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September 2014 Obs and Discussion


T. August

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Warm start, but maybe a cool shot during the second week? I'm basing this off of the CFSv2 and GFS, so probably not going to happen.

It looks close on the means but hard to say until we get closer. Looks like a pretty good boundary setting up with good temp gradient and good orientation for some wet and potentially stormy weather for someone. Pretty far out there to overthink though.

The lower heights remain centered further west than they have most of summer so any anomalous cool shot would be short lived unless the lw pattern shifts a good bit.

Euro weeklies have been showing an above normal temp regime overall for most of September. Average highs will be in the 70's in a couple weeks so warm isn't really that warm either way.

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It looks close on the means but hard to say until we get closer. Looks like a pretty good boundary setting up with good temp gradient and good orientation for some wet and potentially stormy weather for someone. Pretty far out there to overthink though.

The lower heights remain centered further west than they have most of summer so any anomalous cool shot would be short lived unless the lw pattern shifts a good bit.

Euro weeklies have been showing an above normal temp regime overall for most of September. Average highs will be in the 70's in a couple weeks so warm isn't really that warm either way.

Always enjoy your posts, Bob.

 

83/77

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Just came back from a walk with the gf. All I can say is thank goodness this pattern didn't visit us in mid-July, or we'd be 100/80 right now

Also took pics of the storm damage from yesterday. A lot of big limbs down, but it seems trees have been darwinized for the most part as the damage was less this go around despite the stronger winds this go around

Currently 85/78

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Finally a decent shower in the area, visibility under a mile.

 

This almost looks like the short sharp shower coming back down I-70 about noon.

 

Ok, how did it follow me? :lmao:

 

Seriously, I'm glad of the fail.  I have a tree developing widowmakers, time to get tree company estimates before another derecho.

 

Edit: back to blue sky and a squirrel on the neighbor's roof looking for windfall.

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Has anyone had to drive on River Road just past Western Ave on the MD side? They've got these giant steel plates all over the road and when you couple that with rainfall it's asking for trouble.

I end up fishtailing trying to avoid the dude in front of me who's doing the same thing...end up hitting the curb and blowing a hydraulic pipe or something because now my steering is all fooked up. What a terrible setup.

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some small and isolated but apparently heavy showers have erupted across the area, mainly on the north side of DC.   thought for sure that we were done for the day - not sure what the trigger is.

 

and the 00z is now much faster with the progression of the front Tuesday and brings a squall line through here in the early evening hours (shows up nicely on the 4 km nest).   This is a change from previous runs which had a dying line arriving several hours later.

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