IWXwx Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 I decided to start this thread to keep the general discussion thread, well, general. Looks like a couple of systems in store to keep upcoming holiday outdoor plans questionable. Friday through Sunday looks like more of a heavy rain threat with high precipitable water values and slow moving/training rains. Sunday looks good for severe in the extreme western part of the subforum with a chance Monday across most of the rest of the area (if crapvection doesn't screw it up) with pretty good shear and CAPE progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Up to 6.27" on the month only 2.49" from our all time record for any month at Detroit. 8.76" fell July of 1876, as for August records 8.33" fell in August of 1926. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 30, 2014 Author Share Posted August 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 30, 2014 Author Share Posted August 30, 2014 Non-zero chance for spinups in MI this afternoon/evening: SPC finally decided that Monday looks good enough for a slight: My main concern is local flooding with precipitable water in the 99 percentile range throughout the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 MPX went as far as to say that Sunday's setup looks as good as any this entire year for severe wx. We'll see. Should be some good SB CAPE to work with by late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Non-zero chance for spinups in MI this afternoon/evening: day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif SPC finally decided that Monday looks good enough for a slight: day3prob_0730.gif My main concern is local flooding with precipitable water in the 99 percentile range throughout the region. The flooding concern will really be high later next week, with another ROF setup developing... And it looks to be the same areas already hit hard this season impacted (Chicago / Detroit / Indiana). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Well models continue to slow down the cold front just enough to make things interesting around here. Cloud cover and instability always a concern with these setups, but with the strength of the mid/upper level shear, perhaps we can offset that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 For today, much of Lower MI has been upgraded to a Slight Risk for severe weather by the SPC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Also, it looks as though the models are now stalling the front out along I-69/I-96 tomorrow, so a threat for additional convection will likely exist... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1638NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA...NERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 301745Z - 302015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. AND...WITH THE TRANSLUCENT NATURE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE PERMITTING PARTIAL INSOLATION...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 1000-1500 J/KG DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 7-KM CAPPI RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IS INCREASING ON AN ISOLATED BASIS IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC PERTURBATION CROSSING ERN WI INTO LAKE MI PER MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY. CONTINUED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH MODESTLY INCREASING DCVA MAY CONTINUE TO BREED AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS LOWER MI...WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MORE ROBUST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. HOWEVER...A CONFLUENCE AXIS TRAILING S OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OVER NRN LAKE MI COULD ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO NRN INDIANA WHERE SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEPER. THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS SUPPORT ONE OR TWO TRANSIENT/MARGINAL SUPERCELLS. DMGG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SVR RISK...WITH 25-40-KT SWLYS IN THE 1-3-KM LAYER AS SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS AND THE 18Z DETROIT RAOB BOLSTERING CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A WEAK TORNADO...CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MORE SUSTAINED... DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WITH REGARDS TO THE COVERAGE OF THE SVR RISK...WITHOUT STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE TO THE UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..COHEN/HART.. 08/30/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 30, 2014 Author Share Posted August 30, 2014 I was just looking at the short range models and they line up with SPC's discussion area. Storms may not get in Detroit until after dark. They are showing initiation from just northwest of LAF up through MI along the lake. It looks like a South Bend to Battle Creek to Lansing line may be jackpot for any severe today. Meanwhile, LAF and FWA get fringed, with storms to the north and others well south. Looks like I'll have wait for some possible heavy rain late overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 I was just looking at the short range models and they line up with SPC's discussion area. Storms may not get in Detroit until after dark. They are showing initiation from just northwest of LAF up through MI along the lake. It looks like a South Bend to Battle Creek to Lansing line may be jackpot for any severe today. Meanwhile, LAF and FWA get fringed, with storms to the north and others well south. Looks like I'll have wait for some possible heavy rain late overnight. That all seems about right. Cloud debris is still taking its sweet time to diminish (limiting daytime heating somewhat), but that may not matter much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Tornado Warning in Northern Lower MI: TORNADO WARNINGMIC135-302000-/O.NEW.KAPX.TO.W.0005.140830T1919Z-140830T2000Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI319 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...OSCODA COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...* UNTIL 400 PM EDT* AT 316 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ATORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LUZERNE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUTSHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGETO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE ISLIKELY.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...MIO...LUZERNE...RED OAK...FAIRVIEW AND COMINS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ASTURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OROUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.&&LAT...LON 4451 8437 4454 8437 4469 8437 4486 84014486 8389 4467 8389TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 243DEG 29KT 4461 8430TORNADO...RADAR INDICATEDHAIL...1.00IN$JZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 The awful mid-level lapse rates are really taking a toll on what otherwise isn't that bad of a severe weather setup. This is evident by the lack of lightning with the activity that has struggled to develop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 New Tornado Warning for Northern Lower MI: TORNADO WARNINGMIC001-007-135-302045-/O.NEW.KAPX.TO.W.0006.140830T1956Z-140830T2045Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI356 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...NORTHWESTERN ALCONA COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...SOUTHWESTERN ALPENA COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEASTERN OSCODA COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...* UNTIL 445 PM EDT* AT 353 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ATORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FAIRVIEW...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUTSHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGETO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE ISLIKELY.* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...OSSINEKE TOWNSHIP AROUND 435 PM EDT.THE TOWN OF HUBBARD LAKE AROUND 445 PM EDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MITCHELL TOWNSHIP.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ASTURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OROUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.&&LAT...LON 4465 8411 4474 8417 4486 8394 4486 83894489 8388 4501 8365 4479 8352TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 240DEG 24KT 4474 8403TORNADO...RADAR INDICATEDHAIL...<.75IN$JZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Just looking at the velocity and cc you can see that there was a tornado on the ground with this storm, with debris. I am a bit concerned because on the north side of Mio Pond is a county campground and the tornado tracked very close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 The line is finally starting to organize (the storms in IN look more impressive on radar and have shown a marked increase in lightning). May still be too little too late for a more widespread severe weather threat though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 31, 2014 Author Share Posted August 31, 2014 Remind me to not start a thread this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 913 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014 ILC053-075-310700- /O.COR.KLOT.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-140831T0700Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ IROQUOIS IL-FORD IL- 913 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL FORD AND CENTRAL IROQUOIS COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT... AT 913 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE VERY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE HARDEST HIT AREAS OF FORD AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND AFFECT THESE AREAS AGAIN...WHICH WOULD ONLY WORSEN THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT LOCALLY OVER 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 4 PM FROM ROBERTS TO THAWVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF ONARGA. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORT FLOODING ON HIGHWAY 54 BETWEEN ROBERTS AND THAWVILLE...AND ON HIGHWAY 45 SOUTH OF ONARGA. STREAMS PARTICULARLY AT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RAPID RISES INCLUDE THE MACKINAW RIVER NEAR AND WEST OF SIBLEY...BIG FOUR DITCH...LITTLE MUD CREEK...SPRING CREEK IN IROQUOIS COUNTY AND TRIBUTARIES FEEDING INTO SPRING CREEK BETWEEN ROBERTS ONARGA. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON INTERSTATE 57 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 271 AND 281 AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 On Labor Day, there could be some severe weather. The CAPE/shear combination looks favorable from Wichita to Chicago to Green Bay, with some 50 kt shear vectors in Iowa. Storm-relative helicities won't be too high though. Maybe 20+ severe reports scattered around that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Deluge at my place on the southeast side of LAF right now. No L&T, but heavy heavy rain. Airport/westside high and dry, for the time being... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 monday looks like a punt IMBY, early morning complex well west and the afternoon action will be well south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 We have an outside shot at popcorn convection today, as the front stalls overhead. Did eventually get some rain last night, but not thunder/lightning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 monday looks like a punt IMBY, early morning complex well west and the afternoon action will be well south SPC doesn't think so yet, it seems there will be enough instability and dynamics to perhaps overcome some cloud debris and complexes nearby assuming the front slows down enough that it comes through during the afternoon or early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 SPC doesn't think so yet, it seems there will be enough instability and dynamics to perhaps overcome some cloud debris and complexes nearby assuming the front slows down enough that it comes through during the afternoon or early evening. this is a non-event north of I80 and east of Madison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Ideally, the 12z NAM solution will be close to what actually happens tomorrow (similar to Aug 25-26)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 SPC doesn't think so yet, it seems there will be enough instability and dynamics to perhaps overcome some cloud debris and complexes nearby assuming the front slows down enough that it comes through during the afternoon or early evening. I tend to agree with you. I wouldn't write off areas farther north yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 I tend to agree with you. I wouldn't write off areas farther north yet. Yeah considering the Wisconsin's location compared to the location of the low you can't write off storms and severe weather for Wisconsin and Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 model agreement on a large well defined outflow cutting SE across central IL is a classic punt signal north of I80…a lock, no but it's the right call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Latest SPC day 2 outlook has been expanded NE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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