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September 2014


Rtd208

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The ridge has been once again muted and shunted SW on the 12z GFS keeping the big heat confined to our southwest. The general theme all summer has been for east coast troughing and I see no reason to bet against it winning out.

What days are you referring to?

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Yup...both of those were awesome. Also during the mega band across LI during the blizzard in Dec 2009. I'm sure north shore folks will say this about Feb 2013, Hudson Valley folks during one of the Feb 2010 storms (I always mix up the 2..I'm not counting the virga fest early in the month) and NENJ will say this about the boxing day blizzard.

 

Feb 25-26 aka The Snowicane..  28-36" widespread in Orange County. 

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Yup...both of those were awesome. Also during the mega band across LI during the blizzard in Dec 2009. I'm sure north shore folks will say this about Feb 2013, Hudson Valley folks during one of the Feb 2010 storms (I always mix up the 2..I'm not counting the virga fest early in the month) and NENJ will say this about the boxing day blizzard.

I got 12 inches from December 2009. Feb 2010 featured 40 inches of snow here for the month. Awesome month.

 

Feb 25-26 aka The Snowicane..  28-36" widespread in Orange County. 

18 inches here

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Tuesday looks potentially 90-95 for inland areas. 0z Euro ENS shows 850mb temps 18C+ with S-SW flow up to Central NY and Central New England. The Euro op has 850mb 20C+ on Tuesday night. Convection with the cold front is delayed until mostly Tuesday evening. 0z GFS MEX also shows lower 90s for much of NJ:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=K12N&sta=KACY&sta=KBLM&sta=KCDW&sta=KWRI&sta=KMIV&sta=KMMU&sta=KVAY&sta=KEWR&sta=KSMQ&sta=KFWN&sta=KTEB&sta=KTTN&sta=KWWD

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The 0z Euro ENS has another heat surge ahead of stronger cold front at the end of this week. Could see some severe wx potential again by the weekend. Behind that front temperatures are closer to average going into second week of September for the Northeastern US. Only seeing out day 10 here.

 

Btw, this Tuesday still looks hot and humid, with more widespread 90F+ potential, away from the coast.

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Looking pretty good that NYC-LGA-JFK wont see any official heat waves in 2014.

NYC didn't see any heat waves in 2004 which was also the last time that it dipped

below 5 degrees.

 

Jan 2004 minimum.....1

Jan 2014 minimum.....4

 

No heat waves either summer.

 

 

Not great for those who enjoy heat/summer extremes, but still a very nice summer with 85%great weekend weather.  Not too many rainy days.  The timing of Arthur was terrible with the 4th of July but lots of great weather overall.  Perhaps we'll have the same progression as 2004 or 2009 and subsequent seasons to end those years and into 2006/2010. 

 

Either way Sep looks warm and a little Indian summer on the maps continues.

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Nobody thinks all this super heat in September and a massive eastern ridge will lock in for several months heading into the winter?  

 

This really isn't such super heat for September compared to big September heat of the past.

But September temperatures don't have much correlation to the winter patterns here anyway.

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This really isn't such super heat for September compared to big September heat of the past.

But September temperatures don't have much correlation to the winter patterns here anyway.

I know October typically tells the story. With such high moisture values, it wouldn't shock me if local spots pick up several inches in a rapid period of time once again just like on LI. 

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the park bagged a 90 today. tuesday looks like a lock... tomorrow depends on convective timing. latest first heat wave in decades?

when I was 21 I drove a cab in Manhattan during August and September 1970...it was hot many of those days but September 22-26 the highs were 94/93/89/90/91 if I'm remembering right...It was brutal especially without ac...

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