...}

  _{STEPHENS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA...}

  _{OCONEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...}

_{* UNTIL 845 AM EDT}

 

_{* AT 751 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A}

  _{SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS}

  _{LOCATED NEAR EASTANOLEE...OR NEAR TOCCOA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30}

  _MPH.

 

_{* THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...}

  _{LONG CREEK.}

  _WALHALLA.

  _{MOUNTAIN REST.}

[NEGa]

Parents said the sirens went off in Athens and a lot of thunder and lightning. Not one rumble of thunder imby lol. No winds to speak of either. However it has been pouring down rain. 1.47" so far

[oconeexman]

Waiting on my twister...under warning for the next 25 minutes!. Gotten real dark and eerily calm.

[Cold Rain]

That bow echo about to hit Anderson looks especially nasty! Then heading this way!

Let us know if you get any wind with that segment. It still looks bowed out, but the northern part of it looks to have weakened over the last few frames...just going by the reflectivity.