OHweather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 75/58/7/0.08" Tricky forecast due to questions over precip timing and also clearing tomorrow PM WRT high temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Extremely tricky forecast... not confident with any of my numbers except wind. 73/56/8/0.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 75/59/7/0.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 75/56/9/0.25. I'm riding the EURO/HRRR/12z USL combo for precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 73/57/9/0.00 Wasn't trying to be aggressive except for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Man I went way above consensus on wind... probably going to get burned but whatever 74/56/13/0.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 What an interesting low forecast especially after what had happened last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 76/48/8/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 76/49/7/0 I was debating between 76 and 77 for the high since it will be clear and sunny tomorrow but models wouldn't go above 74-75 so I went 76. Low was quite interesting, but I can see temperature dropping all the way down to few degrees above dewpoint with light wind. Most models think it'll be below 51 except for GFS (which seems to be too warm). I only went to 49 mainly because NWS still got 54 at the airport (50 in other areas of Phoenix however). No need to explain wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 79/46/7/0 We should find out how well PHX radiates tonight. The diurnal looking CU should clear pretty quickly and high clouds should stay away all night. Winds look very light or calm all night and dew points are sitting in the upper 40's...so I think they'll easily fall to 50 or a bit cooler. 46 may be pushing it but I don't think it's impossible. The airmass is about 2C warmer tomorrow and the GFS and NAM both suggest deeper mixing, so assuming the high clouds stay thin until later in the day I could see them getting 5F warmer than today's 74. But that's also a gamble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 79/46/7/0 We should find out how well PHX radiates tonight. The diurnal looking CU should clear pretty quickly and high clouds should stay away all night. Winds look very light or calm all night and dew points are sitting in the upper 40's...so I think they'll easily fall to 50 or a bit cooler. 46 may be pushing it but I don't think it's impossible. The airmass is about 2C warmer tomorrow and the GFS and NAM both suggest deeper mixing, so assuming the high clouds stay thin until later in the day I could see them getting 5F warmer than today's 74. But that's also a gamble The HRRR is projecting some high clouds tonight... .which is why I didn't drop too low with the low (actually agreed with the HRRR which makes sense). 78/51/8/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The HRRR is projecting some high clouds tonight... .which is why I didn't drop too low with the low (actually agreed with the HRRR which makes sense). 78/51/8/0.00 I saw the HRRR did move some high clouds through but then showed several hours of clearing later at night. The high clouds over Baja and into the mainland of Mexico right now appear to mainly stay just east of PHX in my opinion, which is why I went cooler than the HRRR which does show a few hours of high clouds. The 23z run appears to get them down to about 48F with some bouncing around late at night...will be interesting to watch play out. Edit: Now that I look at visible just before the sun set the high clouds do show up a bit better than on the IR. Might mean the HRRR's cloud forecast is better than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 What was the official precipitation? I'm not sure if it's 0.00, 0.01, or 0.08? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 What was the official precipitation? I'm not sure if it's 0.00, 0.01, or 0.08?Should be 0.01" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Should be 0.01" That's what I thought. Someone told me precip was 0.08", but I didn't think that was right. Turn out he was looking at the wrong airport in the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That's what I thought. Someone told me precip was 0.08", but I didn't think that was right. Turn out he was looking at the wrong airport in the city...I sort of wish the airport we were forecastin for got 0.08" as that was my precip forecast, but oh well haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I sort of wish the airport we were forecastin for got 0.08" as that was my precip forecast, but oh well haha I don't It's too bad our lows didn't work out well, but hopefully radiation cooling works out for us below 50 tonight. Recent HRRR on Papin's site is down to 46 at the very lowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I don't It's too bad our lows didn't work out well, but hopefully radiation cooling works out for us below 50 tonight. Recent HRRR on Papin's site is down to 46 at the very lowest. The HRRR is running too cold right now. Clouds have been persistent thus far unlike my thinking that they wouldn't earlier. It looks like they'll finally clear soon...we'll see. Not confident in 50 or cooler anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm back for the new year! 76/52/11/0 Model bias has been pretty consistent over the past few weeks. Makes me wonder if they aren't seeing the urban heat island or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm back for the new year! 76/52/11/0 Model bias has been pretty consistent over the past few weeks. Makes me wonder if they aren't seeing the urban heat island or something. The models generally seem warmer in the metro area, but maybe they're under-doing it? They had no problem with the low last night. But yeah I'm not optimistic for my 46 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Day one verification winds should be 9 knots... not 8. Anything to help me after my awful 13 knot forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Day one verification winds should be 9 knots... not 8. Anything to help me after my awful 13 knot forecast Still waiting on Norman to update their winds. As for the low, I really hoe PHX sneaked in 51 or it'll be another terrible low forecast for me. Really a frustrating city so far low-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Day one verification winds should be 9 knots... not 8. Anything to help me after my awful 13 knot forecast Well, you made up for it with last night's low forecast haha Outlying areas got into the mid to upper 40's, so I think the issue was underestimating the affect of the UHI on my part. The high clouds at times didn't help. At this point I just want to claw back to consensus by the end of next week and hope I don't waste my drop on the first city of the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 What the hell happened to USL over winter break? 22z runs are slow to come out last few days. At least it'll shake up things for PHX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 71/57/10/0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 74/55/11/0.04 Tricky forecast. Clouds will move into PHX overnight that should keep the low warmer than last night, but how warm? I wanted to go 56, but I don't want to risk getting burned again so I stuck with happy medium between NAM and GFS MOS at 55. Maybe not smart, but I'm not confident on my lows either. The high is even more interesting with clouds, although it's quite obvious GFS MOS is out to lunch. We do have a rather large spread on the high, but I decided to play it safe at 74 between NAM and 12z USL (where are ya, 22z USL?) especially with clouds, but it could be even cooler. As rainstorm move into KPHX tomorrow night, there could be some precipitation so I went with average amount from all outputs I know to play it safe at 0.04. Finally, winds will pick up as we get to 6z tomorrow and I think we can get 11 knots out of this station before Day 3 is over like USL is suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 78/54/14/0.02 Busted high on the temp today... if they could just mix a touch more tomorrow I think upper-70's are possible, although there will be more clouds too. I agree with some of the comments about the UHI for Phoenix and I might have been a little bit too cool on the low for tonight. Wind will also be tricky as its suppose to come with the arrival of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Went 76/57/15/0 Not a high confidence forecast due to clouds during the day potentially keeping the high in check (they'd hit 80 with full sun I'm sure) and also due to not having a clue on the first two lows. Went high on winds as low level winds appear to pick up nicely by evening. Precip will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Congrats to those who went high on the low and low on the high... and probably those that put a decent amount of precip. Basically the opposite of my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Congrats to those who went high on the low and low on the high... and probably those that put a decent amount of precip. Basically the opposite of my forecast. This is a tough city, that's for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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