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Early discussion Winter 2014/15


SACRUS

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Sort of a post at odds with reality; i.e. if it is cold or anomalously cold north of a particular dividing line (like the highway you cited)...odds are it will be cold or anomalously cold a short distance to the south of that region...

 

 

You don't get it, elevation increases at about 500ft per mile as one heads NW of I-95. So once arriving at isentropiclift's house, you're talking about a climate akin to Yakutsk, Siberia.

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You don't get it, elevation increases at about 500ft per mile as one heads NW of I-95. So once arriving at isentropiclift's house, you're talking about a climate akin to Yakutsk, Siberia.

Why must you take it there?

 

I-95 is often where the mix line sets up in marginal events. It just happens to be about where the warm air intrusion gets hung up a lot of the time.

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Why must you take it there?

 

I-95 is often where the mix line sets up in marginal events. It just happens to be about where the warm air intrusion gets hung up a lot of the time.

 

Not really. That was more the case in the 90s before this snowy regime began.

It's more about elevation.

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I think we'll have at least 5-10 events just like 12/19/09 where Long Island and coastal NJ get slammed but northwest of I-95 has nothing but cirrus and some flurries. Just a hunch. And hey, that was a Nino winter!!

 

LI is the new king of snowstorms.

Upton has averaged over 40" of snow for the last 15 years.

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Not really. That was more the case in the 90s before this snowy regime began.

It's more about elevation.

I posted earlier in this thread that I typically changeover when the coast changes over, just a few hours later. I don't pretend to have the same benefits as areas just to my north and west. Pequannock Valley is called a valley for a reason. Now if we're talking a SWFE with WAA I can usually hang onto the cold longer.

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I posted earlier in this thread that I typically changeover when the coast changes over, just a few hours later. I don't pretend to have the same benefits as areas just to my north and west. Pequannock Valley is called a valley for a reason. Now if we're talking a SWFE with WAA I can usually hang onto the cold longer.

 

You could, but the coast usually has enhancement and stronger bands before the changeover.

Unless you are far NW (which you're not), there's not much difference anymore. The 1980s and 90s are over.

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You could, but the coast usually has enhancement and stronger bands before the changeover.

Unless you are far NW (which you're not), there's not much difference anymore. The 1980s and 90s are over.

It all averages out in the end. I love my location. When I get married I'll probably be moving to Rockland County. That's where she wants to live because she works in Yonkers. I'm not really sure of the differences, they seem to do about the same as I do.

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You could, but the coast usually has enhancement and stronger bands before the changeover.

Unless you are far NW (which you're not), there's not much difference anymore. The 1980s and 90s are over.

Lets hope they don't come back for a long time.

I expect anything from almost no snow to a boatload of snow this winter. There really isn't much to go on at all when it's still July. We wont know what strength the Nino will be, we don't know if the warm pool will still be there 6 months from now, etc.

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Lets hope they don't come back for a long time.

I expect anything from almost no snow to a boatload of snow this winter. There really isn't much to go on at all when it's still July. We wont know what strength the Nino will be, we don't know if the warm pool will still be there 6 months from now, etc.

Any prediction right now is a complete shot in the dark. Very few predicted the much above normal snow and cold winter we had this year, and many predicted a cold/snowy Winter 2011-12. If the Nino develops and is more centrally-based, not East-based, that's a good sign. If it combines with a +PDO that pumps the ridge out west, that's even better. Of course, we could also use a west -NAO more frequently than we've had the last couple of winters.

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It all averages out in the end. I love my location. When I get married I'll probably be moving to Rockland County. That's where she wants to live because she works in Yonkers. I'm not really sure of the differences, they seem to do about the same as I do.

Rockland is pretty solid for snow-far enough inland to not taint but not far enough to miss out on the good banding.

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Lets hope they don't come back for a long time.

I expect anything from almost no snow to a boatload of snow this winter. There really isn't much to go on at all when it's still July. We wont know what strength the Nino will be, we don't know if the warm pool will still be there 6 months from now, etc.

 

Me too.

I don't really care about enso state anymore. Even with a perfect enso state, it doesn't mean it will snow.

IMO, after what I saw last year, give me a strong -epo.

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Me too.

I don't really care about enso state anymore. Even with a perfect enso state, it doesn't mean it will snow.

IMO, after what I saw last year, give me a strong -epo.

 

 

 

The -EPO was nice, but after last winter I've realized that even 60"+ of snow leaves me wanting something more if the big dog doesn't occur (yes, probably spoiled, whatever). I want a winter with an active STJ, and for that, you generally need an El Nino, or sometimes neutral/nina following El Nino works well (see 2010-11 and 1995-96). But since our last Nino winter was 2009-10, I think we really need the sub tropical jet activation to get some juicy nor'easters.

 

ENSO state does matter, but more so for type of pcpn events (northern stream driven, STJ, etc). Our temperatures are largely driven by the Arctic, NPAC and NATL patterns. However, there's also good evidence the placement of warmest tropical pacific anomalies are influential in the Hadley cell positioning and resultant mid latitude set-up in the Pacific which affects downstream weather.

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The -EPO was nice, but after last winter I've realized that even 60"+ of snow leaves me wanting something more if the big dog doesn't occur (yes, probably spoiled, whatever). I want a winter with an active STJ, and for that, you generally need an El Nino, or sometimes neutral/nina following El Nino works well (see 2010-11 and 1995-96). But since our last Nino winter was 2009-10, I think we really need the sub tropical jet activation to get some juicy nor'easters.

 

ENSO state does matter, but more so for type of pcpn events (northern stream driven, STJ, etc). Our temperatures are largely driven by the Arctic, NPAC and NATL patterns. However, there's also good evidence the placement of warmest tropical pacific anomalies are influential in the Hadley cell positioning and resultant mid latitude set-up in the Pacific which affects downstream weather.

 

 

Yes, but for me I prefer cold snow events and can't stand marginal ones.

Seeing 8"+ of snow fall with temps in the low teens in the middle of the day was amazing. And it happened several times last year.

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The -EPO was nice, but after last winter I've realized that even 60"+ of snow leaves me wanting something more if the big dog doesn't occur (yes, probably spoiled, whatever). I want a winter with an active STJ, and for that, you generally need an El Nino, or sometimes neutral/nina following El Nino works well (see 2010-11 and 1995-96). But since our last Nino winter was 2009-10, I think we really need the sub tropical jet activation to get some juicy nor'easters.

 

ENSO state does matter, but more so for type of pcpn events (northern stream driven, STJ, etc). Our temperatures are largely driven by the Arctic, NPAC and NATL patterns. However, there's also good evidence the placement of warmest tropical pacific anomalies are influential in the Hadley cell positioning and resultant mid latitude set-up in the Pacific which affects downstream weather.

Couldn't agree more. Give me 1995-96, 2002-03, 2010-11 or give me death.

 

You can keep 2009-2010, that was a terrible winter north of Rt. 80. Epic from DC to Philly.

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to bad there isn't a Jersey snowfall map for the 1960's and 70's...the most snow fell north and west of the city...Now it's south and east lol...If it happened before it will happen again...If I live long enough there will be winters like 1970-71 with 13" in the city and 70" in the Poconos...

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Wow-ouch in Rockland County. 33" a few towns away from 16-17".

This storm was purely elevation dependent. Those areas away from the higher terrain received about 10-15" of very heavy wet snow, depending on where your exact location is. Once you got a few hundred feet in your pocket the snow totals dramatically increased. I remember driving up to my ex girlfriends house who lived in West Milford at the time and she had three times what I got.

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Imagine how much worse the flooding would've been if you got 2 feet earlier in the month instead of cirrus clouds

With the 3 weeks in between it's tough to say. By the time the March noreaster happened the snow was pretty gone, at least here, but a large amount still remained up in the mountains, and the reservoir's were full. The local OEM here said that the remaining snowpack up north was holding about 3" of water.

 

Once we got into that flood pattern and the water table was so high we couldn't break it for almost three years. It took the Summer of 2013 staying mostly dry in order to break the streak.

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jerseysnow2010: remember that time 7 years ago when it snowed really hard for 12 hours?

snowlover238: yeah! it was like that time 16 years ago when it also snowed really hard for 12 hours! i got more snow 7 years ago though so it was better

jerseysnow2010: well i got more snow 16 years ago so that storm was better

euroblizzardi95: you're both wrong, there was more wind with the storm 9 years ago and there wasn't a lull so that storm was better

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