WxBlue Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 6z start at 48. That was quite the jump from 5z. Lets see where it goes from here Got down to 43 before that jump. Oh so close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 And you care why? Cat 0 over here. Even if you get 2nd overall you still technically win first place at the city lmao My ego ...it'll be an interesting battle the next two days. It's better to win first place outright, and not just "technically". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Definitely threading to 71-74 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Tomorrow looks a bit more interesting with clouds and possibly some precip later in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Tomorrow looks a bit more interesting with clouds and possibly some precip later in the period.it looks convective. I usually go zero in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 it looks convective. I usually go zero in that case. I usually do too unless I expect a squall line or widespread coverage, but I'll have to think about it between now and 0z a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Despite whiffing the high and low pretty badly comparing to my competitors for Cat. 4 trophy, I'm still right there. If I get that 21 knots, I will be 2nd with 0.5 lead on 3rd and 1.0 behind first. Anything less will place me 3rd with 1.0-1.5 behind first depending on exact knot. Tough forecast tomorrow to figure out because every points tomorrow count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I am eagerly awaiting the climo. I'm guessing they hit 73, winds will be interesting. Highest sustained was 17 knots but with no gusts, highest gusts was 15 knots gusting to 25. I'm guessing 19-21 knots will be the wind. I'll be in first either way, but if it's 73 with a 21 knot wind it'll only be by 1.5 points. Edit: 72/47/20/0 I have 1.5 points to "play with" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I probably overthought that, but: 73/54/18/0 For the low, southerly winds should kick up around 6z as they've done most nights this week. Enough low level moisture for a deck of stratus appears to move in right around 6z too, and they may rise after 6z. But, they will really drop this evening for the next few hours, so the low again might end up a bit cooler before the clouds/winds stop the cooling, so I'm not extremely confident. Anyone who can catch me went 53-54 for the low, so that's not the big play. For the high, mixing doesn't look quite as high as today although they've mixed higher than expected every day this week. The airmass looks a couple of degrees warmer than today and they'll start warmer. There will be pretty dry air at the mid-levels through the afternoon, so I think if they can mix out the status during the morning that they can warm up about as much as they can...I might've gone a degree or two warmer if I expected more sun. There were a few people right behind me who went as low as 70, so the high is the key for me it appears. The chance for precip before 6z wasn't compelling enough for me to put any in, and most of the people behind me didn't put any, so I'm not worried about that. Winds I'm feeling decent about being within a knot of, and 17-19 knots was very common among the people behind me so I'm not worried about that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 73/53/18. Following RAP for low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 72/56/18/0 The only concerns I have for tomorrow are low and precip and I'm not too concerned about precip actually. The best chance for precip in west-central Texas looks to come after 6z tomorrow night in the early morning hours of Saturday once that 500 mb low treks near the southeastern NM area. I like the high to be within a dew degrees of my 72. They could pop higher due to everything OH mentioned before, but wasn't daring enough to push the mid 70's button. The low is the really tricky part. I can see the low doing exactly what happened last night with a lower temp in the low to mid 50's then popping up a few degrees around 6z. This city has been notorious for that so far, so I'm going to play out the trend. Looking to crack into the top 50 after one point being at 260 mid last week. Good luck guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 70/55/20/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 75/54/21/0 75 might be far-fetched, but someone had to do it, right? The southerlies look stronger than today so I had no problem going with a 20+ kt wind again as well. The low will definitely bounce up after 06Z, but I stuck with 54 anyway. Good luck to OHWeather, I hope your reasoning is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 After getting back to my room and looking at my competitors' forecasts, many of them went too cold on low (and maybe high). If I get 53-55 with 72+, I pretty much win KABI Cat. 4. There's lot of scenarios in which I finish 1st or 2nd for KABI so I'm very confident I'll get a trophy unless high, low, and winds ALL went lower than my forecast. Good luck to all, especially OHweather! EDIT: Okay, I'm not liking that 56 as of last obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Yea euro was around 46 so maybe I wish I looked at it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Yea euro was around 46 so maybe I wish I looked at it today. Ugh, I missed that somehow However, 73+ will cancel out if 50 or below is the case and I still get trophy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 72/51/19/0.07 Decided to take a gamble on precip. because why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Right on cue. 56 at 5z Ob. Good night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 75/54/21/0 75 might be far-fetched, but someone had to do it, right? The southerlies look stronger than today so I had no problem going with a 20+ kt wind again as well. The low will definitely bounce up after 06Z, but I stuck with 54 anyway. Good luck to OHWeather, I hope your reasoning is correct. After getting back to my room and looking at my competitors' forecasts, many of them went too cold on low (and maybe high). If I get 53-55 with 72+, I pretty much win KABI Cat. 4. There's lot of scenarios in which I finish 1st or 2nd for KABI so I'm very confident I'll get a trophy unless high, low, and winds ALL went lower than my forecast. Good luck to all, especially OHweather! EDIT: Okay, I'm not liking that 56 as of last obs. Thanks guys! I was sweating it until the temp jumped up to 56F, and still am. We'll see if it falls again as it doesn't look like low clouds have developed yet, although the dews did jump 5F this past hour, which seems to suggest they're not radiating particularly well at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Thanks guys! I was sweating it until the temp jumped up to 56F, and still am. We'll see if it falls again as it doesn't look like low clouds have developed yet, although the dews did jump 5F this past hour, which seems to suggest they're not radiating particularly well at this time. Yeah, I was getting nervous there because of possibility of 50-51 for 6z low before winds come in. If last night is of any indication, which is dropping 1-2 degrees at the least after the "jump", I like my chances for Cat. 4 overall trophy tomorrow since everybody but me went below 52. 53-55 is basically a sweet spot for me because someone went 56 with same high and winds as me. This mean he will pass me for first place no matter what with low of 56+, but I will still get trophy with second if that's the case. Hopefully we get that high of 73+ to ensure our prizes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 72/56/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 72/56/17/0 Glad to see I wasn't the only one. 72/56/18/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Looks like the temp did fall a degree so far for the low so it's working fairly well for the warmer low camp. Good luck to everyone fighting for a trophy today. I have a long day of traveling ahead, so I'll be popping in and out sporadically to check in. This has been a good city for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Here's a good link for fog and low clouds. http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/fog/ltstfog/LTSTFGDPSE.GIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Looks like the low will end up being 54. Need a wind of 17+ or a high of 71+ to seal first if I did my math right...both are reasonable but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Looks like the low will end up being 54. Need a wind of 17+ or a high of 71+ to seal first if I did my math right...both are reasonable but we'll see. Need 71 for 2nd trophy position and 72 for overall Cat. 4 win with winds of 18+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Scattered clouds and 60F now. Let's see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It's gonna be a long day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Looks like it might clear out for a little while. I'm cautiously optimistic about getting my 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Only one degrees increase since last obs? Man, I really hope clear skies will do the trick, although RAP/HRRR is making me nervous. EDIT: Worth noting WU stations around Abilene are up to 68-70 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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