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August Banter 2014

mackerel_sky

By mackerel_sky,
in Southeastern States

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I decided to move this to banter before Burns does it:

I wonder how high is the chance Brick is on the wx complaint list for any random day of each season. Someone ought to do a statistical analysis. Perhaps we'd be surprised with the results. I wonder what season's average complaint chance would be highest and which would be lowest. Winter has snow on occasion. Then again, it normally has to be measurable to make him happy. Furthermore, I recall him often complaining when it isn't a heavy accumulation, which just about knocks out the entire winter other than non-cold sunnyish days. I think he needs some insanely high amount (for RDU) of something like 4" or even 6" to be satisfied. So, that probably gives one day or fewer of happiness on average. Also, I seem to recall that he's not crazy about ZR and possibly even IP but I could be wrong.

In spring, he has the best shot at severe. Also, he seems to enjoy following severe in other locations.

In summer, he gets occasional severe at home and in some other locations for following purposes. In mainly late summer and fall, he gets a hurricane or maybe even two to threaten the east coast in some seasons. Also, on occasion he gets severe from a hurricane that goes inland on the Gulf.

Also, as mentioned, he likes no precip days, especially if he wants to do outdoor stuff including perhaps watching his son's baseball? games.

 

That's about right. I hate plain rain. I hate plain cold. I like warm and sunny in the summer, snowy in the winter, and some severe weather to follow every now and then.

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frazdaddy

frazdaddy

Posted
Posted

With all the winter events last year, one of the most unusual was the lake effect snow in January off of Kerr and Falls Lake. I actually saw a little lake effect off of Falls Lake back in the mid 90s while still living in Wake Forest. 

 

http://nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=60

Our new home in Moncure is in the area where the Haw and the Deep river come together.This coupled with the Jordan lake Dam 2 miles away might just produce some Lake effect snow.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

:yikes: See below

Widespread 2-3" across the entire state, no one is left out unlike the GFS which leaves out the far southern region. In fact, on the Euro there's an area Moore/Hoke counties with 6"+ a few counties wide...of course, this will change run to run but this has some juice to it. I'd post the map but I'm selective usually it what paid maps I post and this is one of 'em, there are a lot Ryan lets people distribute freely but when it comes to non WMO essential Euro maps it's a no-no.

By the way, Ryan Maue is giving away free 7-day trials without credit card requirements hit him up on twitter to see if you can get a login if interested.

He's talking about Saturday not the work week man. If the wedge is present this weekend, it has a chance to be a washout this weekend.

The article said this week. It didn't say the work week. Usually the week is Sunday through Saturday. And if Saturday is a washout, then WRAL will be wrong.

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Isopycnic

Isopycnic

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https://www.facebook...2069258?fref=nf

If you think it's been unusually cool lately, you are absolutely correct! In fact, the 6 day period from July 29-August 3 is the coldest on record at RDU with an average temperature of 71.6, more than a degree colder than the next coolest temperature during those dates, 72.8 in 2001. Just for fun, I looked back to the beginning of this year to see if we had any 6 day periods that were the warmest on record, and it didn't take long to find one. The period May 9-May 14 featured an average temperature of 76.0, more than 2 degrees warmer than the next warmest temperature during that time period, 73.6 in 2004. Why do I share these statistics with you? Because I have seen and heard folks on both sides of the Global Warming argument use these kinds of statistics to make their point. Fact:They're both wrong, dead wrong. For instance, last winter was brutally cold in the upper midwest and Great Lakes, but was actually in the warmest half of the 70 winters at RDU, and Miami had their second warmest winter on record. And globally, it was the 8th warmest winter on record. Climate occurs on long time scales and large geographical scales; weather does not. When deciding how you feel about Global Warming, and whether or not man has anything to do with it, practice good science by always being skeptical about your current view, and those of people you hear talking about it. Science is not about political ideologies, but rather facts, to the degree that we can find them. Is there uncertainty? Absolutely! Beware of anyone telling you that "The Science is Settled". Uncertainty is a part of life. We as a society need to learn how to accept uncertainty, and to make the best choices we can based on the best information we currently have. What are those choices? That is for you to decide, and for me to decide, and if we disagree, let's have a civil and respectful conversation about it.
Greg Fishel

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Posted

https://www.facebook...2069258?fref=nf

If you think it's been unusually cool lately, you are absolutely correct! In fact, the 6 day period from July 29-August 3 is the coldest on record at RDU with an average temperature of 71.6, more than a degree colder than the next coolest temperature during those dates, 72.8 in 2001. Just for fun, I looked back to the beginning of this year to see if we had any 6 day periods that were the warmest on record, and it didn't take long to find one. The period May 9-May 14 featured an average temperature of 76.0, more than 2 degrees warmer than the next warmest temperature during that time period, 73.6 in 2004. Why do I share these statistics with you? Because I have seen and heard folks on both sides of the Global Warming argument use these kinds of statistics to make their point. Fact:They're both wrong, dead wrong. For instance, last winter was brutally cold in the upper midwest and Great Lakes, but was actually in the warmest half of the 70 winters at RDU, and Miami had their second warmest winter on record. And globally, it was the 8th warmest winter on record. Climate occurs on long time scales and large geographical scales; weather does not. When deciding how you feel about Global Warming, and whether or not man has anything to do with it, practice good science by always being skeptical about your current view, and those of people you hear talking about it. Science is not about political ideologies, but rather facts, to the degree that we can find them. Is there uncertainty? Absolutely! Beware of anyone telling you that "The Science is Settled". Uncertainty is a part of life. We as a society need to learn how to accept uncertainty, and to make the best choices we can based on the best information we currently have. What are those choices? That is for you to decide, and for me to decide, and if we disagree, let's have a civil and respectful conversation about it.

Greg Fishel

This is similar to comments he made in a talk he gave, that I attended, on Centennial Campus in the spring. I don't disagree.

Now, back to Jaws 2. :)

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

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After dropping the ball on the biggest rain event of the year to date, by saying " sprinkles, and light rain possible" for last Thursday and Friday and some locals receiving 6-8 inches of rain; our local mets are now over-hyping this weekends event with:" widespread, drenching rains" lol! Bless their hearts! :)

Now back to East bound and down, season 1

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FallsLake

FallsLake

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Posted

The article said this week. It didn't say the work week. Usually the week is Sunday through Saturday. And if Saturday is a washout, then WRAL will be wrong.

Unfortunately it's looking like a washout: 

 

RDU hourly graph(for north Wake County):http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=hi&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w10u=0&w13u=1&AheadHour=96&FcstType=graphical&textField1=36.06854&textField2=-78.67881&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=&BackDay.x=32&BackDay.y=15

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
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I don't know why WRAL would tell people on a Monday  that any storms  this week will be passing rather than sustained, and that no single day will be a total washout. That's a pretty bold statement about a whole week, especially when the forecasts this summer have been off a lot with regards to rain.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

After dropping the ball on the biggest rain event of the year to date, by saying " sprinkles, and light rain possible" for last Thursday and Friday and some locals receiving 6-8 inches of rain; our local mets are now over-hyping this weekends event with:" widespread, drenching rains" lol! Bless their hearts! :)

Now back to East bound and down, season 1

 

And here we were supposed to be sunny and hot a couple of Sundays ago, only for it to rain most of the day and the forecast high be off 10 degrees. Other times the local forecast was hyping storms and rain, and it never came. I don't recall a summer where the forecasts have been so off. It's getting just as bad as trying to forecast the snow in the winter.

 

Also, I am really tired of the rain on the weekend. If it has to rain, just do it during the week so people can enjoy the weekend and do things outside.

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Jon

Jon

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Posted

The article said this week. It didn't say the work week. Usually the week is Sunday through Saturday. And if Saturday is a washout, then WRAL will be wrong.

Forecasters inch towards extremes as they get closer to said undetermined period, they don't say one or the other 6 days out. So, since this is a CAD event with a possible wash out, they'll say "possibly cooler on the weekend" ie like Mike Maze said this morning and not even mention the rain. They aren't even confident what the weekend temps would be that far out, it could be 70 or 80. Starting tomorrow they should mention the storms more and the precipitable water, etc. Euro still has 2"+ across entire state. It's not that they were wrong it's that this thing was probably, literally, 200+ hours out on the models when that was written up was it not?

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

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Forecasters inch towards extremes as they get closer to said undetermined period, they don't say one or the other 6 days out. So, since this is a CAD event with a possible wash out, they'll say "possibly cooler on the weekend" ie like Mike Maze said this morning and not even mention the rain. They aren't even confident what the weekend temps would be that far out, it could be 70 or 80. Starting tomorrow they should mention the storms more and the precipitable water, etc. Euro still has 2"+ across entire state. It's not that they were wrong it's that this thing was probably, literally, 200+ hours out on the models when that was written up was it not?

 

Yes, which is why I don't understand why they would make such a blanket statement about the whole week, especially the way forecasts have gone this summer.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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And here we were supposed to be sunny and hot a couple of Sundays ago, only for it to rain most of the day and the forecast high be off 10 degrees. Other times the local forecast was hyping storms and rain, and it never came. I don't recall a summer where the forecasts have been so off. It's getting just as bad as trying to forecast the snow in the winter.

 

Also, I am really tired of the rain on the weekend. If it has to rain, just do it during the week so people can enjoy the weekend and do things outside.

 

If everyone else on the board got rain all weekend and it was completely sunny, warm, and dry at your house, you would complain about not getting rain. You know you would! :P

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Yes, which is why I don't understand why they would make such a blanket statement about the whole week, especially the way forecasts have gone this summer.

 

What language would you prefer they use? And if you know that weather forecasting 5+ days out is likely to turn out incorrect, what difference does it make?

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

The article said this week. It didn't say the work week. Usually the week is Sunday through Saturday. And if Saturday is a washout, then WRAL will be wrong.

Brick... even NWS Raleigh distinguishes between the Week and Weekend. Check out their current discussion.

 

SENSIBLE WEATHER: THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DELAYED ONSET TO

PRECIPITATION (BEGINNING FRI NIGHT)...WITH DRY CONDITIONS

INCREASINGLY LIKELY EAST OF THE YADKIN RIVER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN

THE LOWER/MID 80S. EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND

WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...IN ADDITION TO

ISOLD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE IS EXPECTED

TO ERODE MON/TUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES

BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND

THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECT A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AT

OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN AN ACTIVE WNW/NW FLOW ALOFT

OVER THE REGION.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Brick... even NWS Raleigh distinguishes between the Week and Weekend. Check out their current discussion.

 

SENSIBLE WEATHER: THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DELAYED ONSET TO

PRECIPITATION (BEGINNING FRI NIGHT)...WITH DRY CONDITIONS

INCREASINGLY LIKELY EAST OF THE YADKIN RIVER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN

THE LOWER/MID 80S. EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND

WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...IN ADDITION TO

ISOLD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE IS EXPECTED

TO ERODE MON/TUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES

BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND

THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECT A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AT

OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN AN ACTIVE WNW/NW FLOW ALOFT

OVER THE REGION.

 

The new week starts on Sunday. The weekend is part of the week. It's not two different things. Saturday is part of this week. Yes, it is on the weekend, but it is still part of the current week. The article on WRAL.com said only passing showers for the entire week, and not one day will be a complete washout. I just think it was foolish for them to say that on Monday when forecasting the storms and rain this whole summer has been unpredictable.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Posted

 

The new week starts on Sunday. The weekend is part of the week. It's not two different things. Saturday is part of this week. Yes, it is on the weekend, but it is still part of the current week. The article on WRAL.com said only passing showers for the entire week, and not one day will be a complete washout. I just think it was foolish for them to say that on Monday when forecasting the storms and rain this whole summer has been unpredictable.

 

Weather outlets routinely distinguish between the work week and the weekend. This is nothing new. Technically, you are correct...Saturday is part of the current week. But practically, it's considered part of the weekend, particularly in weather forecasting. Even though the artical didn't use the phrase "work week", it's possible, even likely, that's what they meant.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

Boy, is it ever slow in here?  We're debating the definitions of week and weekend, because WRAL might have misspoken regarding a forecast that was seven days out?  Really?

 

:rolleyes:

 

Now that it is in banter, I'll play a bit.  For my money the week in that forecast ended Fri.  I'll pose a question for Brick.  It is Tuesday morning, a difficult day at your work.  You make the statement, "Boy, I can't wait for this week to be over."  Are you wishing for it to be Friday at 5:00pm or next Monday at 9:00am?

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

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Now that it is in banter, I'll play a bit. For my money the week in that forecast ended Fri. I'll pose a question for Brick. It is Tuesday morning, a difficult day at your work. You make the statement, "Boy, I can't wait for this week to be over." Are you wishing for it to be Friday at 5:00pm or next Monday at 9:00am?

He really just wants it to be Mon night at 9 pm, so he can watch his stories, I mean wrestling! :)
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