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Severe Weather Threat October 7-8


Dsnowx53

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The HRRR is starting to show some more impressive parameters now. It has an initial area of showers...a brief break and then the best forcing arrives. You can see individual updrafts on the HRRR graphics, but the sigtor parameter also is impressive.

 

hrrrNEsf_con_stp_015.gif

john great seeing you post here again. I have always enjoyed your insight and opinions on weather developments in our area, your a real asset here

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Expect widespread damage then

yup expect to have one of our best severe outbreaks this year. seriously the slight/moderate risks issued this year have been almost the kiss of death. I know that forecasting organized severe weather in this part of the country is far from a lay up as it is in the south and central states

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I think what's most alarming is that this setup is pegged right at a very densely populated area from NJ to Boston. (Early part occurring before sunrise) I know that shouldn't sway SPC, but their decision to downgrade to SEE TEXT last update was curious.

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yup expect to have one of our best severe outbreaks this year. seriously the slight/moderate risks issued this year have been almost the kiss of death. I know that forecasting organized severe weather in this part of the country is far from a lay up as it is in the south and central states

All kidding aside, in my years here, our best outbreaks have come somewhat by surprise.  When there's alot of hype, etc, always seems to underperform for whatever reason.

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I think what's most alarming is that this setup is pegged right at a very densely populated area from NJ to Boston. (Early part occurring before sunrise) I know that shouldn't sway SPC, but their decision to downgrade to SEE TEXT last update was curious.

SPC tends to overplay tornado threats in this part of the country. I'm not sure what good a tornado watch issued around 06z will do. Most people will be sleeping and very few keep weather radios in this part of the country.

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I think what's most alarming is that this setup is pegged right at a very densely populated area from NJ to Boston. (Early part occurring before sunrise) I know that shouldn't sway SPC, but their decision to downgrade to SEE TEXT last update was curious.

if we want a nice severe outbreak we want SPC to downplay it. many times during forecasted severe events with low-moderate risk the atmosphere decides to take a dump instead and we get terrible crapvection :lol:. when they all hope is lost ill get excited

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SPC tends to overplay tornado threats in this part of the country. I'm not sure what good a tornado watch issued around 06z will do. Most people will be sleeping and very few keep weather radios in this part of the country.

Most smartphones have auto alerts for Tornado and Flash Flood warnings, no? Can you imagine the public outcry if there was a scenario with tornadoes at night near NYC and no watch had been issued prior?
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SPC tends to overplay tornado threats in this part of the country. I'm not sure what good a tornado watch issued around 06z will do. Most people will be sleeping and very few keep weather radios in this part of the country.

I always have my radio on full volume on my iPhone at night, safety first and tornadoes can hit anywhere in the US ( but Alaska )

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Most smartphones have auto alerts for Tornado and Flash Flood warnings, no? Can you imagine the public outcry if there was a scenario with tornadoes at night near NYC and no watch had been issued prior?

If conditions still look favorable by 02z I would be in favor of a long duration watch going into place with an emphasis on the threat lasting into the morning hours. That way it will make the 11:00 news.

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Some of the modeling has some fairly ridiculous CAPE values around 06z coinciding with strong shear and helicity.

 

There's a disconnect on the latest high resolution models. And I think that's my main concern. Much of this is contingent upon instability (however meager it may be) developing while the low level shear is maximized, which is right near the strongest forcing. Newer high resolution models show the best low level shear passing to our northeast before instability develops. A lot of this a result of prefrontal convection and subsequent stability. 

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There's a disconnect on the latest high resolution models. And I think that's my main concern. Much of this is contingent upon instability (however meager it may be) developing while the low level shear is maximized, which is right near the strongest forcing. Newer high resolution models show the best low level shear passing to our northeast before instability develops. A lot of this a result of prefrontal convection and subsequent stability. 

with any severe setup like this seems pieces come together west or north of our area, that may factor into why we haven't had that widespread severe weather outbreak for the tri state area in years

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There's a disconnect on the latest high resolution models. And I think that's my main concern. Much of this is contingent upon instability (however meager it may be) developing while the low level shear is maximized, which is right near the strongest forcing. Newer high resolution models show the best low level shear passing to our northeast before instability develops. A lot of this a result of prefrontal convection and subsequent stability. 

Have you seen the 18z HRRR? Really rakes I-95 from Philly right up into SNE. Sort of misses my area but it's a close call.

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I can't remember the last time one came through at that hour

 

3/5/08 was the best one that I can remember.The squall line looked fierce on radar

and I had 50-60 mph gusts in Long Beach.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/pns/03052008.txt

 

0421 AM TSTM WND GST KENNEDY AIRPORT 40.66N 73.78W

03/05/2008 M61.00 MPH QUEENS NY ASOS

WIND GUST 61 MPH

 

0425 AM TSTM WND GST LONG BEACH 40.59N 73.67W

03/05/2008 E60.00 MPH NASSAU NY PUBLIC

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20080304

 

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 102

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

300 AM EST WED MAR 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK

FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 300 AM UNTIL 600 AM EST.

HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF

NEWARK NEW JERSEY TO 40 MILES EAST OF LAKEHURST NEW JERSEY. FOR

A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 99...WW 101...

DISCUSSION...S JERSEY SQLN WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY ENEWD...WHILE CELLS

WITHIN LINE SWEEP RAPIDLY NNE. AREA VWP AND SFC DATA SUGGEST

POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG LWR TROPOSPHERIC WINDS TO REACH THE SFC AS

AIR MASS RECOVERS S OF N-MOVING WARM FRONT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 21050.

...CORFIDI

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