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WxChallenge 2014-2015


Jurg

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I had 62 for the high so today is turning into a huge success. Mallow has a decent shot at a perfect forecast.

 

This is my third year doing the WxChallenge... if things verify, this will be my first perfect forecast. I would never have expected it in a city like Butte on a day like this.

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This is my third year doing the WxChallenge... if things verify, this will be my first perfect forecast. I would never have expected it in a city like Butte on a day like this.

 

Congrats! (assuming the wind doesn't do anything crazy)

 

My only perfect forecast was in Juneau of all places, so you never know.

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This is a comparison I did for the 22Z run of the USL model versus the actual obs in butte for the day. This is for the past 4 days, the only official day was Friday and is posted on the wxchallenge website. The numbers represent a departure from the actual obs. For example on Friday High -4, the forecasted high of the 22Z run was 4 degrees below the actual ob.

 

     High  Low  Wind

Fri    -4    +2       0

Sat   -1      0      -1

Sun  -3    +3       0

Mon -3     -2      -5  (so far) 

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50/32/16/.30

 

The NAM is going for a high of 48 tomorrow as well as the ECMWF. GFS is at 54.

58F* on the 18z GFS. I also did a HYSPLIT run and calculations that gave me a high of 59F around 18z tomorrow. And funny enough I used the super cold NAM as my model in the HYSPLIT run. The only way this doesn't work out is if the speed of the system is not modeled correctly more importantly modeled too slow so the onset of precipitation would be quicker and therefore my high won't work. 

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Agree that the key is when the precip / front comes through tomorrow, which is complicated by the complex terrain.

 

If precip starts between 12-15 UTC, the 46-52F camp will likely verify with the precip. keeping in the nocturnal inversion before frontal passage. If precip holds off till after 18 UTC there will be a few hours to warm up with some downsloping, and with 700 hPa temps in the 12-15C range, its not unfathomable to expect temps in the 55-60F range if there is any mixing at all. Low is likely to be in the 30-34F range with some snowfall. Whether or not it gets cooler will depend if the winds die down, not super likely with strong CAA behind the front before 06 UTC. Rain is a total crap shoot... if they can get under a convective cell it could drop a quick .2", but I'm not willing to bet on convection in the valley. 

 

55/33/20/0.10" 

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