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Ongoing Banter Thread


Carvers Gap

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We have gas heat but also a 1970's style wood burning fireplace in the downstairs den. It's nice to fire it up on special occasions. I buy freshly cut wood in the spring and it's usually cured enough to burn well by winter. It mostly gets used on camping trips but 8 or 10 times a season we'll burn some sticks to make the den cozy. I grew up with my folks relying exclusively on wood heat. It's a lot of work but if you're chilled to the bone it's the best way to warm up!

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Hey guys. I've been reading in the winter thread, but since I still don't understand what I'm reading most of the time, I don't post. I thought I'd say hi and try to change our mojo. Especially for the end of this coming week through February.

 

You guys taught me quite a bit last year and I had typed up all my notes and planned to study them in early fall. Someone (me) dumped a huge glass of tea right on my surge protector and blew out that computer. I've never backed up a computer in my life and always had a big IT Dept to do it for me at work, so all that is lost.

 

There hasn't been any weather for me to check the models you all had given me links to, so I'm lost again. But I want some snow!

 

I hope you all are well. I'm enjoying our basketball team, even though we didn't play so hot Saturday. I heard tonight that Donnie may weather this NCAA storm with just some suspensions, so that made me happy.

 

Let it snow! I wish I was in NYC (as long as I kept electricity). So for now, I'm going to watch it on TV and enjoy that. I'm crossing my fingers for the next few weeks!

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Hey guys. I've been reading in the winter thread, but since I still don't understand what I'm reading most of the time, I don't post. I thought I'd say hi and try to change our mojo. Especially for the end of this coming week through February.

 

You guys taught me quite a bit last year and I had typed up all my notes and planned to study them in early fall. Someone (me) dumped a huge glass of tea right on my surge protector and blew out that computer. I've never backed up a computer in my life and always had a big IT Dept to do it for me at work, so all that is lost.

 

There hasn't been any weather for me to check the models you all had given me links to, so I'm lost again. But I want some snow!

 

I hope you all are well. I'm enjoying our basketball team, even though we didn't play so hot Saturday. I heard tonight that Donnie may weather this NCAA storm with just some suspensions, so that made me happy.

 

Let it snow! I wish I was in NYC (as long as I kept electricity). So for now, I'm going to watch it on TV and enjoy that. I'm crossing my fingers for the next few weeks!

 

Good to see you Tabby. Like you I keep my head down and enjoy the disco between our more knowledgeable members...but I sure do appreciate their input. And like Greyhound mentioned in the pinned Fab Feb thread above, I sure do appreciate the fact that this subforum encourages debate and discussion in a friendly, respective manner. Wouldn't trade this group of folks for another on the forum!

 

Might rent them out if the price is right though.   :snowing:

 

edit: Forgot to mention that Coach DT is doing a great job with a team that has 9 scholarship players and was predicted pre-season to finish 13th in the SEC. These guys play hard and when they're on, they can give anyone a tough game. If he can weather the storm, I think CDT has an excellent future in Knoxville...even if he does look and sound a little like Edgar G. Robinson! 

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I know everyone expects this, but just to say they are trying to stay on top of it as best they can. I can tell you Wow's frustatration....every year we have an issue and try to learn from it and have fixes in place before the next big wave. And it always seems to be something new...At any rate, the nor'easter will be gone here soon and we will hopefully be okay for our potential storm.

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MRX SWS:

 

...A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO TUMBLE AS COLDER AIR MOVED INTO THEREGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEPSOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ORFLURRIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING.THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHERELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA LINE. HOWEVER...A DUSTING TO NEAR 1 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...MAINLYOVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND HIGHER ELEVATIONSOF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1/2 OF AN INCH OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE INA FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES OF EASTTENNESSEE...AS WELL AS CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTHCAROLINA.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FORFURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.
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I stole this from Kevin over at tennesseewx.  To say this Boston met is happy with the storm is a big understatement lol:

 

 

*/ HIGHLIGHTS... 
 
- CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD     
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!   
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING     
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES   
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND   
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION   

 
*/ OVERVIEW... 
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING   
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL   
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE   
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG   
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N   
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES   
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY 
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING 
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE 
PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST 
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF 
WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE 
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING 
BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY! 

 
KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND   
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN   
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR- 
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT 
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO 
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT 
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL 
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT 
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF 
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND 
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY 
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH 
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE. 
 
WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER   
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE   
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. 
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD 
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING 
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND 
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS.   
 
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO 
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE 
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT 
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS 
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT 
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING 
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER 
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.   
 
OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH 
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN 
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/ 
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS 
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND 
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. 
 
SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW   
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS   
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS   
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE   
NO MATTER IF YOU'RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS   
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON   
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW- 
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN   
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND   
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.   
 
*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE... 
 
CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS   
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD   
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY   
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW   
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W   
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS   
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE   
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE   
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH   
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.   
 
*/ BLIZZARD... 
 
TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE   
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL   
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW   
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN   
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /   
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL   
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED. 
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST. 
 
LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER   
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE   
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER   
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.   
 
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS   
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE   
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING   
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.   
 
*/ WINDS... 
 
STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH   
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT   
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN   
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN   
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE 
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR 
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD 
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED. 
 
SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN   
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE     
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS   
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.   
 
WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL   
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /   
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH   
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

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