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Coastal Storm September 25-26th.


IsentropicLift

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Thank goodness this wasn't a winter storm because there would have been a lot of people crying, including myself.

Precipitation shield is ragged and showery at best. Maybe it will improve later today but I'm betting on less than .5 inches of rain for the tristate area stations.

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Thank goodness this wasn't a winter storm because there would have been a lot of people crying, including myself.

Precipitation shield is ragged and showery at best. Maybe it will improve later today but I'm betting on less than .5 inches of rain for the tristate area stations.

 

We have seen this happen plenty of times during the winter with big high pressures to the north. At the least

the general model theme of heaviest rains over Southern NJ worked out. It's funny how the 12z Euro nailed

the heavy rains over Southern New Jersey yesterday but backed off 0z. But the Euro can stumble with these

weaker mesoscale type systems. It seems like the Euro's hiccups are with weaker systems and always 

nails the stronger larger scale ones. The GFS can pull a coup every now and then with weaker systems

like a Debby for example.

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The HRRR is very insistent on the radar filling back in within the next three hours. Perhaps that's why the SREF still shows significant rains tonight.

 

sref_namer_024_precip_p24.gif

 

Not happening, brah.  The writing has been on the wall for the majority of the day.  What a sheared out POS this turned out to be for these parts.  HRRR/SREF/NAM/4K NAM fail... convection to the east, deformation rains to the west, and we're stuck in the middle with relatively bright overcast and drizzle/light rain. 

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Since the upgrade it seems like the euro has not been what it use to be in the 72 hr range….perhaps its the pattern but several times it has been inconsistent with in that time range……OBV pattern forecasting and long range its the best…..but the so called king and its deadly range has not been remotely close to that the past year...

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