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Significant SVR risk 7/14 or 7/15


Mikehobbyst

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Would really appreciate it if someone could take a look at some BUFKIT profiles for the EWR area from now until about 4pm and give me a general rundown on how much lightning these things might be able to produce.

I'm working construction and the boss wants to know if he should just call the day at noon.

Thanks.

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Would really appreciate it if someone could take a look at some BUFKIT profiles for the EWR area from now until about 4pm and give me a general rundown on how much lightning these things might be able to produce.

I'm working construction and the boss wants to know if he should just call the day at noon.

Thanks.

Here is the 12z OKX sounding. I will let you be the judge.

 

OKX.gif

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I know this is banter - but can a mod combine the 2 threads for this event since the svr and the flash flooding usually happen together - would make things less confusing

No I agree. This thread should have never been started. Its all basically one long event, severe, flooding, whatever and should be in one thread

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This time neither of you can blame me. I didn't start either of them :whistle:

 

Flooding is always going to be the biggest threat around here. I doubt we see tornadoes or large hail. At most we'll see some storms produce wind gusts, but some places will have 3-4" of rain+ from last night thru Wednesday so that is the bigger story.

 

Not saying we shouldn't talk about the severe potential its just that we know how that usually plays out around here

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so basically between 3 and 5 is when the storms/flash flooding return today according to the HRRR ? Questionable how much severe we get since daytime heating and more instability is in question with this cloud cover in place

 

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=LongIsland-vis-12

 

also watch this radar looks kind of anemic right now if late this afternoon verifies this is going to have to start getting more active in the next hour or so especially to the southwest of us since the main flow is from that direction with a very slow east movement

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

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Northern NJ has real severe potential if things can clear out. HRRR showing 40-50kts of shear in place by mid-afternoon.

Northern NJ has some real potential for some spinups/small tornadoes and wind damage. Just have to see how the atmosphere destabilizes through this afternoon. If sun wins out today watch out NJ onto LI, HRRR/NAM hi-res thats been posted today already several times is already advertising a fairly potent bow segment squall line forming

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Wayyyy too early to be throwing in the towel on storm chances right now. IMO we do get some storms hitting the tri state area around 5-7pm severity just may be limited due to factors related to instability like sunshine or lack thereof

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Getting sun now. I don't see much activity getting into the area for at least a few more hours

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Wayyyy too early to be throwing in the towel on storm chances right now. IMO we do get some storms hitting the tri state area around 5-7pm severity just may be limited due to factors related to instability like sunshine or lack thereof

One thing that will help us on the coast is a lack of a strong onshore flow. It's humid and still here right now! I think we have a shot today based on experience

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One thing that will help us on the coast is a lack of a strong onshore flow. It's humid and still here right now! I think we have a shot today based on experience

Got that feeling as well! NEG NAO is making even me look better with him being a debbie downer right now :lol: that alone is victory enough for me today
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