buckeyefan1 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 That is wierd because TWC monthly observations show that the last recorded rainfall was on the 3rd...I will pay attention to airport now since it is just 6 miles from my house...But in any case... that is still 2 weeks without any precip....we need it... Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hope come no body is using the winter of 1972-73 as an analog??? I mean, my grandparents told me that the south got swamped with an ice storm in January and a blizzard in February..(Orangeburg got 28" of snow)....seems like the ideal combination but everyone is not using that year...why?/? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hope come no body is using the winter of 1972-73 as an analog??? I mean, my grandparents told me that the south got swamped with an ice storm in January and a blizzard in February..(Orangeburg got 28" of snow)....seems like the ideal combination but everyone is not using that year...why?/? Orangeburg, 1972-3 is likely not being used because it was a strong El Nino among other things. There is essentially no chance for a strong El Nino this winter. A weak to possibly low end moderate is what's most likely (probably weak). In addition, it had a +AO, +NAO, and -PDO, none of which are expected this winter. A winter having had incredible amounts of wintry precip. is not a reason to just go ahead and pick that winter. That seems bass ackwards to me. Rather, if a particualr winter has similar indices or whatever vs. what is expected for the upcoming winter, it makes sense to then pick that winter as an analog. Once it is picked, then one can analyze the wintry precip. for that winter if desired. That's how I do it fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I've noticed that the leaves on the northside of ATL have changed markedly overall over the last few days. I'm assuming that the cool nights of a few days back really got things moving on a good number of trees. Some are pretty coloful. I think that the jury is still out as to whether or not the peak will be nice since we haven't reached it yet. I had earlier predicted a 11/10-20 overall peak. I now think it is going to be more like 11/3-15 due to this acceleration as well as upcoming cold. Hopefully, the upcoming storm/cold front this weekend won't blow too many leaves off! That, in itself, may prevent a good peak overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Orangeburg, 1972-3 is likely not being used because it was a strong El Nino among other things. There is essentially no chance for a strong El Nino this winter. A weak to possibly low end moderate is what's most likely (probably weak). In addition, it had a +AO, +NAO, and -PDO, none of which are expected this winter. A winter having had incredible amounts of wintry precip. is not a reason to just go ahead and pick that winter. That seems bass ackwards to me. Rather, if a particualr winter has similar indices or whatever vs. what is expected for the upcoming winter, it makes sense to then pick that winter as an analog. Once it is picked, then one can analyze the wintry precip. for that winter if desired. That's how I do it fwiw. Thanks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I've noticed that the leaves on the northside of ATL have changed markedly overall over the last few days. I'm assuming that the cool nights of a few days back really got things moving on a good number of trees. Some are pretty coloful. I think that the jury is still out as to whether or not the peak will be nice since we haven't reached it yet. I had earlier predicted a 11/10-20 overall peak. I now think it is going to be more like 11/3-15 due to this acceleration as well as upcoming cold. Hopefully, the upcoming storm/cold front this weekend won't blow too many leaves off! That, in itself, may prevent a good peak overall. The trees are really starting to pop here in Asheville. I think our peak will happen this weekend but they will most likely be gone off the trees by Monday with the windy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The trees are really starting to pop here in Asheville. I think our peak will happen this weekend but they will most likely be gone off the trees by Monday with the windy conditions. Orangeburg is 40 miles south of Columbia and the leaves here have changed earlier than any other year I can remember... All the pinecones have been stripped since late August.... This could be interesting ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Another warm and kind of muggy day here today. Currently its 80 with a dew point of 64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Today kinda reminds me of the first warm day of the spring. Temp near 80, dewpoint pushing 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Currently 79 with a dew point of 60 and 52% humidity with a slight breeze... In just 3 days it is going to go from spring to early winter..... I love this state,... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Indeed Boy, that line of showers sure did fall apart as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Its still 73 here and 54 in Asheville. I haven't lived here long but i can tell already i don't like this downsloping crap...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Its still 73 here and 54 in Asheville. I haven't lived here long but i can tell already i don't like this downsloping crap...LOL How do you think I feel....I live 40 miles south of Columbia..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 How do you think I feel....I live 40 miles south of Columbia..... Oh man, i'm sorry to hear that!...LOL No offense, but i hate the climate there even more than here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Oh man, i'm sorry to hear that!...LOL No offense, but i hate the climate there even more than here!! So do I.... The only shot for decent accumulating snowstorm is cold air from the north, gulf moisture from the south, and a front moving from SW to NE converging at the same time....anything else and it is less accumulation or an ice storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 0.05" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 0.00001 yesterday, currently 42, and basically, this is day 16 without precip! Can't wait to end the dry spell with flurries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 .04" last evening --- it took 4 separate showers to pile up that much rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 .03 last night. I actually had to turn on the A/C last night as it had gotten a bit warm in the house. Today though, windows are open and such a delightful day compared to the last 2 days. Currently 68, dew point at 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Wow.... Yesterday got up to 81 and right now it is 72....9 degree drop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 How do you think I feel....I live 40 miles south of Columbia..... I live 20 miles north of Columbia just south of the Fairfield County line in Blythewood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Oh man, i'm sorry to hear that!...LOL No offense, but i hate the climate there even more than here!! Try living in or right near Downtown Columbia SC. Its even hotter than Orangeburg. LOL. But not quite as hot or humid as Waycross GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Just 3.13" for October. If we didn't get any more rain for the rest of the year, we'd still be above the yearly average by about 8" +/-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 We got as warm as 61° a couple of hours ago before the temperatures started dropping. It's now 57° and cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 0.93 for the month. Weak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 CAE ended the month with 3.04 in the bucket, that is -.04 below normal, and +2.9 above temp wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 CAE ended the month with 3.04 in the bucket, that is -.04 below normal, and +2.9 above temp wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Using Kestrel, it's currently 46/40 on UNCA campus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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