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September 2014


Rtd208

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Looks like very warm pattern next week. 500mb heights and 850mb temps support 90F+ next week. But disturbances on top of the ridge, clouds, onshore flow or sea-breezes might keep high temps in the 80s, for at least some areas.

12Z runs are now quicker with troughs into the region vs previous runs.

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Yeah absolute inferno on the 12z ECMWF. If correct many locations will be catching up on their lack of 90F days. Suggests high temps of 87-90F+ every day from Sunday the 31st through Saturday the 6th, with potential for mid 90s Fri/Sat of next week as heights reach 588dm. As said a very impressive pattern for early September warmth.

 

 

Sunday the 31st:

 

2cqkz0m.png

 

 

Wednesday the 3rd:

 

33bpd3a.png

 

 

 

Friday the 5th:

 

9va7go.png

 

 

Saturday the 6th:

 

 

2qd9103.png

 

 

 

Temp departures should be enormous by September 10th.

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I was 13 living in dyker heights when that 2nd week of december 2 day storm hit. ( 17.5 for 112)

great winter.

I'm a year older than you. The memory of very heavy snow, gale force winds, temps hovering near 10 at my home in Teaneck warms my heart these nearly 54 years later.

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if it only lasted a little longer but that's being selfish...There were record snow depths in Brooklyn after the 2/4/61 storm...

That Friday night at the height of the storm was one of those rare times that you could see the accumulation as the flakes were pounding down. Wonderful storm but the end of winter thereafter.

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That Friday night at the height of the storm was one of those rare times that you could see the accumulation as the flakes were pounding down. Wonderful storm but the end of winter thereafter.

That's what it was like during January 26th 2011. You could literally see the snow pile up before your eyes. Same thing with the Valentine's Day storm just this last winter. Awesome stuff.

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That's what it was like during January 26th 2011. You could literally see the snow pile up before your eyes. Same thing with the Valentine's Day storm just this last winter. Awesome stuff.

Yup...both of those were awesome. Also during the mega band across LI during the blizzard in Dec 2009. I'm sure north shore folks will say this about Feb 2013, Hudson Valley folks during one of the Feb 2010 storms (I always mix up the 2..I'm not counting the virga fest early in the month) and NENJ will say this about the boxing day blizzard.

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  1961 is the warmest September on record...We got hit with a tropical wave and just missed getting hit with hurricane Esther that month...I was 12 in 61 and the winter of 60-61 gave way to Mantle and Maris for the Summer...We got a snowstorm on Christmas Eve 61 that was a smaller version of the February 4th storm...1961-62 had 1/3 the snowfall that 1960-61 had...I remember waking up one morning and putting on the radio and heard a heavy snow warning for the day...I looked out the window and the Sun was coming out...Even the Ash Wednesday storm in March 62 missed us to the south...

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What's the wind direction during this period?

The map probably oversmooths the temps, but looks like southerly every day except maybe Wednesday. I'm not optimistic for much heat for the southeast half of the city and Long Island through this stretch, maybe for you could be a different story. It's a classic pattern where EWR can make it to 95 easily but JFK struggles to get past 83-84. So for many on the forum near the coast, looks like a fairly average late August regime. 

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The latest Euro and ensembles are hinting that the core of the heat will track just to our

south next week instead of passing right over the region. So my guess is that we

won't see maximum temperatures across the metro as high as we saw last

September 11th when the core of the 20C+ at 850 went right over us. But maybe

Newark can get within a few degrees.

 

attachicon.gifget_legacy_plot-web248-20140829091304-4168-1447.gif

 

attachicon.gifget_legacy_plot-web248-20140829091346-4165-1405.gif

 

attachicon.gif13091112.gif

Pretty dramatic shift on the 06z GFS from a ridge pattern to split flow. A few days in the 10-14 day range with highs <75F and then the polar vortex attempts to make an early visit. We will have to see if future runs continue that theme. The 00z GFS had a pronounced eastern ridge during the same period.

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