Snow_Miser Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 According to that chart Phil posted, looks like Odile was considerably stronger than the NHC thought, at least pressure wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 According to that chart Phil posted, looks like Odile was considerably stronger than the NHC thought, at least pressure wise. Tropicalanalyst13 post from earlier showed the pressure down to 922mb, but peak sfmr surface wind is only 99kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 14, 2014 Author Share Posted September 14, 2014 Tropicalanalyst13 post from earlier showed the pressure down to 922mb, but peak sfmr surface wind is only 97kt. Which is probably attributable to the textbook eyewall replacement cycle currently underway. I'll caution that recon has only made a SE-NW pass so far, and not a SW-NE pass which may offer higher winds. Latest visible: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Some climo to consider: From Josh, major H hits on west coast of Mexico since 1949: 1957 No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt) 1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (140 kt) 1967 Olivia (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt) 1975 Olivia (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt) 1976 Liza (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (~100 kt) 1976 Madeline (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt) 1983 Tico (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt) 1989 Kiko (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt) 2002 Kenna (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt) 2006 Lane (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (954 mb/110 kt) From this list, hit dates were as follows: 8/27, 9/16, 10/1, 10/8, 10/14, 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, 10/27. So, we're a bit earlier than the prime month of Oct. However, the fact that the earliest hit Baja and the 2nd earliest was during an oncoming weak El Nino should be noted. The real strongest (cat. 4-5) have hit mainly in late Oct.: 10/8, 10/22, 10/25, 10/27 Oncoming weak to moderate El Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits (Liza, Madeline, Kenna, and Lane). I believe with high confidence that we're in an oncoming weak to moderate El Nino. 1957's #10 hit during an oncoming strong El Nino. Also worth nothing the super El Ninos (97 and 82) had two 95 knt landfall both which could have been 100 knts. I personally am not a fan of basing landfall intensity on climo, since the difference between 90 and 100 knts is small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Which is probably attributable to the textbook eyewall replacement cycle currently underway. I'll caution that recon has only made a SE-NW pass so far, and not a SW-NE pass which may offer higher winds. Latest visible: Yeah it does look like that. Corrected my post it was 99kt. Bigger eye means better chance for Josh to get in the eyewall since it is forecasted to come close to cabo and landfall on Isla Santa Margarita. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 This is one heck of a storm. What an incredible season for the EPAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Conditions already going downhill in Cabo, live video feed at bottom of page: http://www.allaboutcabo.com/gallery/web-cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Of course transmission of HD obs were interrupted as the plane was beginning its SW NE pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Could this offer any drought relief to CA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Could this offer any drought relief to CA? It might be hard with the trough coming down, but Arizona will probably see more flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 It looks like pressures are falling with this pass. Also regarding the inland Flood potential, a Day 3 Slight Risk for excessive rainfall has been issued for Southern Arizona and will likely be shifted further E into Southern New Mexico and W Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 14, 2014 Author Share Posted September 14, 2014 134kt flight-level winds in the northeastern portion of the outermost eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC) Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 20:10Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300) Storm Number & Year: 15E in 2014 Storm Name: Odile (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 14 A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 19:51:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°56'N 108°43'W (20.9333N 108.7167W) B. Center Fix Location: 153 miles (247 km) to the SSE (151°) from Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, México. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,447m (8,028ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 331° at 93kts (From the NNW at ~ 107.0mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 923mb (27.26 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open in the northeast M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye) M. Inner Eye Diameter: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) M. Outer Eye Diameter: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 134kts (~ 154.2mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NE (39°) from the flight level center at 19:58:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WINDS 140 / 16 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Is the Cabo San Lucas radar operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Adv out. 110 knts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 BTW, Josh just landed per his facebook. He got his last possible flight into Cabo before the airport shuts down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 It looks like NHC puts it even close to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Based on NHC track, Todos Santos seems like best place to ride this out. But if the N motion continues, then IMO it should be Cabo for Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Is the Cabo San Lucas radar operational? Yes, The mexico site is very slow right now, I asked Brian McNoldy to set up his repeater GIF. Here is a screenshot of an image that took me 7 minutes to download ( issues not on my end of the internet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 I hope Josh has a good chase. I can just imagine how awesome the waves crashing on the rock formations at the tip of Cabo must look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 I hope Josh has a good chase. I can just imagine how awesome the waves crashing on the rock formations at the tip of Cabo must look Enjoy http://www.cabovillas.com/properties.asp?PID=219#cam http://www.cabovillas.com/properties.asp?PID=199#cam http://www.cabovillas.com/properties.asp?PID=340&source=CSLnet#cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 NHC has just issued an update statement, but all I got was nothing on the web site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmanwx Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Josh probably knows this, but the radome in Cabo San Lucas has a great chase location on a hill with commanding views of the ocean and marina. The automated weather station there also got excellent wind exposure during Norbert. Hilltop chasing may offer its own perils, particularly flash flooding and related mudslides, high winds, and social isolation, but at least it avoids storm surge and likely results in great video. You can check it out on Google maps; the automated weather station is here: 22°52'52"N 109°55'36"W An $1100/night super-luxury resort operates on this hilltop, but I'm sure you can find something more affordable nearby. Wind is already 38G52KT at 20:00 UTC, so the tropical storm has begun at the hills of Cabo San Lucas. PS: Bing offers far better aerial imagery than Google does in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 NHC has just issued an update statement, but all I got was nothing on the web site. HURRICANE ODILE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 345 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 The trend seems to be to the right of the forecast track and it looks like it should hit cabo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Josh probably knows this, but the radome in Cabo San Lucas has a great chase location on a hill with commanding views of the ocean and marina. The automated weather station there also got excellent wind exposure during Norbert. Hilltop chasing may offer its own perils, particularly flash flooding and related mudslides, high winds, and social isolation, but at least it avoids storm surge and likely results in great video. You can check it out on Google maps; the automated weather station is here: 22°52'52"N 109°55'36"W An $1100/night super-luxury resort operates on this hilltop, but I'm sure you can find something more affordable nearby. Wind is already 38G52KT at 20:00 UTC, so the tropical storm has begun at the hills of Cabo San Lucas. PS: Bing offers far better aerial imagery than Google does in this area. Josh according to his facebook has a hotel already FYI. It's near Cabo I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Cabo is definitely going to get rocked for a while. Even if the inner eyewall wobbles back to the west, the outter eyewall is going to rake the larger Cabo area. Josh should get some great footage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Just saw a tweet from Mike Lowry via Jim Cantore that Odile has a well formed double eyewall right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Just saw a tweet from Mike Lowry via Jim Cantore that Odile has a well formed double eyewall right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Josh is live on the Weather Channel right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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