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Fall thread for the mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
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NASA is pulling the plug on the last of their weather instruments today in Western North Carolina. As you can see, all but the last 3 stations including the one on my mountain has already been shutoff . It was fun while it lasted. Sigh... http://wallops-prf.gsfc.nasa.gov/Field_Campaigns/IPHEx/Gauge/index.html

 

That just sounds stupid to me. I'd love to have your property just to put a weather station and webcam on it! :-)

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MikeGold

MikeGold

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That just sounds stupid to me. I'd love to have your property just to put a weather station and webcam on it! :-)

 

Well-the property is for sale. Make an offer and I will see what I can do for you! :)

 

This is where the instruments are being moved to: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~brodzik/html/olympex/

 

It is important that they setup the weather instruments in different types of geographical regions so they can properly calibrate the GPM satellite.

 

I think there still is some money left to keep the Smoky Mountain rainfall network in tact but my mountain top was never part of that network as it wasn't available when the network was first setup.  Unfortunately, none of the data from this network is available live as the data is recorded only on site and must be periodically manually removed.

 

Did a quick look back..since it went operational one year ago...collected about 77" of rain.

2013 saw about 110" of rain based on NASA observations and cocohrahs data and 2014 to now only about 53" although the colder months is when the majority of rain falls there due to common SW wind orographic events.

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MikeGold

MikeGold

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Bummer. So there must be power up there to run that station? Can you get a cell phone signal on the top? 

 

There is power to the property but it isn't turned on so the whole setup ran off solar and a large battery. Yes-there is cell service there and that is how the data got transmitted.  (They also surrounded it with an electric fence due to the local bears who had previously took a bite out of my rain gauge.) 

 

I have contemplated setting up a Davis weather station using this kind of setup: http://www.ambientweather.com/da66206322kit.html#caption

 

Has everything that is needed and automatically uploads to the Cloud so to speak and needs minimal maintenance. 

 

Another option is this guy: http://www.emiweather.com/weather.html

 

They have some stations setup locally and may be placing more on mountain ridges for flash flood predictions. 

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WxBlue

WxBlue

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From foliage pictures thread...

 

Interesting! I actually went around UNCA for a test run today, including shots of a nice sunset from new spot on campus. Sadly, my camera broke before I could load test pictures to my computer. Look like I'm going to have to use my mom's camera this weekend *sigh*

 

So, I went to camera shop and had them pull out test pictures from my old Canon and got these two good pictures. I'm happy knowing that the final picture of my Canon's 15 years career was a beautiful WNC sunset :)

 

 

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Met1985

Met1985

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It has been very windy today with temps dropping this evening with waves of showers coming in. Temp is down to 43 degrees. I would think that if we were later in the season this would be rain changing to snow showers but soon very soon. The next week it a virtual lock for below normal temps with multiple frost I believe.

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Iceagewhereartthou

Iceagewhereartthou

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Went to mount Mitchell summit yesterday. Beautiful day and ride! Really didn't see great color anywhere. Saw a couple pretty good isolated patches on the parkway, but overall, not much out there. Saw the whole progression from low elevation to past peak at higher elevation and pretty, but not your normal vibrant color. I'd give it a 5 out of 10. Seems like a lot of muted color, probably too much rain this year and not enough cool nights in Sept and Oct.

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Met1985

Met1985

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We have a frost advisory out for the extreme southwest mountains. It looks like we will be in the low to mid 30s tomorrow morning. Current temp is 47 degrees. We have some high cloud so that might impede temps from really dropping fast. I shall see at about 4 tomorrow morning. I still see below normal temps for next week.

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Hvward

Hvward

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Ok over my tantrum sorry if I offended anyone.  I enjoy this board too much to let a few ruin my fun.  Don't look now but the inconsistent GFS just day 10ed us with snow flurries in WNC.  Probably won't come to fruition but it is the first time a model has showed snowfall for most of WNC so I would bet on the high mountains getting flurries, if not more.  It seems the models are having a time with the potential for development in the gulf along with the remnants of former hurricane Ana and how it effects the US.  We will likely see widespread variability in the GFS over the next 5-7 days regarding flakes, and it hasn't showed on the Euro yet, but the GFS tends to have a better NWF signature compared to the Euro.  With the boring weather right now, at least we have a little something to follow over the next 10 days.

 

Surface temps look like they could be favorable especially above 3500' in wnc with a churning low off of Hatteras and a strong N/NW wind.

 

gfs_850_12h.gif

 

Backside precip looks marginal but it doesn't take much for the higher elevations to get flakes.  Also notice the strong high pressure over the great lakes funneling down the cold air.  Of course I know this is day 10 but it is noteworthy if it continues to persist.

 

gfs_pres_10d.gif

 

 

700mb winds also look to be +20kts which is necessary for efficient NWFS.  If we can get enough moisture to lag or somehow get a nice fetch or cloud cluster to move down from the great lakes I think the higher elevations will be in business for at least flurries if not a bit more.

 

gfs_700_10d.gif

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Met1985

Met1985

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HVward great to see you back! Just let it roll of and carry on my friend. What a beautiful fall day today! Had a high of 52 degrees with a  low of 38. Tonight is going to be cold. I would say most mountains areas could see the 20s tonight. Current temp has dipped down to 47 degrees. Yes seems like the models are having a hard time in the middle range on out.

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Hvward

Hvward

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HVward great to see you back! Just let it roll of and carry on my friend. What a beautiful fall day today! Had a high of 52 degrees with a low of 38. Tonight is going to be cold. I would say most mountains areas could see the 20s tonight. Current temp has dipped down to 47 degrees. Yes seems like the models are having a hard time in the middle range on out.

Thanks Met! Yeah it has been great weather up here ha I am tired of it (first world problems). I am ready to see my breath when I go outside and it looks like that is possible tonight lol. I am on my phone but it looks like the 18z GFS pulls any nwf threat but honestly with the way it moved the storm back 3 days...you can hardly take any solution it throws up seriously. Will have to check the euro and it's ensemble when I get home to see if any members are showing flakes but I doubt it will. Can you tell I am ready to see some snow?

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Met1985

Met1985

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Thanks Met! Yeah it has been great weather up here ha I am tired of it (first world problems). I am ready to see my breath when I go outside and it looks like that is possible tonight lol. I am on my phone but it looks like the 18z GFS pulls any nwf threat but honestly with the way it moved the storm back 3 days...you can hardly take any solution it throws up seriously. Will have to check the euro and it's ensemble when I get home to see if any members are showing flakes but I doubt it will. Can you tell I am ready to see some snow?

Lol I am ready also. All in due time. It looks like we may start out November on the warm side but I would not fret about it to much. I honestly cannot wait until December when things get rolling. Seems like all the chips are falling our way right know.

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Hvward

Hvward

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Lol I am ready also. All in due time. It looks like we may start out November on the warm side but I would not fret about it to much. I honestly cannot wait until December when things get rolling. Seems like all the chips are falling our way right know.

 

If we can get a winter comparable to that of 77'-78'(KAVL-21.8") or 09'-10'(KAVL-39.2") then we may crash the mountain winter thread ha.  On a serious note though 77'-78' had a positive PDO, weak El Nino, negative AO, and was added by a predominate -NAO.  09'-10' had a moderate EL Nino but that seems to be one of the only differences along with maybe a stronger -AO. Anologs say we will get a big one this year.  If only we could just go ahead and nail that down as fact ha.  I would love to say  "yep January 15th is the day, get your snow shovels ready and go to the store by the 12th.  Expect 15"-20" and higher totals in the high mountains" but on God has those forecast at hand lol.  What we do know is that the atmosphere is setting up in a very favorable pattern for a banner year, now lets see if it verifies!  Should be fun to track!  

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MikeGold

MikeGold

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Ha oh good then its back to its goofy self. The northern track looks to be the most plausible one consider the time of year. Thanks for the update though, been on the road and hadn't had a chance to check. Glad its resolved.

 

The Euro now shows intense cold for November 1. This solution looks like accumulating snows for the favored windward mountain tops and especially North into West Virginia.

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Hvward

Hvward

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The Euro now shows intense cold for November 1. This solution looks like accumulating snows for the favored windward mountain tops and especially North into West Virginia.

 

 

Wow Mike just saw that!  I guess we can't discount the GFS just yet.  Those type temps would be bone chilling.  The record low for KAVL on Nov. 1st is 22 degrees set in 1890 and for the 2nd its 20 degrees set in 1954.  I don't know if we will get quite that cold but it could be possible to get sub 25 temps with that NW wind.  If this were to verify I bet Mt. Mitchell, Le Conte, Roan ect. will see flakes maybe some accumulation.  Good catch Blue & Mike this should be fun to track and watch unfold!

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Met1985

Met1985

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We had a low this morning of 36 degrees with a light breeze with no frost but in the lower elevations they had temps right around 32 degrees and frost. Very interesting morning. Just got home to see the Euro... It drops the freaking hammer for the 1st of November but I do not buy it until we are inside 5 days. That would be record setting for sure. What a deep trough for November.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

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Boy, tonight was chilling to be outside!

 

Wow Mike just saw that!  I guess we can't discount the GFS just yet.  Those type temps would be bone chilling.  The record low for KAVL on Nov. 1st is 22 degrees set in 1890 and for the 2nd its 20 degrees set in 1954.  I don't know if we will get quite that cold but it could be possible to get sub 25 temps with that NW wind.  If this were to verify I bet Mt. Mitchell, Le Conte, Roan ect. will see flakes maybe some accumulation.  Good catch Blue & Mike this should be fun to track and watch unfold!

 

Yeah, I thought GFS was being crazy with 23-24 for KAVL, but then 12z Euro came in high-20s for us in Asheville right after my comment on GFS suffering from satellite data outrage.

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