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The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread


jburns

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Probably a good thing we didn't throw 5-6 inches in the fcst grids like you wanted, eh?

True! I didn't want y'all to say it, I just wanted it to happen! I still don't understand how the models show ridiculous amounts over and over again two days out and be down to a quarter inch or less , come verification time. Happened all summer long!
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True! I didn't want y'all to say it, I just wanted it to happen! I still don't understand how the models show ridiculous amounts over and over again two days out and be down to a quarter inch or less , come verification time. Happened all summer long!

 

The models are always wrong...especially with any type of convection involved. The interaction between the small scale forcings, mass fields, instability, advections, etc are always evolving and interacting differently through time. The models cannot explicitly perform all these calculations on the scales they happen. The models, therefore, parameterize many convective processes, which basically means they use proxies or assumptions for various processes they do see on the larger scale. Of course, when you run models out through time, you also introduce inherent non-linear errors into the output due to the differential equations used.      

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This forecast has a high bust potential tomorrow. While showers and storms are likely across the I-85 corridor and southward through Georgia and South Carolina, the question remains how strong the forcing will be north and if the storms rob moisture from surging northward. I can see a good portion of North Carolina getting robbed from this type of system. I am still forecasting around a quarter of an inch in the mountains, foothills and piedmont of North Carolina; however, I can see this area getting very little rain from this system.

 

On the other side of the coin, some areas through Georgia and South Carolina picking up a good inch of rain from this storm system. Higher totals will also be possible depending on convection in this area.

 

Looks like we get into a quiet pattern behind this system through Thursday. Average temperatures through most of the period with mostly sunny skies. The front that approaches Friday may not have much fanfare with it as the best forcing is racing northward before reaching the southeast. Behind the front, models are indicating a cool airmass moving into the southeast for the weekend.

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CPC is showing possibly the first BIG cool down for the central part of the country for the second week of October.  EPO goes sharply negative and allows cold air to funnel in east of the Rockies.  Long range models have been showing the first big snow for the Northern Plains.  This coincides quite well with those forecasts.  

 

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^ I love rain. It's awesome...especially heavy rain.

No, it is miserable, you can't do anything outside, and people drive like even more idiots when it rains. At least snow here is something different and exciting, and you can use it to stay home and have fun in it. I actually think driving in rain sometimes can be just as dangerous as driving in snow, but my office has never closed for rain.

Good thing is it looks like the rain will only be around for Monday, unless of course the forecast is wrong again, which it has been a lot with regards to rain around here since the summer.

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WPC 5 day QPF shows us with maybe .25" from now through Friday. What a joke this system turned out to be. Atlanta has 0.66" for September and they may finish with under an inch.

Not as impressive as us having only 0.23 in July which is our wettest month.

WPC has us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. No flood watches because NWS Jacksonville says it's been dry lately even though we are over 10 inches of rain for the month and everyone to the west is in a flood watch.

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Not as impressive as us having only 0.23 in July which is our wettest month.

WPC has us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. No flood watches because NWS Jacksonville says it's been dry lately even though we are over 10 inches of rain for the month and everyone to the west is in a flood watch.

Well, September is typically a very dry month in Atlanta, but not THIS dry. October is actually the driest month on average, so I guess we better get used to these dry conditions. 

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The 0z GFS shows next weekend with low temps in the 40s from NE Al, N GA, N SC, and most of NC. We've seen this depicting before to only trend warmer and wetter as we get closer. Hopefully it will be true this time and we'll see that first true "crisp" day of fall.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=09&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=00&fhour=156&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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No it's not a separate PIL. It's the first section in the AFD. It's updated every 3 hrs or sooner if conditions warrant. 

 

Perfect.  That is what I thought.

 

The reason I ask is for those of us that run the Weatherstar 4000 Simulator, the Nowcasts are no longer showing up as they were being retrieved by the NOW product.

 

Thanks again.

 

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I wish there was a little more consistency between regions in terms of what is issued and displayed. It appears the Eastern Region does things a little differently than the other regions. 

 

There are some offices in the southern region that are discontinuing the HWO's, Tallahassee is one of those. 

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No it's not a separate PIL. It's the first section in the AFD. It's updated every 3 hrs or sooner if conditions warrant. 

 

Perfect.  That is what I thought.

 

The reason I ask is for those of us that run the Weatherstar 4000 Simulator, the Nowcasts are no longer showing up as they were being retrieved by the NOW product.

 

Thanks again.

 

 

 

I wish they never got rid of it. It was usually handled by the HMT desk, now it's part of the aviation desk's duties, which is normally quite busy on it's own. 

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I wish there was a little more consistency between regions in terms of what is issued and displayed. It appears the Eastern Region does things a little differently than the other regions. 

 

There are some offices in the southern region that are discontinuing the HWO's, Tallahassee is one of those. 

 

The HWO isn't going away here, but we are discontinuing it's display on the WWA map. 

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No, it is miserable, you can't do anything outside, and people drive like even more idiots when it rains. At least snow here is something different and exciting, and you can use it to stay home and have fun in it. I actually think driving in rain sometimes can be just as dangerous as driving in snow, but my office has never closed for rain.

Good thing is it looks like the rain will only be around for Monday, unless of course the forecast is wrong again, which it has been a lot with regards to rain around here since the summer.

 

Yes, rain is good.  It makes things grow and allows us to have water to drink.  There are far more days where it doesn't rain than days where it does, so the point about being outside is weak.  If you pay good attention when you drive, you should be ok.  Yeah, some knucklehead can still hit you, but as long as you're doing your job, you're probably going to be fine.  And, you're correct, work usually doesn't close for rain...or for clouds or wind or fog or sun dogs.  They need you to come in and get the job done.  Besides, since it's raining, you don't have anything outside to do anyway, so you might as well go to work and make some money.

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I wish there was a little more consistency between regions in terms of what is issued and displayed. It appears the Eastern Region does things a little differently than the other regions. 

 

There are some offices in the southern region that are discontinuing the HWO's, Tallahassee is one of those. 

Georgia is in the Southern Region right ?

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