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My Winter Outlook


WEATHER53

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Temperatures: Below average-well below average

Snowfall:Above average-well above average

 

Monthly Temps

Dec:-1

Jan:-5

Feb:-2

Overall:-2.5 to -3.5

 

Snowfall

DCA:25"

IAD/BWI:30-35"

 

 

 Analog years:1953(54),1955(56),1963,1976,1980,1981,1983,1984,2001.

 

 

I edited this about 30 minutes after posting.  I do not have a primary analog this year.  I do think the extreme cold air intrusions that the early 80's demonstrated is the sort of set up we will have.  Those shots were not winter long but when they hit it was -20 and colder departures.

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Temperatures: Below average-well below average

Snowfall:Above average-well above average

 

Monthly Temps

Dec:-1

Jan:-5

Feb:-2

Overall:-2.5 to -3.5

 

Snowfall

DCA:25"

IAD/BWI:30-35"

 

 

 Analog years:1953(54),1955(56),1963,1976,1980,1981,1983,1984,2001.

 

 

I edited this about 30 minutes after posting.  I do not have a primary analog this year.  I do think the extreme cold air intrusions that the early 80's demonstrated is the sort of set up we will have.  Those shots were not winter long but when they hit it was -20 and colder departures.

Seems bold on the temps. As for snowfall, your forecasting > 50% above normal. Sign me up for that! 

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I'd love to see these forecasts verify, but calling for a -5F month isn't just ballsy, it's suicidal.

 

The other thing I see is that DCA is 150% snowfall, but IAD / BWI is barely above normal.  Nothing against you guys in DC, but I sure hope there is a bigger spread between these airports than that.

 

Good luck, and I hope you're right; if you are, then you deserve some major props.

 

Edit:

 

And PG ups the ante by forecasting 200% snow on top of the -5F Jan.  Wow.  This is going to be some winter if either of you are right.

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I'd love to see these forecasts verify, but calling for a -5F month isn't just ballsy, it's suicidal.

 

The other thing I see is that DCA is 150% snowfall, but IAD / BWI is barely above normal.  Nothing against you guys in DC, but I sure hope there is a bigger spread between these airports than that.

 

Good luck, and I hope you're right; if you are, then you deserve some major props.

 

Edit:

 

And PG ups the ante by forecasting 200% snow on top of the -5F Jan.  Wow.  This is going to be some winter if either of you are right.

 

Believe.

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Seems like back to back blockbuster winters here are mostly unprecedented in modern times. However, no scientific reasoning as to why this is the case, but I can appreciate why so many see a reason to remain bullish for the coming season, if only for persistence. Good luck with your outlook, I hope it verifies.

For DCA, 86-87 and 87-88 was the last time. But 87-88 had a freak 11.5" Vet day storm. Dec & Feb sucked terribly but Jan produced 13".

77-83 only had 1 dog (80-81). Incredible stretch those seasons. Very fond memories and probably the period that most influenced my affliction to become a snow weenie.

I think we stand a decent chance at back to back climo+ because last year was a bonus check. This upcoming season seems to want to have a more classic chance at good snow. It would be a kick in the teeth (and funny at the same time) to have a weak/mod nino and favorable npac but crap the bed.

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In keeping with the idea of an out-of-season event, four of Tenman's analog years had accumulating November snowfalls in this area. Nov 6-7, 1953 is one of the great early season events, along with snows in nov '55, '76, and '81. None of those doomed the winter.

1980 had the 10-10-79 storm for western VA up thru Philadelphia too.

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