PB GFI Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 The 17Z HRRR had a pretty good handle on the storms in eastern Ohio, if only a touch slow. Weakens them after about 02Z-03Z as they cross eastern PA, then shows them re-firing around 07Z-08Z as they approach NYC. Been there done that before. Long midnight shift ahead?!? Any concern with regards to rotation ? Or is the bigger threat hail ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 The 17Z HRRR had a pretty good handle on the storms in eastern Ohio, if only a touch slow. Weakens them after about 02Z-03Z as they cross eastern PA, then shows them re-firing around 07Z-08Z as they approach NYC. Been there done that before. Long midnight shift ahead?!? lers see how the HRRR performs this go around it was terrible with the "potential severe "event a couple of weeks ago that didn't pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY436 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR WOLCOTT IN NEW HAVEN COUNTYCONNECTICUT...LOCATION...WOLCOTT IN NEW HAVEN COUNTY CONNECTICUTDATE...JULY 27 2014ESTIMATED TIME...1250-1256 PM EDTMAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80-85 MPHMAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...100 YDSPATH LENGTH...0.62 MILESBEGINNING LAT/LON...41.606 N / 72.983 WENDING LAT/LON...41.622 N / 72.973 W* FATALITIES...0* INJURIES...0* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TOCHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION INNWS STORM DATA....SUMMARY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK NY HAS CONFIRMED ATORNADO NEAR WOLCOTT IN NEW HAVEN COUNTY CONNECTICUT ONJULY 27 2014.A WEAK EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN WOLCOTT CT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.THE PATH BEGAN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MINOR ROAD AND CENTERSTREET WHERE A TREE WAS UPROOTED AND FACING WEST.CONVERGENT...INTERMITTENT TREE DAMAGE CONTINUED ALONG A PATH TOTHE NORTHEAST TO WOLCOTT HIGH SCHOOL. LARGE FIXED SPORTS EQUIPMENTWAS THROWN ACROSS A FIELD...AND A FENCE LINE WAS BLOWN DOWN TO THEWEST. SEVERAL TREES WERE ALSO TOPPED. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ONKALKO DRIVE SEVERAL TREES WERE DOWNED BY THE TORNADO...AND A LARGETREE FELL ON A TRAILER. THE TORNADO LIFTED AROUND STAGECOACH LANEWHERE A TREE WAS UPROOTED AND FELL TO THE WEST ONTO A HOME.THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE ATWEATHER.GOV/NYC.FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOESINTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Timing may come back to haunt us yet again. As usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Storm near Harrisburg looks nice as well as the ones further west. Lets see if/when they make it here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Storm near Harrisburg looks nice as well as the ones further west. Lets see if/when they make it here Yea we will see HRRR has them dying out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Yea we will see HRRR has them dying out We'll see if the HRRR 9-12Z supercells pan out. At least the current frame matches the radar reasonably well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Yea we will see HRRR has them dying out I will say its much more comfortable out..dew points dropping into low 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 By late night/early morning looks like more of a heavy rain and isolated damaging wind/tornado threat if those storms can regenerate upon encountering the low level jet. Almost a classic NYC/Long Island morning tornado setup given surface low pressure to the west, a warm front nearby with a strengthening 925-mb low level coastal jet, decent surface-based instability, and a very moist atmosphere with PW near 2 inches and low LCL's. Would like to see more low level warm advection to increase both 0-3 km CAPE and veering of winds with height, but the magnitude of 0-1 km shear should be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Harrisburg has been under a sever thunderstorm warning for like 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Harrisburg has been under a sever thunderstorm warning for like 2 hours this radar explains why - the motion of these storms is the reason this is in no hurry to reach here anytime soon http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=CCX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Are we honestly still expected to get severe weather or is this another bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Are we honestly still expected to get severe weather or is this another bust? maybe the warmer Cheesapeake and Delaware Bays this time of the year will save the the severe threat here during the early morning hours by sending higher DP air this way ???- also I want to apologize for the busting balloon video that was deleted by a mod - I just thought it was fun to watch also mikethehobbyists prediction of severe weatherfor breakfast might come true tomorrow if you get up early ernough with the possiblity some of us might be eating it flying through the air - if billgwx possible tornadoes verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 maybe the warmer Cheesapeake and Delaware Bays this time of the year will save the the severe threat here during the early morning hours by sending higher DP air this way ???- also I want to apologize for the busting balloon video that was deleted by a mod - I just thought it was fun to watch also mikethehobbyists prediction of severe weatherfor breakfast might come true tomorrow if you get up early ernough with the possiblity some of us might be eating it flying through the air - if billgwx possible tornadoes verify When was the last time we saw severe after midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 When was the last time we saw severe after midnight? that sounds like a good jeopardy answer and question - I have no idea - but certain unnamed popular mets are floating the idea around tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 I'm on my phone but there a few videos out there already of the confirmed Wolcott CT tornado Tornado over Wolcott High School: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 I am beginning to get worried about later tonight - that we will get severe weather here as there seems to be a lack of interest in this event - wouldn't it be ironic if this turns out to be the highlight of the severe weather this season and very few are posting here ? there are many ingredients present including a very strong LLJ which could trigger the event with the influx of high dew points coming off the cheesapeake/delaware bay region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 When was the last time we saw severe after midnight? I think in 08 or 09 we had a tornado warning in Queens around 6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 what a bust...nothing at all today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWxWatcher201 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Dam those storms in SE PA are FIERCE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Night isn't over yet. Looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Night isn't over yet. Looks interesting. Think it will end up being heavy rain with lightning and thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 When was the last time we saw severe after midnight? In 2009, about a week before the conference, we had a TOR-warned cell in northern Nassau just after midnight. I drove up the Seaford-Oyster Bay Expressway to Syosset, and got caught in quarter size hail and 55-60 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Think it will end up being heavy rain with lightning and thunder I think you may very well end up being correct, there may still be some isolated severe but I think the chances of that happening are decreasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Already seeing some lightning Just had a really close strike/loud thunder...storms not even close yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 I'm seeing some nice anvil crawlers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 I have to agree with this just being heavy rain. Radar doesn't look impressive at all... Also if we had a chance at severe storms overnight I would think we would have a watch issued. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 I'll rephrase that the radar does look good but all the back in western pa.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Reports in western Jersey of nonstop lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 A bit Surprised SPC didn't expand the Watch east. We shall see, but looks very threatening. Also those storms in western PA have really blown up as they drive east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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