The 4 Seasons Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 58F* on the 18z GFS. I also did a HYSPLIT run and calculations that gave me a high of 59F around 18z tomorrow. And funny enough I used the super cold NAM as my model in the HYSPLIT run. The only way this doesn't work out is if the speed of the system is not modeled correctly more importantly modeled too slow so the onset of precipitation would be quicker and therefore my high won't work. Yeah, you're right, the 18z run now has 58, the 12z run has 54. That has me worried a lot now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 We'll see, this should be another interesting day with results spread all over the place. I just can't see the USL being 8 or 9 degrees off with the high, it's never that bad. Only time will tell.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 We'll see, this should be another interesting day with results spread all over the place. I just can't see the USL being 8 or 9 degrees off with the high, it's never that bad. Only time will tell.. Day 2 bud day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Yeah, forgot about that one, my fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Day 2 bud day 2. The question is, do the strong southerlies kick in, or not? 46-58/29-33/13-25/0.00-0.50 But seriously... 49/31/17/0.20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The national consensus predictably follows the USL...which isn't much help when an actual synoptic system rolls through. Not buying upper 50s for the high unless the precip ends up being delayed until after 20 UTC. It's going to be cloudy and there is no warm advection ahead of the front. Low 50s seems probable though. For precip and wind, I couldn't help but notice how vigorous the wave looks on the water vapor and the 500 mb maps. Biggest concern is how short lived the best forcing is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The question is, do the strong southerlies kick in, or not? 46-58/29-33/13-25/0.00-0.50 But seriously... 49/31/17/0.20 BTW, there is also a chance it is 56F or better at 6z if the wind decides to pick up unexpectedly like it did day 1/2. Temps are 12C+ at about 780mb even at 6/7z tonight, so the low camp will be sweating tonight and praying the wind dies off tonight especially for your sake and 49F LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 BTW, there is also a chance it is 56F or better at 6z if the wind decides to pick up unexpectedly like it did day 1/2. Temps are 12C+ at about 780mb even at 6/7z tonight, so the low camp will be sweating tonight and praying the wind dies off tonight especially for your sake and 49F LOL One of the reasons I didn't go lower than 49F is because of the possibility of a 06z high. Still, with how clear it is tonight, even with a little breeze I fully expect they'll be able to get down to 42F-48F by 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 48/34/16/.29 4th to 400th probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 One of the reasons I didn't go lower than 49F is because of the possibility of a 06z high. Still, with how clear it is tonight, even with a little breeze I fully expect they'll be able to get down to 42F-48F by 06z. Even being clear, if the wind picks up it wouldn't take much to mix to 780mb or slightly higher and then it won't even matter. Clear or cloudy with 12C+ at such a low height mid 50s is plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Even being clear, if the wind picks up it wouldn't take much to mix to 780mb or slightly higher and then it won't even matter. Clear or cloudy with 12C+ at such a low height mid 50s is plausible. Yea that's what I was picking up on too... Those are really warm temperatures at 700-hPa and its pretty much going to have to start precipitating right at sunrise to keep the temp in check. That certainly could happen, but if the rain holds off until 18z or so, any amount of mixing could bring us into the mid to upper 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Even being clear, if the wind picks up it wouldn't take much to mix to 780mb or slightly higher and then it won't even matter. Clear or cloudy with 12C+ at such a low height mid 50s is plausible. True, I just suspect the clearing will aid decoupling and kill the (mixing-strength) winds. If I remember correctly, 10/14-10/15 had a lot of high clouds that prevented said decoupling. We'll see, though. EDIT: Or maybe there WILL be clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 52/31/23/0.16" I had little confidence in the high because that will depend on precip holding off long enough and getting enough solar insulation to get mixing ahead of the front, so I picked a middle ground number. Can see anything from 48-60 though. Blended the Euro and hi-res models for the low tomorrow evening as they did well day 2 in a similar situation. For precip, it looks like a pretty quick shot of light to moderate precip, so I went low. If a convective cell happens to hit Butte they'll get more than what I have, but wanted to take that chance. NAM has consistently shown 30-35 knot westerly winds at the top of the shallow mixed layer in CAA behind the front and the 18z GFS trended that direction so didn't have an issue going so high on wind. If that works out for me that would help with the consensus only being 13 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 51/31/15/0.30. Day 5 is going to be crapshoot with some luck in timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graupel Flux Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 54/31/18/0.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Down to 59F one hour than back up to 63F. That is the volatility I was talking about tonight if the wind stays up through 6z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Down to 59F one hour than back up to 63F. That is the volatility I was talking about tonight if the wind stays up through 6z tonight. You love being right, dontcha? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 You love being right, dontcha? I'm just competitive is all. More so on the poker table lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Agree that the key is when the precip / front comes through tomorrow, which is complicated by the complex terrain. If precip starts between 12-15 UTC, the 46-52F camp will likely verify with the precip. keeping in the nocturnal inversion before frontal passage. If precip holds off till after 18 UTC there will be a few hours to warm up with some downsloping, and with 700 hPa temps in the 12-15C range, its not unfathomable to expect temps in the 55-60F range if there is any mixing at all. Low is likely to be in the 30-34F range with some snowfall. Whether or not it gets cooler will depend if the winds die down, not super likely with strong CAA behind the front before 06 UTC. Rain is a total crap shoot... if they can get under a convective cell it could drop a quick .2", but I'm not willing to bet on convection in the valley. 55/33/20/0.10" Did you mean 750 hPa temps? 54/30/19/0.18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Still 61. I'm not sure if I would've had the balls to go warmer than I did for the high based strictly on a 6z high the morning, but I'm kicking myself for just assuming they'd fall off tonight. My big play is on winds tomorrow anyway so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Did you mean 750 hPa temps? 54/30/19/0.18 Oops I mean more like 2-5C at 700 hPa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Helena went from 71 - 59 - 72 in the last 3 hours. That's some serious downsloping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Helena went from 71 - 59 - 72 in the last 3 hours. That's some serious downsloping! There is a good LLJ below 750mb over the area helping to mix down some warmer air tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 54 at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 54 at 6z. Haha, that's a good one Butte... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 49/34/14/.3 for today. Got screwed over by the fact that it forgot to get cold last night...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 No substantial rain yet, and mixing has already begun. Max is looking pretty good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 No substantial rain yet, and mixing has already begun. Max is looking pretty good right now.Of course he is...58F now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 All of this extra heating that is probably going to provide some extra CAPE for the cells just to the east of Butte. Again its hit and miss with the cells in the mountains, but a quick burst of very heavy rain can drop a few tenths no problem. This line looks reasonably solid, so lets see what happens. Anyone with a tenth or less (including myself) should be pretty worried right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Really should've stuck with 54 because GFS is doing so well with highs, but I got scared by models going under 51 otherwise. A good downpour and winds will help me, but low is where I'm gambling the most and it's not promising when the high get to 58+. EDIT: Someone at UNCA on guidance went from 900th to 90th on high alone. He'll crash back to earth with no precip, but it's little frustrating second-guessing is hurting me in this city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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