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WxChallenge 2014-2015


Jurg

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50/28/40/0

 

Mixing heights and temperatures on the NAM and GFS both suggested 5-6C cooler than today for the high (59F or 15C), which gives a range of about 48-50 for the high. Given what looks like dry low levels and more sun than today along with a little downslope (granted they downslope better on a WSW wind like today than a WNW wind like tomorrow but still looks like a little) I took the warmer end of that range. Low was tough, with strong winds keeping them fairly well mixed tonight initially went with 29 which was the warmer end of MOS, but the wet-bulb to 35F scared me a little bit so I went to 28. We'll see how much upside there is for the winds tomorrow...it looks like WNW winds funnel a little bit which will help. Per climo today they already had 31 knots as of 21z and probably got a little bit stronger after...the pressure gradient is very strong tomorrow morning, and even during the afternoon BL average winds on the GFS get above 40 knots (lower on the NAM, but the GFS appeared to do better with winds today). With strong mixing and perhaps a little bit of funneling through the valley think 40 knots is possible if the low level winds are stronger like the GFS shows. I think winds are my biggest risk for day 1.

 

I was originally thinking your range on the winds, but two things swayed me away from it.

 

First of all, btangy's site suggests that, climatologically, wind verifications above 38kts are pretty rare. Secondly, and more importantly, I looked at several days in the past 5 years with strong westerlies in March. All the days had a much higher GFS MOS wind forecast than the NAM MOS wind forecast, like tomorrow, and actual wind verifications were actually LOWER than the highest GFS MOS in the cases where the winds were in the 40-60kt range. In a couple cases I found with similar wind forecasts to tomorrow, winds verified either one knot higher or lower than the highest GFS MOS wind forecast. So I liked 36-38 as a range.

 

That all being said, the potential is certainly there tomorrow for very strong (40kts+) winds.

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I was originally thinking your range on the winds, but two things swayed me away from it.

 

First of all, btangy's site suggests that, climatologically, wind verifications above 38kts are pretty rare. Secondly, and more importantly, I looked at several days in the past 5 years with strong westerlies in March. All the days had a much higher GFS MOS wind forecast than the NAM MOS wind forecast, like tomorrow, and actual wind verifications were actually LOWER than the highest GFS MOS in the cases where the winds were in the 40-60kt range. In a couple cases I found with similar wind forecasts to tomorrow, winds verified either one knot higher or lower than the highest GFS MOS wind forecast. So I liked 36-38 as a range.

 

That all being said, the potential is certainly there tomorrow for very strong (40kts+) winds.

I was definitely taken aback by the stochastic winds only being in a 30-34 knot range. The one plus for me is the strongest winds typically are westerly at LAR. I am a bit concerned that past days with similar forecasts have verified lower than the GFS, which would hurt me.

 

The one thing that swayed me up was the winds getting so strong today when they went W later in the afternoon and also the strong pressure gradient in the morning and strong mixing during the afternoon tomorrow.

 

I've been burned before by going different than what past history says is more likely so hopefully that doesn't happen tomorrow.

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46/29/37/0

 

I also had the feeling the GFS was overdoing the winds based on climo, but that only served to keep me out of the 40s. Went cold for the high tomorrow, but am second-guessing that since it looks like the extensive clouds/virga/drizzle should hold off until the evening. 

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I'm pretty annoyed with Wxchallenge right now. I was really busy last night after 7, so I made a forecast beforehand knowing I couldn't do it afterwards. So I made a preliminary forecast in the afternoon. At 630, I checked one last time and adjusted my low to 28 from the original 30 I had. Well, I check last night and it never went through. I didn't even get an email saying I changed it even though I know I submitted something different. This is the 2nd time in 2 years that's happened. I know I should check a little more thoroughly, but how about actually giving me what I forecast. Unreal. I need to hit everything else today to get off to a good start now.

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49/24/26/0

 

Me and my friend are currently in a battle to be top forecaster at UNCA and the yearly score are so close that all I have to do is to beat him by 0.5 point for this city to clinch top forecaster title. If we at least tied or he did better with this city, he get bragging rights over me. If the low stay at 25 for Day 2, I will have 4 points lead on him which is why I'm not gambling D3  or I would've gone 50-51 for high.

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