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2014-15 winter outlook


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Joe D had a good writeup today on WB, looking at -QBO/easterly winters.  He then looked at only central pac nino's, and warm pool NPAC he came up with these analogs...69/77/80/87/04/10.  RDU averaged about 150% of climo.  I know this is about the 100th time someone has brought up these same analogs, but no matter what you look at these seasons keep coming up.

 

 Why are both 04 and 10 in here? You mean 04 and 09? Also, (79-) 80 isn't officially a Nino per ONI though it is very close. Maybe he uses MEI?

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 Why are both 04 and 10 in here? You mean 04 and 09? Also, (79-) 80 isn't officially a Nino per ONI though it is very close. Maybe he uses MEI?

 

Good question, he didn't qualify it, I guess he is using neutral positive's too, although like you pointed out '10 was a strong Nino.  He simply stated a weak Nino "modoki".  He was probably liberal with the weak for both the high/low and focused on central based warming.  Though central based warming isn't guaranteed yet for this winter.

 

And if you throw 04/10 out you get similar composites.  And thinking more about it, I am wondering since the focus was on -QBO winters with central pac warming he was fairly liberal whether it was neutral pos/weak/moderate.

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Yeah, winter is going to suck. +5 December, +6 in January, and +3 in February with a rogue sleet pellet or a graupel.

That maps says ice, and if that means rogue sleet then Wahoo!!!!!  An inch of rogue sleet is like maybe 5 inches of regular sleet.  Wahoo!!! Wahoo!!!  Rogue sleet can't be beat!!  Bless you, CR.  Deliverer of great news that you are.  T

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Tony, you missed my snowfall forecast of -3". :(

My 2014/15 winter outlook for GSP proper:

Temps for DJF 3.5 below normal total

Snowfall 11.5 ( roughly 175% of normal )

Sleet : 2 inches

This is based on wooly worms, persimmon seeds and the amount of berries on my deciduous hollies. This is my official and final prediction!

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My 2014-15 winter forecast for Atlanta and surrounding areas:

 

December: Temps near normal, precip near normal

January:     Temps near normal, precip above normal

February:    Temps below normal, precip near normal

 

Overall for the winter: temps near normal, precip near normal

 

Snowfall : 1" on average for the region

 

I get the feeling this winter will be somewhere between the horrible winter of 2011-12 and the amazing winter of 2013-14. Not as great as last winter, but not as bad as the 2011-12 winter.

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That was a good write up. The one thing they mentioned for us Piedmont folks is the higher chances of over-running events (CAD). Another thing they mentioned was winter forecasts are still a shot in the dark. I think we really need to get to get into early December to get a better idea. Or we might just have to wait and look out the window.

brave to go snowier than normal in the se lol (although the nc mtns are usually ok)

 

what i liked to see was the flow over and out of the gulf of mexico.  historically, good se storms (and overrunning) happen when we get the lows in the GoM (seems like they used to happen a lot. nothing better than the temps in place and then a slow moving low out of the gulf :) )

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brave to go snowier than normal in the se lol (although the nc mtns are usually ok)

 

what i liked to see was the flow over and out of the gulf of mexico.  historically, good se storms (and overrunning) happen when we get the lows in the GoM (seems like they used to happen a lot. nothing better than the temps in place and then a slow moving low out of the gulf :) )

I agree that we use to see many more storms out of the gulf of mexico in the 60's and 70's where as now it seems if you get one in the winter you are lucky.  :snowing:

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My 2014/15 winter outlook for GSP proper:

Temps for DJF 3.5 below normal total

Snowfall 11.5 ( roughly 175% of normal )

Sleet : 2 inches

This is based on wooly worms, persimmon seeds and the amount of berries on my deciduous hollies. This is my official and final prediction!

  

That's a pretty good forecast Mack.

My 2014-15 winter forecast for Atlanta and surrounding areas:

 

December: Temps near normal, precip near normal

January:     Temps near normal, precip above normal

February:    Temps below normal, precip near normal

 

Overall for the winter: temps near normal, precip near normal

 

Snowfall : 1" on average for the region

 

I get the feeling this winter will be somewhere between the horrible winter of 2011-12 and the amazing winter of 2013-14. Not as great as last winter, but not as bad as the 2011-12 winter.

Lol nice!

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Looking more Nino / +PDO every day...

 

mb06AUI.png

Yep things are really heading into the right direction as far as what we want to see down the road happen. Nino is coming around and the Eurasian snow cover is going crazy right know and looks as if we stay in a favorable pattern for snow expanse up there also. DT had a great write up on the main forum page about it.

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Looking more Nino / +PDO every day...

 

 

 

Can you post the image from that site from 2 months ago to compare?  If you compare what's happened over the past 2 months on the site I use you can see the GOA cooling, and the Nino forming.  

 

That cooling in the GOA isn't good?

 

mid-Aug

 

anomnight.8.14.2014.gif

 

 

mid-Oct

 

anomnight.10.16.2014.gif

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Pack, you worried about the warm pool cooling because we'd be less likely to then see ridging in that area? Would the cooling of the waters to the west of there promote a trough in that area, which would still promote a ridge in the GOA/west coast area? Besides, the waters are still warm and may rebound if that area can ever get a break fe storminess again.

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Pack, don't worry about the goa sstas cooling.Its not bad at all and should be expected as the atmosphere seems to be taking on typical Nino characteristics.

A "normal" Nino has low pressure in the npac from s of the Aleutians eastward into the goa. We've had that going since the beginning of the month and ssts are responding accordingly.

The thing the se and ma needs to worry about is the placement of goa vortex during djf. If it's too far east it screws up storm track and temps. We end up with a dominant -pna on the means.

As long as the lowest heights are centered far enough west in the goa it pumps up the pna ridge. That's the pattern we want. Storms undercutting the pna ridge.

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Pack, you worried about the warm pool cooling because we'd be less likely to then see ridging in that area? Would the cooling of the waters to the west of there promote a trough in that area, which would still promote a ridge in the GOA/west coast area? Besides, the waters are still warm and may rebound if that area can ever get a break fe storminess again.

 

Well I like Grit's pic better, it does display the horseshoe signature better that we want for the for a +PDO.  I am not overly worried about that, yet.  That's why I want to see from the site Grit uses what it looked like in Aug.

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Pack, don't worry about the goa sstas cooling.Its not bad at all and should be expected as the atmosphere seems to be taking on typical Nino characteristics.

A "normal" Nino has low pressure in the npac from s of the Aleutians eastward into the goa. We've had that going since the beginning of the month and ssts are responding accordingly.

The thing the se and ma needs to worry about is the placement of goa vortex during djf. If it's too far east it screws up storm track and temps. We end up with a dominant -pna on the means.

As long as the lowest heights are centered far enough west in the goa it pumps up the pna ridge. That's the pattern we want. Storms undercutting the pna ridge.

 

Thanks Bob!  And we won't be able to worry about the GOA vortex until the season get's rolling, so enough worrying for today....:-)

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Thanks Bob! And we won't be able to worry about the GOA vortex until the season get's rolling, so enough worrying for today....:-)

Exactly, everything has been favorable for us since the start of Oct. We're a month and a half away from real worry time.

Even if we get the -ao response from sai, the ne Pac can still throw a wrench early. Dec 2012 is a prime example.

I only worry about and focus on winter 1 month at a time. It's all about Dec right now and we really won't get much of a bead on it until the second half of Nov.

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Can you post the image from that site from 2 months ago to compare?  If you compare what's happened over the past 2 months on the site I use you can see the GOA cooling, and the Nino forming.  

 

That cooling in the GOA isn't good?

 

I don't see an archive on that site, but yeah, the classic +PDO signature was what struck me.  GaWx said the Sept PDO came in at 1.08, though the Univ of Wash site hasn't updated it yet...and Oct looks even higher with the PDO look.  

 

Xj9L8YV.gif

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The PDO is up to +1.08 according to Washington University. It's evident that the configuration is becoming more and more positive just by looking at the SSW anomaly map. Nino is looking good as well since the westerlies kicked. It's feeding the Kelvin wave nicely. Nino 3.4 is feeling the current surfacing Kelvin wave. I suspect the numbers will increase on Monday's update.

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Tony, you missed my snowfall forecast of -3". :(

-3 inches of snow bothers me not one whit, as long as you are forecasting rogue sleet!  I can do without the snow as long as I get some sleet.  Snow is only a backup for when it won't sleet, and rogue sleet puts it way way back on the importance meter.  By my calculations even -3 inches of rogue sleet will equate to +2 inches of regular sleet.  A win/win all over the place, and all winter long.  Wahoo!!  CR predicts rogues sleet....Wahoo!!!  And if you can bring it on Xmas day, so much the better....now I have to wait for Robert to validate your prediction.  If my two favorite predictors of inclement weather...who are not employees of the United States Department of Inclement Weather, the USDIW, predict rogue sleet, then it's in the bag!!!  Wahoo!!  Come on Foothills!!! 

    PS.... Larry, it warmed up again last night down here, so a super warm Oct is also in the bag, almost.  If it goes into the mid 40's tonight, but warms up by morning, we are in like Flynn down here..sleet for everybody...well, at least for me, and Shack to the south, lol.  From the Airport north it may be a long wait this winter :)  T

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    PS.... Larry, it warmed up again last night down here, so a super warm Oct is also in the bag, almost.  If it goes into the mid 40's tonight, but warms up by morning, we are in like Flynn down here..sleet for everybody...well, at least for me, and Shack to the south, lol.  From the Airport north it may be a long wait this winter :)  T

 

Tony,

  I finally feel pretty confident that a warm overall Oct. for KATL will verify. I'm happy as of now. One thing I've been noticing is that the GFS is exhibiting a cool bias there. Let the cold come back in Nov.

 

 

 

Edit: So, warm Oct is step 1 and is looking good. Step 2: actually get the Nino. That continues to look better with pretty good 3.4 warming, -SOI recently, and continued model support for a weak one. Step 3: actually get cold this winter. I've recently raised the chance for a DJF +PDO to 95% and for +0.5+ to 2 out of 3 chance. The Oct. Eurasian snowcover and current -AO are looking somewhat favorable for a wintertime -AO. -AO means good chance for -NAO. I'll also be looking at the Nov. AO due to its good correlation with DJF AO. With all of these factors combining, a cold DJF is looking more and more likely. So, step 3 is looking better and better. Per the analogs, a warm ATL Oct. followed by a cold ATL DJF during a Nino suggests a good bit above average chance for above normal SN/IP/ZR at ATL and at least most of the main CAD areas.

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Larry, not the GFS?  The one that regularly gets snow into mid Fla, and below freezing into Cuba?  That GFS?  No cold bias that I an see, lol.  Especially when it's 20 6 days out, and 36 when it gets here, lol.  Yep, per your reports in this thread, and the main page thread, we are looking good Climo wise, as long as there isn't some aberration, like Katla going off and making things warmer, instead of the opposite...at least until next winter when the sulfa aerosols, and particulates will make it Siberian like, unless it doesn't :)  Oh, well, this time of year, I'm always filled with hope, no matter the signs and scents, and only the short winter months can beat it out of me, and leave me a wretched husk for the summer. Once in the occasional blue moon, I find myself, at winter's end saying, "please, may I have some more?" So, the hope springs back each fall like a plastic clown with sand in the bottom :)  T

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Exactly, everything has been favorable for us since the start of Oct. We're a month and a half away from real worry time.

Even if we get the -ao response from sai, the ne Pac can still throw a wrench early. Dec 2012 is a prime example.

I only worry about and focus on winter 1 month at a time. It's all about Dec right now and we really won't get much of a bead on it until the second half of Nov.

I don't worry until March  :P     

 

Even though I'm still waiting on the Nino to make an appearance. I'm perfectly happy with an "equal chance" winter, with a slightly higher possibility of it being cooler and wetter than normal. It's everything southern winters are supposed to be  :lol:  

 

Larry, not the GFS?  The one that regularly gets snow into mid Fla, and below freezing into Cuba?  That GFS?  No cold bias that I an see, lol.  Especially when it's 20 6 days out, and 36 when it gets here, lol.  Yep, per your reports in this thread, and the main page thread, we are looking good Climo wise, as long as there isn't some aberration, like Katla going off and making things warmer, instead of the opposite...at least until next winter when the sulfa aerosols, and particulates will make it Siberian like, unless it doesn't :)  Oh, well, this time of year, I'm always filled with hope, no matter the signs and scents, and only the short winter months can beat it out of me, and leave me a wretched husk for the summer. Once in the occasional blue moon, I find myself, at winter's end saying, "please, may I have some more?" So, the hope springs back each fall like a plastic clown with sand in the bottom :)  T

I hope the gfs does this often this winter  :P    I have hope too Tony  :hug:    

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