Post Tropical Cristobal

[phil882]

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 72.3W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 72.3W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 72.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.9N 73.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.0N 74.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.6N 74.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 29.0N 77.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 32.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 72.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the
disturbance near the southeastern Bahamas found a well-defined
circulation this afternoon. Even though the convective presentation
is somewhat ragged, there is enough organization to classify the
system as a tropical cyclone. The intensity is set to 30 kt based
on flight level wind data from the aircraft and an earlier ASCAT
pass, and the central pressure of 1005 mb is based on a recent
surface observation from Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos. The
SHIPS model shows light to moderate shear over the cyclone for the
next couple of days, which should allow for intensification given
that the cyclone will be moving over waters of 29 to 30C. The NHC
forecast shows slow strengthening in the first 24 to 36 hours as
the cyclone organizes. Global models show more favorable upper-
level winds over the system in a couple of days, which should allow
for strengthening to a hurricane in by 3 days. The official forecast
is close to the IVCN intensity consensus through the period.

The initial motion estimate is a relatively uncertain 310/10 given
the recent formation of the center. The cyclone should continue
moving northwestward and north-northwestward into a developing break
in the subtropical ridge cause by a mid/upper-level trough off the
U.S. east coast. As the trough begins to lift out and steering
currents weaken, a slow motion is expected in 36 to 48 hours. Then
as a subtropical ridge rebuilds to the east of the cyclone later in
the period, the system is expected to turn northward and then
northeastward. However, there is significant disagreement in
the timing and sharpness of the turn in this and previous dynamical
model cycles. Currently the GFDL and GFS are along the western
edge of the guidance envelope showing a more westward track and
a slower motion at day 5. The ECMWF, GEFS mean, and HWRF show a
sharper turn and a more northeastward motion by day 5 on the east
side of the guidance envelope. The NHC forecast is near the TVCA
multi-model consensus through most of the period and a little to the
left of it at day 5. Given the spread in the guidance and the recent
formation of the system, confidence in the details of the track
forecast is lower than normal.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 21.8N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 22.9N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 74.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 24.6N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 25.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 26.5N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 29.0N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 32.0N 76.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN

[Kory]

Interesting last sentence in the NHC discussion. 

 

 

 

Given the spread in the guidance and the recent formation of the system, confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than normal.

[Harbourton]

 

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014

2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED

ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED

ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE

CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG

ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED

ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED

ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG

ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN

THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS

OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 72.3W AT 23/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 72.3W AT 23/2100Z

AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 72.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.9N 73.6W

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.0N 74.4W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.6N 74.8W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.0N 75.0W

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.5N 76.0W

MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 29.0N 77.5W

MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 32.0N 76.5W

MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 72.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014

500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the

disturbance near the southeastern Bahamas found a well-defined

circulation this afternoon. Even though the convective presentation

is somewhat ragged, there is enough organization to classify the

system as a tropical cyclone. The intensity is set to 30 kt based

on flight level wind data from the aircraft and an earlier ASCAT

pass, and the central pressure of 1005 mb is based on a recent

surface observation from Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos. The

SHIPS model shows light to moderate shear over the cyclone for the

next couple of days, which should allow for intensification given

that the cyclone will be moving over waters of 29 to 30C. The NHC

forecast shows slow strengthening in the first 24 to 36 hours as

the cyclone organizes. Global models show more favorable upper-

level winds over the system in a couple of days, which should allow

for strengthening to a hurricane in by 3 days. The official forecast

is close to the IVCN intensity consensus through the period.

The initial motion estimate is a relatively uncertain 310/10 given

the recent formation of the center. The cyclone should continue

moving northwestward and north-northwestward into a developing break

in the subtropical ridge cause by a mid/upper-level trough off the

U.S. east coast. As the trough begins to lift out and steering

currents weaken, a slow motion is expected in 36 to 48 hours. Then

as a subtropical ridge rebuilds to the east of the cyclone later in

the period, the system is expected to turn northward and then

northeastward. However, there is significant disagreement in

the timing and sharpness of the turn in this and previous dynamical

model cycles. Currently the GFDL and GFS are along the western

edge of the guidance envelope showing a more westward track and

a slower motion at day 5. The ECMWF, GEFS mean, and HWRF show a

sharper turn and a more northeastward motion by day 5 on the east

side of the guidance envelope. The NHC forecast is near the TVCA

multi-model consensus through most of the period and a little to the

left of it at day 5. Given the spread in the guidance and the recent

formation of the system, confidence in the details of the track

forecast is lower than normal.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 21.8N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 24/0600Z 22.9N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 74.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 25/0600Z 24.6N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

48H 25/1800Z 25.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

72H 26/1800Z 26.5N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

96H 27/1800Z 29.0N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

120H 28/1800Z 32.0N 76.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$

Forecaster Brennan

NNNN

Really boils down to accuracy of forecasting high pressure to north of the cyclone.

[Hvward]

[smog strangler]

I am no TC wishing weenie for my general region which is right on the edge but you have to be a little surprised that true south FL is nowhere near the cone (Miami) when multiple models and many ensembles (even the EURO) are in that area. 

[N. OF PIKE]

man, convection really firing over what looks like a consolidating LLC over  21.4 72

 

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1200&height=700&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

[Srain]

With the development of TD 4 and the potential threat to the United States, this pinned thread will be for analysis and productive discussions regarding the future track and developments it poses to the Bahamas and the US. Stricter moderation will begin and banter should be directed to the various sub forums. If a Hurricane develops and poses a landfall threat, Storm Mode will be activated. Plans were made last Thursday for this contingency. Let’s keep this thread clean and informative.

[DopplerWx]

gfs looks similar to 12z thru 108hrs.  offshore fl moving nnw.

[Kory]

18z GFS looks funky.  It shows a disheveled system with the 500 mbar vorticity and 850 mbar vortitcity completely separate with shear not even being strong enough to have an affect.  

 

500 mbar for Tuesday evening

 

850 mbar vorticity for Tuesday evening:

[phil882]

A couple of things to watch for as TD#4 organizes tonight

 

1) Where does the surface circulation consolidate?

 

- This one is a biggie. Because the circulation is still large and broad (note that the strongest winds on recon are just under a hundred kilometers away from the circulation center). The strongest winds are to the northeast of the llc, so in the assumption of the same thermodynamic profile WISHE would tend to favor convective development in this quadrant due to stronger surface fluxes due to stronger winds. This is especially important when you have a large wind circulation but not a well defined circulation center, as the resulting convection could cause the mean center to shift towards the region of strongest PV generation again due to convection in that quadrant. Thus, if there is a center relocation, it likely would most likely be to the northeast where the strongest convection is occurring currently, but this is very tricky to forecast with any sense of confidence. Such an evolution would favor the right side of the model guidance. 

 

2) What about the strong mid-latitude trough to the north?

 

- This is a hard forecast, because mid-latitude trough to TD#4's north has multiple pieces of energy that are rotating around the mean trough position. One such spoke of vorticity is dropping down from the northeastern US and off the mid-atlantic coastline tonight. This piece of upper-level vorticity is forecast to erode the current weak mid-level ridge overhead of TD#4 and collapse the steering currents. If the upper-level impulse drops further south and west than expected, it might also pick up TD#4 and cause a much earlier recurvature than currently forecasted. This is the solution the CMC is suggesting. However, if it tracks further north and east than forecast, it might completely miss TD#4 and allow for the mid-level ridge to build in earlier and stronger than anticipated, resulting in a further westward track for TD#4.

 

Right now the deterministic GFS and ECMWF are forecasting something in between those two extremes where the upper-level spoke of vorticity partially captures TD#4 enough to draw it north, but not west closer to the US. Beyond 72 hours, the mid-level ridge reforms east of the TD#4 and instead of imparting westerly steering, it will be on its eastward side generating easterly steering flow that should recurve TD#4 into the mid-latitudes. However, the ensembles continue to depict a wide variety of solutions of this upper-level vorticity spoke and this is why the current forecast has a large degree of uncertainty. 

 

3) Intensity of TD#4?

 

- As most of you know, the models seem to like TD#4 and intensify it at at least a climatological pace over the next 48-72 hours. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF don't quite share this optimistic viewpoint and develop at least moderate northwesterly shear over TD#4 within the next 48 hours, putting a break on the intensification until it completes interaction with the aforementioned piece of the mid-latitude trough. However, that's with the expectation that TD#4 only slowly organizes in the short term. If TD#4 intensifies more rapidly, the irrotational outflow produced by the convection of the system would be able to mitigate this unfavorable upper-level flow.

[Harbourton]

Water vapor image is pretty impressive.

 

[N. OF PIKE]

Phil Is the system vertically aligned?

[phil882]

Phil Is the system vertically aligned?

 

Not quite yet... the 750 hPa center (fixed by the NOAA P3) was displaced to the northeast of the 925 hPa center (fixed by the Air Force).

 

The center is so broad at the surface though, its hard to get a good handle on the vertical tilt until the circulation becomes better defined. 

[Hvward]

18z HWRF bombs it off the SC coast with pressure as low as 952mb and wind speeds of 135mph on Thursday.

[Srain]

As Phil mentioned, the spread among the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean is rather large. A G-IV mission is tasked for tomorrow to sample the upper air environment ahead and around TD4. That data should assist the various tropical guidance regarding the future track of this system.

 

 

 

[stormspotterlive]

18z HWRF bombs it off the SC coast with pressure as low as 952mb and wind speeds of 135mph on Thursday.

[SN_Lover]

Depression four looks like something to watch. Downsloping still causing dry air to mix in. Depression does appear to be stacked. Depression  will be heading into a area of >20kt shear. After it moves further towards the CONUS it's anyone's guess. Have a good feeling(or bad, depending on perspective) about this one.  

[Kory]

Since the system is still rather weak, looks like it'll be steered by the lower levels.  The gate is wide open for it to go north and then northeast.

 

[DopplerWx]

gfs takes it almost due north then ots, not even close to the coasts

[CCHurricane]

gfs takes it almost due north then ots, not even close to the coasts

I think this is a case, and a lesson, of not to really have ANY confidence in models, even the specialized hurricane models, until a defined CoC has been identified. Before that happens, the models are just guessing.

[AvantHiatus]

I think this is a case, and a lesson, of not to really have ANY confidence in models, even the specialized hurricane models, until a defined CoC has been identified. Before that happens, the models are just guessing.

Perhaps a touch of convective feedback in this run, not wishcasting here. Some runs do not have the convection NE of TD4.

[phil882]

The trends from the 00z runs so far aren't surprising given that all of the deep convection associated with TD#4 is primarily in the northeastern quadrant of the system. We'll see what recon finds (which is in route) but it wouldn't be surprising to see a center relocation or a more northward component of motion. Since the system is in a COL area between two ridges, it was really going to need to stay left of the NHC track to pose a significant chance to impact the US. A rightward relocation certainly opens up the possibility it gets fully captured by the existing mid-latitude trough from the US and an earlier recurvature as a result. 

[David Reimer]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 05:38Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)

Tropical Depression: Number 4 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 6

Observation Number: 05

A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 5:18:30Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°35'N 72°59'W (22.5833N 72.9833W)

B. Center Fix Location: 142 miles (228 km) to the WNW (303°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 78 nautical miles (90 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 172° at 41kts (From the S at ~ 47.2mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 100 nautical miles (115 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg) - Extrapolated

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 364m (1,194ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 365m (1,198ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet

O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) which was observed 100 nautical miles (115 statute miles) to the SE (133°) from the flight level center at 4:47:30Z

Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

[phil882]

Looks like the overnight convection has spun up a tighter center... recon center fix is down to 1001 mb and stronger winds are occurring closer to the center. It does look like there is a bit of eastward tilt with height still since the center is on the western edge of the deepest convection.

[David Reimer]

The 06Z early tracks are actually in decent agreement about the northeast turn with none of the 0Z GEFS members making a landfall. We'll see what happens today. 

[yoda]

Still a TD at 5am...

 

The NHC track has been shiftedeastward, but it remains along the western side of theguidance envelope out of respect for the ECMWF and continuity of theprevious forecasts. The new track forecast is closest to the HWRF,but is well west of the latest multi-model consensus.  Futureeastward adjustments may be required if the eastward model trendcontinues.  Given that a large spread remains in the guidance,the confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal.

 

That is from the NHC disco

[Floydbuster]

000

WTNT64 KNHC 241019

TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014

620 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE

THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL.

THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 MPH...75 KM/H WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.

SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION

--------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.9N 73.3W

ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NNW OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND

ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[Srain]

9 MPH to the NW may be generous. The last two vortex messages from the Air Force C-130 showed the center had hardly moved. NOAA P-3 is just arriving, so we will see if that trend continues. First Goes E Rapid Scan 1KM imagery also suggest Cristobal is nearly stationary.

[bluewave]

You can see how difficult it has been to get a hurricane in Florida since Wilma in 2005.

 

 

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/florida-hurricane-free-streak-luck-run-out-20140801

 

 

Heading in to the heart of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, it is interesting to note that it has been 8 years, 9 months and 1 week, or 3,200 days, since a hurricane has made landfall in Florida.

This is the longest stretch of consecutive years since 1851 that no hurricanes have hit the state. The longest hurricane-free streak prior to this one was five consecutive seasons from 1980 to 1984.

This is impressive, considering the coastline of Florida spans more than 1,260 miles from the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic Ocean, and an average of 8 hurricanes have formed each year since 2005.

[phil882]

9 MPH to the NW may be generous. The last two vortex messages from the Air Force C-130 showed the center had hardly moved. NOAA P-3 is just arriving, so we will see if that trend continues. First Goes E Rapid Scan 1KM imagery also suggest Cristobal is nearly stationary.

 

Some direct links from CIRA on the super rapid scan imagery. 

 

1 minute 1 km visible loop of Tropical Storm Cristobal

1 minute 4 km infrared loop of TS Cristobal

1 minute 4 km water vapor loop of TS Cristobal

 

NOAA P3 fixes suggest a northeastward drift the last few fixes, possibly in response to the strong convection ongoing in its eastern quadrant. 

 

Quick Model Recap:

 

00z ECMWF stayed relatively consistent from its 12z run, and the ensembles still show ample uncertainty (with still plenty of members going into the GoM).

 

06z GFS is now suggesting Christobal will be picked up by the mid-latitude trough very early on, with its 72 hour position near Bermuda. The GFS also suggest that the low level circulation will decouple from the mid-level vortex in order for this to occur. Part of this forecast seems to be due to a frontal cyclone that forms to the TCs northeast in the 24-48 hour range. While this seems like a very large departure from earlier, the motion of the TC suggest its a viable option, especially if the TC continues to track right of the NHC forecast track. The 06z GFS ensembles have also shifted strongly to the right the last model cycle, in concert with the control member (again note the GEFS have been known to be underdispersive so they may not be capturing the full probability of forecast solutions).