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Coastal Storm September 25-26th.


IsentropicLift

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I haven't been a big fan of model rainfall forecasts over the last month or so.

We saw models place the heaviest rains over interior sections for the Islip

deluge up until 12z the day before. The Euro finally came on board at

0z before the event began. The Euro also had very heavy rains recently

for SNJ that never came to pass. So lets hope the models can show

some improvement with the forecast this time around.

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I haven't been a big fan of model rainfall forecasts over the last month or so.

We saw models place the heaviest rains over interior sections for the Islip

deluge up until 12z the day before. The Euro finally came on board at

0z before the event began. The Euro also had very heavy rains recently

for SNJ that never came to pass. So lets hope the models can show

some improvement with the forecast this time around.

this event has such weak synoptic forcing and baroclinicity
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this event has such weak synoptic forcing and baroclinicity

 

This has been my concern for days. But the models have been very consistent with a very heavy rainfall event somewhere along the MA coast and SNE. Being that we are near the climatological peak of hurricane season and this system will be sitting over water that is marginally suitable for tropical development, I have to believe this is going to have some VERY poorly defined tropical characteristics to it--it's the only real way (for me anyway)- to explain current model qpf output. If we view this more as a very WEAK tropical system, versus a Nor' Easter (mid Latitude cyclone), requiring baroclincity, things start to make quite a bit more sense...

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This has been my concern for days. But the models have been very consistent with a very heavy rainfall event somewhere along the MA coast and SNE. Being that we are near the climatological peak of hurricane season and this system will be sitting over water that is marginally suitable for tropical development, I have to believe this is going to have some VERY poorly defined tropical characteristics to it--it's the only real way (for me anyway)- to explain current model qpf output. If we view this more as a very WEAK tropical system, versus a Nor' Easter (mid Latitude cyclone), requiring baroclincity, things start to make quite a bit more sense...

if you look at the phase diagram of the most bullish gfs run (6z) it has the closest approach to tropical characteristics. though it rides the gray area on all runs

79.phase1.png

weaker 18z run:

83.phase1.png

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