Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Still only 9 days until Labor Day but after seeing what Accuweather (FWIW) issued for their fall forecast was enough to volunteer myself again for starting the September general discussion thread: http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/fall-2014-forecast-polar-vortex/31254218 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 This is the time of year on weather boards when interest starts to grow for the coming winter and what it may hold...but I absolutely LOVE Fall and am so excited its almost here. Sept/Oct have boring weather more often than not, but the crisp air, colorful trees and all the activities Fall brings are something I really look forward to every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 This is the time of year on weather boards when interest starts to grow for the coming winter and what it may hold...but I absolutely LOVE Fall and am so excited its almost here. Sept/Oct have boring weather more often than not, but the crisp air, colorful trees and all the activities Fall brings are something I really look forward to every year. Frost. That's the main "first" to watch for in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 The beginning of the month looks to start off warm. Could even log another 90*F day or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 This year has truly lacked heat and humidity, and now as we head towards September we finally appear to be getting some above normal days. Time for some climo. How normal is 90-degree heat in September at Detroit? In may be more common than you think...of course...its primarily in the months first two weeks. Since 1874, or 140 Septembers, 90F+ heat was observed in 59 of the 140 years, or about 42% of the time. There have been 130 days on record where the temperature rose to 90F or higher in September. Septembers with the most 90F+ days... 1931 - 6 days 1939 - 6 days 1978 - 6 days 1952 - 5 days 1895 - 4 days 1922 - 4 days 1953 - 4 days 1955 - 4 days 1973 - 4 days 2002 - 4 days 12 times in September the temp has risen to 97F+ 100F - Sept 15, 1939 100F - Sept 2, 1953 100F - Sept 3, 1953 99F - Sept 5, 1954 98F - Sept 14, 1939 98F - Sept 16, 1939 98F - Sept 1, 1953 98F - Sept 8, 1976 98F - Sept 2, 2011 97F - Sept 13, 1874 97F - Sept 7, 1939 97F - Sept 8, 1978 Times when Detroit more than doubled their yearly total of 90F heat in September *In 1912, Detroit saw just 1 day of 90F thru August, then had 3 more in September, for a yearly total of 4. *In 1922, Detroit saw just 4 days of 90F thru August then had 4 more in September for a yearly total of 8 *In 1960, Detroit saw just 2 days of 90F thru August then had 3 more in September for a yearly total of 5 Times when Detroits maximum temp for the year was set in September 1874 - 97F on Sept 13th (*also set earlier in summer) 1899 - 95F on Sept 7th 1912 - 92F on Sept 10th 1915 - 89F on Sept 14th 1927 - 95F on Sept 15th 1939 - 100F on Sept 15th 1943 - 96F on Sept 1st 1953 - 100F on Sept 2nd & 3rd 1954 - 99F on Sept 5th 1960 - 94F on Sept 1st 1978 - 97F on Sept 8th 1985 - 91F on Sept 7th (*also set earlier in summer) 2008 - 93F on Sept 3rd (*also set earlier in summer) On the flip side...the September with the lowest max temp on record was 1876, when the max was only 77F. It was the only September to not have an 80F reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Was wondering what kind of setup would be in place to cause Detroit to hit 100 on September 15, 1939 (Indianapolis also hit 100 that day). Here it is...pretty toasty look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Latest "guess" by the CFS for September. Inferno and biblical flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Latest "guess" by the CFS for September. Inferno and biblical flooding. cfs sept 2014 temps.gif cfs sept 2014 precip.gif Long range GFS after Sunday does look active with a prolonged trough out west so this isn't too surprising to see. Basically a continuation of the last week or so with respect to activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Latest "guess" by the CFS for September. Inferno and biblical flooding. cfs sept 2014 temps.gif cfs sept 2014 precip.gif Gonna make it tough for golfing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Gonna make it tough for golfing. It would be interesting to see this play out, the last 3 storms we have had here in Metro Detroit there was freeway flooding.If we continued into September with more heavy rains we could be dealing with some overland flood issues, especially if we were to have some sort of tropical system's remnants up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Latest "guess" by the CFS for September. Inferno and biblical flooding. How about a couple severe wx outbreaks to go alongside with that look, damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Latest "guess" by the CFS for September. Inferno and biblical flooding. I am posting a CFS precipitation plot for September. The difference between this and what was posted by ChicagoWX was this: initial conditions were Aug 18-27. This also looks very rainy for the Midwest. I am a little concerned--maybe this is too rainy for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 MOS has 91 on Thursday and 89 on Friday here. Let's see how bad it does this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Always very much FWIW, but here's the last 9 efforts by the CFS for September. Last run toned down the torch a touch...but wetter remains the theme. As usual, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 That's an impressive wet signal. Looks like 3/4 of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 That's an impressive wet signal. Looks like 3/4 of the country. I wonder if it is tampered with a possible Gulf tropical system? To me that has to be part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Picked up 0.80" of rain overnight, our best since July 12th. As expected, the rain really pooped out as it approached the Mississippi river, but it held together just long enough to give us the soaker we needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Just had a couple downpours here and a bit of moderate rain. Very sticky out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 0.11" here from the decaying sloppy seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Only 0.03" here. 77°/71° currently with mostly cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Maxed out at 86F to start this September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Had a few sprinkles beneath some dying towers a short while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Had some rain late this morning. Probably about .08 or so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Last chance for 90 comes on Thursday, although overnight convection will probably have a say on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Last chance for 90 comes on Thursday, although overnight convection will probably have a say on that. MKX is pretty bullish on the severe weather potential, certainly looks much better than Monday, but I'm kinda worried the front will delay and not push through until the wee hours around 4-6am or something like that. Even though instability doesn't wane to nothing, it would still be nice to see a prime time severe scenario that hasn't happened much in the last month or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 MKX is pretty bullish on the severe weather potential, certainly looks much better than Monday, but I'm kinda worried the front will delay and not push through until the wee hours around 4-6am or something like that. Even though instability doesn't wane to nothing, it would still be nice to see a prime time severe scenario that hasn't happened much in the last month or two. The GFS and especially Euro keep instability very high overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Right now I have 88° in the grid for Thursday. I agree with Brewers, Thursday will probably be the last good shot at 90° this year! Really nice out tonight. Currently in the low 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 friday looks decent for convection after that, the weekend looks killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Tops on the storm approaching the Twin Cities metro around 55DBZ. Gonna be an interesting day in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 With many hi-res models (the last couple NAM runs, the LSX WRF and the 4KM SPC WRF to name a few) diving a weakening MCS SE overnight tonight into the Western Lakes, I'm thinking that may hold a bigger potential for convection than tomorrow night into early Friday morning, with frontal timing looking less than ideal and forcing waning at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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